johnholmes

All 3 anomaly charts (that I use) now show that ridging looks the most liely outcome at 500mb from day 6 out to day 15. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html this is the first time both have shown the same or very similar pattern and also agree with the idea from NOAA in both 6-10 and its 8-15 day time scale http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php To be objective the above link shows as the first time of a real solid looking +ve anomaly and ridge, prior to this it was a bit 'sit on the fence' for a couple of days. However, unless it does an about face this evening (unlikely in my view) then the pattern does look more ridge than trough especially the further SE one lives.

There are several examples of modified ones making it right across the UK.

Not a nice day, dull with rain at times from about 0830, still the same now with a temperature of 13.8C

cloudy but dry after rain earlier, no wind and a low of 11.6C much less cold than for some time

Some suggestion of a change in emphasis this evening with NOAA, both 6-10 and, rather unsuaully, the 8-14 keeps and increases the idea. link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php ECMWF-GFS was not consistent again this morning, today it is the turn of EC to suggest more ridge than trough driven weather.

Indeed I am, the ECMWF-GFS version is less consistent than NOAA. As you post its versions do suggest that the upper trough may have less influence for a time. No sign of major heat, major surface lows or any early northerly so far. The unknown will continue to be if any tropical storm features get into the Atlantic. If they do then all models can be forgotten until that system has been and gone so to speak. below is the link to the NOAA prediction centre. It is usually fairly accurate on the position and movement of any centres. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Dry no wind, some patchy thick Ci streaks and an isolated patch of Sc, but mostly sunny, a low of 6.9C

yes, something similar, left HK at 2300 local time with 28C and 95% humidity and landed at Frankfurt for fuel en route to Manchester, Frankfurt -6C and snowing, +1C at Manchester and snowing.

Dry, no wind, about 6/8 high level Sc with the sun poking through now and then, a low of 6.6C

not that large -23C Switzerland and +42C in Cyprus

Met Office meteorologists said conditions could mirror those of the 2009/2010 winter which was so long and chilly it was dubbed ‘The Big Freeze.’ Have they actually said this anyone? think I will drop this in an e mail and see what response I get!

Apart from Ci in the east a clear sky, no wind and a low of 5.9C, making it the coldest night since 10 June.

thanks for that I will spend a little time looking first at the link you have given (thank you for that) and those I posted to see what I make of them. Again I will try and get an e mail off to Met although sadly it is so long since I retired I have no direct links into the senior forecasters or researchers.

Interesting that those sets of charts are somewhat different from the links I provided. I have no idea what the link is to those provided by Sebastian. I might e mail UK Met and ask!

I found this link http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/ perhaps some of the comments stem from that. If anyone has a link to the GLOSEA outputs or comments about them can you post them please? thanks

sorry but I simply cannot see any of that on the charts I have linked to in my last post. Of course we may both be quoting from different data. I have no idea where the data sets I have linked to originate from within UK Met. I thought that was their latest model output. Apologies if I am wrong. However, a word of caution. If the GLOSEA you quote is in fact the latest. Ask this question. How many of these have shown similar temperatures over the last couple or so of outputs. ANY model is suspect if it changes from run to run.

nor do I below is the link to their actual charts that they have issued, make of the anomalies as you wish. However, to me they do NOT suggest much in the way of -ve anomalies either at the surface or at 850mb over the area you show from his post. I suspect we are early into trying to make 2+2 = anything but what it should equal. Just my cynical view of course. Folk already mentioning 1947, from what? I have no idea. still it makes for lots of posts in here and provided we all stay polite to one another it can do no harm really. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

"Europe also cold now on JAMSTEC! Following UKMET lead. SST shades of 09 in N Atl...more important than nino there" what UK met lead please? The model I saw suggested no cold of any depth either over UK or Europe Dec-Feb?

So the first two idea are out, UK Met with nothing to excite cold lovers and the one above that will obviously be far more talked about than the Met O idea. Be interesting, even this early, come the end of February, to see which this far out was closest. I know where I would put my money if I was into betting.

Cloudy with thick upper layers and a low of 6.8C, dry.

There is of course a difference between the BBC outputs, both model and spoken compared to the official Met O site. Don;'t ask me why but I have posted about this time and again.

likely as good an answer as some of the more outlandish claims we will see in the coming weeks. So another 62-63 winter on the cards from those prone to predict these things. Funny really when one looks at the Met Office Model output, link below for Europe, not a lot of dark blue for either surface or 850 temperatures in the UK area. perhaps its wrong! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob West coast of Ireland or out in the Atlantic look the best bet!

many thanks

An overcast wet start, low of 10.3C currently

And another change in rainfall totals 35 and 29 mm, pretty much back to its ideas over 72 hours ago. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html much of it due to it upping considerably the next 24 hour rainfall.