johnholmes

The rain finally stopped in the early hours, total 12.4mm, sunny now with some high Sc and patchy Ci, a low of 12.6C

Certainly an interesting few days model watching as the 'big' 3 decide just where the suggested low will track. Also just how much and where will any rain fall.

Even better here Pit, 4.6mm so far, dry now and cloudy with the highest also now at 16.8C, nearly 5C below my average August afternoon temperature.

The joys of being a weather forecaster, you should try it sometime? And Net Wx is hardly the right place to complain about forecasts on TV channels is it?

I suppose it depends on the definition 'poor' but if its sun and heat the yes as it is looking at the moment I am afraid.Although the SE corner may not fare too badly on current charts.

None of the anomaly charts gives any hope of ridging or +ve heights close enough As knocker shows above the Fax chart for Saturday simply puts in picture form what we can expect. to the UK to over-ride the trough/cut off low showing on the 500mb charts in the 6-15 day period. Obviously the detail on actual positions of lows and fronts will not be clear for a day or two but no heat wave seems likely this coming weekend. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Started raining around 0600, 0.8mm so far, so dull, no wind and wet, a low of 12.7C

hiding from the wife not surprising if she sees you with photographs like that! I dare you to send it to the Breakfast team and get them to show Carol but without the viewers being able to see it!

The all too familiar inversion which is there again today causing a lovely sunny morning to become another fairly cloudy afternoon

Dry, no wind, sunny over and east of me, cloudy over and west of me!; a low of 12.1C

Disappointing afternoon after a lovely morning. Not surprising though if one looks at the Net Wx Extra Skew-t for Doncaster. A pretty moist inversion showing that the Cu developing would spread out underneath this inversion. A maximum of 21.7C before the cloud really began to spread out under the inversion with a corresponding drop in temperature.

Hard to call for next weekend I feel. The positions of the trough and ridge, both at 500mb and the surface are obviously crucial to what temperature levels for any part of the country and how settled or unsettled any part is. The 500mb anomaly charts can not give the detail required to get specific ideas for the coming weekend. The trend, using them, to me suggests the ridge being more dominant later in this coming week before the trough reasserts itself over the weekend. Now just how that timing will pan out is for the synoptic models during the coming days to firm up on. As someone commented the 12Z charts from GFS are rather different from those of yesterday. A good summation of what is likely to happen for 2 or 3 days. Changing in emphasis as the models try to work out just what will occur Saturday and Sunday. An interesting few days as we watch and wait.

Lovely start, cool earlier with a low of 6.6C exactly the same as the 15 June, cloudless, no wind, T up to 14.9C now

As mushy suggests above the 'battle' if you want to use that term continues to show as the upper +ve heights and the trough in the contours show little sign of either taking command. The EC-GFS version this morning suggests the trough will be dominant but NOAA has, for the last 2 days, shown, see below that the outcome is far from clear. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and as you can see the 8-14 outlook is pretty similar.

dry and mainly sunny after a fairly cloudy start, a low of 12.1C, no rain after midnight, so the total for Friday was 17.0mm

It illustrates very well the huge difficulty in forecasting precisely, rainfall totals, when, where, let alone storms in any locality. It would be a good idea for those upset by this 'so called fail' to read the Guides on the relevant topics, learn and understand just how complex it all is. Also a warning note for winter-rainfall predictions are far less complex than snowfall predictions, 8 more variables in that than with rain. Meteorology is fun and a great hobby but there really is too much of yah boo its not fair in so many posts. It is a great hobby to read and learn about giving everyone more understanding of its complexities. Give it a go please, you will be surprised how enjoyable the learning will be. To the facts, those in the southern and SE'ern counties who had homes and cars flooded and lesser inconveniences will not be calling it a miss I am sure.

wrong day=can some change it to Friday please-Pit not awake again! Dull with little or no wind here Friday morning with occasional rain after heavier rain early on. A low of 15.1C so a muggy night

The NOAA 6-10 still leaves doubt as to which will be the dominant feature at 500mb. The increasing values of +ve heights to the north or the still present trough just west of the UK. Not possible to call just yet but IF the +ve heights continue to increase then that may become the dominant feature with the surface high beneath the maximum +ve heights holding the surface features under the trough to the west but I would not call it yet. link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

gawd, some of you talk like idiots. Why on earth would a forecaster lie, maybe she should have you in court for deformation of character or something.

Lowest maximum this month at 20.8C and cloudy all day but dry

Quite right no one on BBC reads from a script, they may be told in their earpiece as they go on air that their time slot has changed, usually down, so it is a hard job to get it right to a split second. Only rarely do they not manage that. Pretty impressive really.

dry, mostly cloudy with ble skies still visible to the east, a low of 10.7C

The NOAA output this evening does lend some indication of +ve heights to NE of UK perhaps developing into something more settled. Just where any surface high would settle IF the trend continues is not that easy to pin down. I would imagine NE of the UK and how much ridging into the UK would not be clear for a week or so? link to NOAA below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Also it needs all 3 anomaly charts to show similar ideas before it is a 'done thing'. By Saturday we should know one way or the other for the following weekend or rather 2-3 days before the weekend.

David I did spend 6 months there as a senior forecaster so I do know from first hand just what the weather is like, I was there late September to late March. Not 'wanton obtuseness' David, I speak from factual first hand experience. The weather in Falkland is not that different to the weather in Shetland, I spent 12 months there as well. Both islands have a somewhat 'better' weather feel if that is the word to Anglesey where I spent 5 years. I do try and be as factual and objective as I can on this forum, most folk I hope would agree with this remark.

Dry, cloudless, no wind and a low of 10.4C