johnholmes

Dry, no wind, sunny over and east of me, cloudy over and west of me!; a low of 12.1C

Disappointing afternoon after a lovely morning. Not surprising though if one looks at the Net Wx Extra Skew-t for Doncaster. A pretty moist inversion showing that the Cu developing would spread out underneath this inversion. A maximum of 21.7C before the cloud really began to spread out under the inversion with a corresponding drop in temperature.

Hard to call for next weekend I feel. The positions of the trough and ridge, both at 500mb and the surface are obviously crucial to what temperature levels for any part of the country and how settled or unsettled any part is. The 500mb anomaly charts can not give the detail required to get specific ideas for the coming weekend. The trend, using them, to me suggests the ridge being more dominant later in this coming week before the trough reasserts itself over the weekend. Now just how that timing will pan out is for the synoptic models during the coming days to firm up on. As someone commented the 12Z charts from GFS are rather different from those of yesterday. A good summation of what is likely to happen for 2 or 3 days. Changing in emphasis as the models try to work out just what will occur Saturday and Sunday. An interesting few days as we watch and wait.

Lovely start, cool earlier with a low of 6.6C exactly the same as the 15 June, cloudless, no wind, T up to 14.9C now

As mushy suggests above the 'battle' if you want to use that term continues to show as the upper +ve heights and the trough in the contours show little sign of either taking command. The EC-GFS version this morning suggests the trough will be dominant but NOAA has, for the last 2 days, shown, see below that the outcome is far from clear. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and as you can see the 8-14 outlook is pretty similar.

dry and mainly sunny after a fairly cloudy start, a low of 12.1C, no rain after midnight, so the total for Friday was 17.0mm

It illustrates very well the huge difficulty in forecasting precisely, rainfall totals, when, where, let alone storms in any locality. It would be a good idea for those upset by this 'so called fail' to read the Guides on the relevant topics, learn and understand just how complex it all is. Also a warning note for winter-rainfall predictions are far less complex than snowfall predictions, 8 more variables in that than with rain. Meteorology is fun and a great hobby but there really is too much of yah boo its not fair in so many posts. It is a great hobby to read and learn about giving everyone more understanding of its complexities. Give it a go please, you will be surprised how enjoyable the learning will be. To the facts, those in the southern and SE'ern counties who had homes and cars flooded and lesser inconveniences will not be calling it a miss I am sure.

wrong day=can some change it to Friday please-Pit not awake again! Dull with little or no wind here Friday morning with occasional rain after heavier rain early on. A low of 15.1C so a muggy night

The NOAA 6-10 still leaves doubt as to which will be the dominant feature at 500mb. The increasing values of +ve heights to the north or the still present trough just west of the UK. Not possible to call just yet but IF the +ve heights continue to increase then that may become the dominant feature with the surface high beneath the maximum +ve heights holding the surface features under the trough to the west but I would not call it yet. link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

gawd, some of you talk like idiots. Why on earth would a forecaster lie, maybe she should have you in court for deformation of character or something.

Lowest maximum this month at 20.8C and cloudy all day but dry

Quite right no one on BBC reads from a script, they may be told in their earpiece as they go on air that their time slot has changed, usually down, so it is a hard job to get it right to a split second. Only rarely do they not manage that. Pretty impressive really.

dry, mostly cloudy with ble skies still visible to the east, a low of 10.7C

The NOAA output this evening does lend some indication of +ve heights to NE of UK perhaps developing into something more settled. Just where any surface high would settle IF the trend continues is not that easy to pin down. I would imagine NE of the UK and how much ridging into the UK would not be clear for a week or so? link to NOAA below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php Also it needs all 3 anomaly charts to show similar ideas before it is a 'done thing'. By Saturday we should know one way or the other for the following weekend or rather 2-3 days before the weekend.

David I did spend 6 months there as a senior forecaster so I do know from first hand just what the weather is like, I was there late September to late March. Not 'wanton obtuseness' David, I speak from factual first hand experience. The weather in Falkland is not that different to the weather in Shetland, I spent 12 months there as well. Both islands have a somewhat 'better' weather feel if that is the word to Anglesey where I spent 5 years. I do try and be as factual and objective as I can on this forum, most folk I hope would agree with this remark.

Dry, cloudless, no wind and a low of 10.4C

this is just plain wrong, talking of Falkland summers Endless 14 degrees, cloud and drizzle for you to languish in, all summer.

A word of caution about what the anomaly charts show, see below for the link. They continue to show the major feature is the trough over/close by the UK. They show today a small, note small, +ve anomaly off France and Iberia and including parts of the UK. The ridge and +ve heights N Norway into Spitzbergen continue as they have for several days. yes it is slight change but not to me enough to warrant one or two of the comments about it this evening on here. IF they show an increase in +ve heights tomorrow and the day after then we can start to feel that a change is looking more likely. But not before in my view. I may be wrong of course but several years checking them closely every day makes me reluctant to jump on a major change band waggon. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php this from my earlier post and apologies for quoting from my own post but it does give my feeling about how likely any change is this evening. This is for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day time scales. The output at 8-14 has been as consistent as the 6-10 in showing no sign of any +ve heights of any significance along with no sign of any ridging in the UK area. The ECMWF-GFS output has been less consistent with NOAA (6-10 day) or with one another. For several days they have both toyed with the idea of a ridge and +ve heights being fairly close to the UK (E or NE) to perhaps lend some credence to one or two synoptic model outputs. Neither has been totally consistent with this and this morning they broke ranks with EC showing more of an influence from the ridging to the E/NE than GFS. Unless NOAA 6-10 this evening shows some indication of any leaning towards this idea I think we can dismiss this idea. Indeed I would be surprised if this did happen based on a good many years of daily checking these outputs.

