johnholmes

Perhaps the most unbiased view of August, at least to the 26th, and the same for summer overall may be in this link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/summer-statistics

cloudless, no wind and a low of 10.6C, the lowest for some time, 16th with 6.6C

dry and fairly sunny with some patchy Sc and Ci, a low of 12.0C

not an expert but I'm sure if you Google that answer will be there. If I get time I'll have a look, might be something to do with the area covered although that is just guessing.

I suspect you are one of those folk who have the half empty glass view rather than the half full. For factual data then the COL site is about as accurate as one can get other than the monthly Weather. In Col for June it showed, countrywide, for surface wind about 13% of surface winds were from the NW quadrant with 10% in July. Perhaps where you live changes winds from any direction into NW. Other statistics I have seen, including daily weather charts for June, not yet seen July also do not agree with your rather adamant posts.

certainly very heavy rain on it here around 0550-0600, the maximum fall rate at 0556 of 106.6mm per hour, total rain 13.0mm

The ECMWF-GFS anomaly is even more down the road of the flow being north of west, differences between them in its intensity, see below. The NOAA version last evening is nothing like as marked but looking like trending that way, again link below. All 3 have been showing this change for 2-3 days now. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php so no more fence sitting, it is going to be a cooler interval, just how settled or unsettled not yet clear. This from 5-6 days from now, possibly starting to show by Sunday but more like Monday into Tuesday I would think.

I've now had 80.6mm of rain with most of this falling in the second half of the month

very heavy rain just before 0600 (106.6mm), total so far 13.0mm, just very light at times now. Not sure this amount was forecast? LA low of 13.9C

The EC-GFS anomaly charts this morning would be a cold fans dream in mid winter, see link below. It does look as though they are leading NOAA this time, confirmation may come this evening from NOAA. If it differes then we are in 'sitting on the fence territory' from next Monday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Dry with a lot of upper cloud layers with some sunshine now and then, a low of 11.9C

So the weather is perfect for Glaciers to form over the Scottish mountains ,perhaps to recede in the Alps? We are certainly at a pivitol time I hardly think that first part is likely; the latter part has been occurring a lot longer than the 30 years I have been visiting the same area of the Jungfrau region.

As a result of a change in the NOAA 6-10 this evening the tilt towards a north of west 500mb flow developing in the 6-10 day period is increased somewhat. Still unclear really but it is unusual for NOAA outputs to swop and change in most circumstances so if tomorrow shows a similar pattern then the odds would really swing to that pattern. link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I think the comments alluding to modern perceptions on how to present weather forecasts is probably very valid. I'm way behind the times and maybe UK Met is also. Perhaps the smartphone app is a good part of why they appear to have lost the contract. As sk suggests re the app, neither am I all that keen on what it shows on my smartphone but then we have to move on, or so they say. Neither new nor old is necessarily better but someone has to make a choice and it appears old fogies like me and perhaps my ex colleagues are in that league. It is, other than the possible loss of work for staff, no great world changing issue. The core services I posted about will remain or I would suppose they will.

my view using the two main sets of anomaly charts=unclear from day 6 the precise pattern but not heat and Euro ridging would be my suggestion?

The coolest morning since Sunday 16th, low overnight of 11.7C, dry with almost total cloud cover, various thick middle level layers it looks like

A lot of speculation with much of it just that. I doubt with the exception of 2 maybe 3 on here have enough access into UK Met to really know what is going on or what the end result may be. (I don't include myself in those numbers-my knowledge is at least 8-10 years old as all my ex colleagues have mostly retired) On what we have been told by BBC and UK Met, or what I have heard and read it is a sad day but the BBC like the Met O is under a great deal of pressure to cut costs as it is the government via our taxes that covers much of the costs. Just one point the Met O was, probably still is, an Executive Agency. That roughly means parts of it are under MOD control and part is required to return a profit. The part under MOD control obviously covers for the service both actual and forecast in any war zone along with routine support for any British bases at home and abroad. It also includes the core computer areas including research or did the last time I got information from someone about 4-5 years ago. It may of course have changed by now. I am not sure where the Met O commitment to the WMO and its being one of only two major aviation centres fits in but would imagine that comes under core services.

Rain started here around 1700, briefly moderate but almost stopped at the moment. A high of 27.1C, this makes 19 days with highs of over 25C and about 6 very close, and 2 of over 31C. Two storm days so not a 'bad' summer for here, at least by my ideas.

As a matter of interest will UK Met still do the Shipping Forecast do you know Jo? Or is that also part of the loss of Met outputs? ta John ps will pm you about something totally different

sorry about that, done in a hurry but not meant that way. The risk of a storm, compared to this time yesterday is very slight in my view. Of course I could be wrong but I have looked at the relevant skew-t diagrams and checked the latest radar.

yep its called a band of rain, unlikely more than that

The person to ask for the most up to date on this is Jo. From my past inside knowledge, most, maybe not all, those who do weather forecasts on prime time BBC1 TV news slots and BBC News 24 are fully qualified Met forecasters. Usually entering with a science degree, sometimes, like Nick L a degree in meteorology. Then at least two forecasting course before going on to tv. Jo may have more up to date comments but that was how it was when I was a Met O forecaster. The first course was about 6 months long and the second around 2 months, very intensive. I believe the graphics currently used by UK Met on BBC tv are from that company.

I think it looks fairly clear, at any rate to me, using my set of anomaly charts, that 6 days from now the upper air pattern will essentially be a westerly across the Atlantic.

Sad but inevitable I suppose in a way. A headache for those staff involved in the many forecast services provided by UK Met so their union will be busy trying to lessen the fall out for them.I wonder where the raw data will come from, UK Met, GFS or ECMWF. The figures Gibby shows each morning on how accurate (or not) the 500mb northern hemisphere data is shows ECMWF is the leader almost every time scale and on a more or less daily basis.Never mind if you fly anywhere the data the airlines use when flying from the UK is always UK Met output.

The storms had cleared away by late evening, its not quite a clear blue sky with bits of Sc, Ac and Ci around, a low of 15.6C