A look at the next 2-3 weeks for the upper air patterns A bit beyond my usual attempts but I will give it a go. The early part is along the very well tried and tested 500mb anomaly charts; NOAA 6-15 days and the ECMWF-GFS 6-10 day anomalies. The second part will be along fairly new ground for me during the summer months, trying to use the MJO output to give some idea of what 500mb patterns we might expect. Looking at the anomaly charts and they are not totally consistent with each other but not too far apart for some general predictions to be made on the likely upper air pattern 6-15 or so days from today. Below are the links to NOAA and ECMWF-GFS most recent outputs and comments about their consistency. NOAA has been quite consistent for some time now. That is for an upper trough to be over or very close to the UK and for any ridging, of anything more than the odd day, to be too far E/NE to be of any major guidance to our surface weather. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php This is for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day time scales. The output at 8-14 has been as consistent as the 6-10 in showing no sign of any +ve heights of any significance along with no sign of any ridging in the UK area. The ECMWF-GFS output has been less consistent with NOAA (6-10 day) or with one another. For several days they have both toyed with the idea of a ridge and +ve heights being fairly close to the UK (E or NE) to perhaps lend some credence to one or two synoptic model outputs. Neither has been totally consistent with this and this morning they broke ranks with EC showing more of an influence from the ridging to the E/NE than GFS. Unless NOAA 6-10 this evening shows some indication of any leaning towards this idea I think we can dismiss this idea. Indeed I would be surprised if this did happen based on a good many years of daily checking these outputs. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html So the occasional suggestion from either GFS or ECMWF synoptic outputs of a sufficiently marked ridge along with a marked decrease in the contour flow to allow some kind of surface high to develop giving either a slack surface flow from somewhere between SSW and ESE seems unlikely to me in the 6-15 day period from today. Now to look at the MJO. I am happy enough using this in the winter as I have used it and collated its use to give me reasonable confidence in being able to use it to extend the prediction of an upper air pattern maybe out to about 3 weeks. Not so in the summer but let’s have a look. I am still of the opinion, right or wrong, that unless the orbit shown is of a reasonable size then it gives little if any guidance on upper air pattern other than what we already have. I only use one output, which is the GFS one. No doubt some will feel this is not sufficient but I believe in simplicity where possible. To use one product consistently seems to me to be better than having several outputs and then having to analyse each to decide which seems the most likely. In all honesty it is at the far reaches of my understanding of meteorology anyway. So to the GFS actual MJO, see below. It is in a very shallow orbit as I call it, correct my terminology someone better practiced in this please if necessary? So it is of little use for comparison in my view. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml So what does the forecast suggest? Again see below http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml Neither of the two outputs GFS or GEFS shows the orbit moving into what I call the significant area that is well away from zero. So to me it offers no guidance as to what the northern hemisphere 500mb pattern might be out towards the end of August. To summarize, 6-15 days possibly longer shows little sign of any major ridge development close enough to the UK to change the current somewhat unsettled pattern. This will allow the occasional day of summery type weather, especially for the SE half of the country. But as we are seeing in the short term forecasts this does allow for, assuming the upper trough remains over/just west of the UK, for the odd day of heat/moisture, allowing thundery outbreaks to work their way northwards. Sadly, for those in the north, there is little sign of any major pattern change that might give some improvement in the farming conditions which was highlighted on breakfast TV this morning. sorry it is on the rather long side

Dry, no wind, 6/8 fairly thick Ci with sun through it, a low of 9.9C

The average for 6-10 days is some way over 70% correct, so out to 10 days that is quite good if you compare the synoptic output at 10 days, see the daily posts from Gibby. They show ECMWF and GFS at about 33%, not much over 50% at 8 days. At 8-14 days I would still put the anomaly charts I use at not far off 65-70% so they are by far the best indicator when used carefully.

very warm night with a low of 16.8C, little or no breeze, about 6/8 cloud of various layers, with sunshine at times

That is a feature of any 8-14 in about 8 cases out of 10. The 'meaning' seems to show a less deep trough or intense high and lower values of both + and -ve heights. What one is looking for in the 8-14 is, either a marked change from the 6-10, rare that happens but it does now and then, or, a continuation of the 6-10 overall pattern, including moving troughs and riges if the wave length is the right length.

Dry, cloudy with a low of 14.0C

so where are they then? Are you referring to their predictions or summation of each month after the start of the next month. confused as to what you mean. that you have a cold bias is pretty obvious. I try to present an objective forecast when I post my thoughts using the 500mb anomaly charts.