johnholmes

After the severe winter of 1947 when open cast coal mining around the village had to stop, large amounts of snow were buried. In the August there was a picture in the Derbyshire Times of us kids snow balling, the snow only lasted a few hour.

The fog thickened for a time but started to break a bit earlier than Sunday, again almost clear skies now and warmer at 21.0C currently

Foggy again although not as dense as this time yesterday, a low of 4.8C

184 fax charts never verify Can't say I have ever seen a Fax chart that far out, 144 hours is the max that I have seen. Can you post a link please to where you found them? thanks

The fog lifted and by late am it was cloudy with this breaking to half cover lifted St small Cu by 1315, much of the afternoon was sunny and now it is a mainly clear sky with the moon very clear. Not sure I wil lstay around to see the 'red' bit.

An idea of how similar in some ways and yet how different for the ECMWF-GFS anomaly chart this morning http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html both have the upper low about the same place, one=S'ly 500mb flow, the other north of west flow. One has a ridge e of UK and in about the same place the other has a low! Until they stop changing I would not place too much reliance on these two. This especially so while the NOAA 6-10 remains fairly sequential and consistent, see last evening below. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php If it also starts to switch then forget all 3!

Fog about 200m with sky obscured, a low of 5.4C around 0300, guess this must have been when the fog arrived.

dry, half cover of high Sc with some sunshine, a low of 4.7C, still not lower than the value on 10 June with 4.1C

very little cloud other than bits of CuSc on horizons with a low of 7.7C

but not on the anomaly charts, they are much more reliable, especially with NOAA's version especially if it is similar over consecutive days. It has been showing similar patterns for 3 days or so. Thus it is far more likely than the 4x output per day from GFS. links as usual below NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html In my view after many years of daily watching these charts I would be very surprised if the GFS prediction was more correct than either NOAA 6-10 or ECMWF ideas.

dry and mainly sunny, a low of 10.3C, some way above the average low for this time in September

A good read for a coffee or tea break

I am going to sit this out as it is a long time since I was actively involved and my memory is not what it used to be. You do raise some interesting points, perhaps if Jo reads this she may answer for us. Perhaps those that have recently done their Meteorology degrees also?

Not sure of any verification to answer your question but from watching charts for many years then the period mid August into early November and sub tropical systems can upset all models. The amounts of moisture and energy they release are enormous and no one yet seems to have been able to feed the right data into the model programmes when they do occur to get a good prediction for our area. hope that helps. Others may say something different.

As with any time of the year the anomaly charts, for all the detractors we see on here, gives the most reliable outlook on what the general weather pattern is likely to be over the 6-15 day time scale. As with any model IF any sub tropical systems get into the North Atlantic then that prediction is likely to be wrong. So after looking at the anomaly charts I always look at the NOAA site to see what MIGHT upset the apple cart. Currently all 3 anomaly charts I use every day of the year show an upper dige as the dominant feature from about day 5 to 15 possibly longer.Detail of course will come from the synoptic models. As to the Hurricane area on NOAA, see link below http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Read their predictions on expected tracks then look at the synoptic models to see what they show. To me, at the moment, there seems only a small probability of either of them causing any headaches in a reasonable time scale. But keep watching!

mostly blue sky, no wind and a low of 9.2C

my usual guide to days past 5 or 6=anomaly charts

Yes, 2 weeks or so of settled weather about 2/3 of the UK, exceptions possibly nw/w Scotland parts of nw N Ireland. The key for warmth and sun will be just where the surface feature sets up.

Dry but cloudy with a low of 7.8C

All 3 anomaly charts (that I use) now show that ridging looks the most liely outcome at 500mb from day 6 out to day 15. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html this is the first time both have shown the same or very similar pattern and also agree with the idea from NOAA in both 6-10 and its 8-15 day time scale http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php To be objective the above link shows as the first time of a real solid looking +ve anomaly and ridge, prior to this it was a bit 'sit on the fence' for a couple of days. However, unless it does an about face this evening (unlikely in my view) then the pattern does look more ridge than trough especially the further SE one lives.

There are several examples of modified ones making it right across the UK.

Not a nice day, dull with rain at times from about 0830, still the same now with a temperature of 13.8C

cloudy but dry after rain earlier, no wind and a low of 11.6C much less cold than for some time

Some suggestion of a change in emphasis this evening with NOAA, both 6-10 and, rather unsuaully, the 8-14 keeps and increases the idea. link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php ECMWF-GFS was not consistent again this morning, today it is the turn of EC to suggest more ridge than trough driven weather.

Indeed I am, the ECMWF-GFS version is less consistent than NOAA. As you post its versions do suggest that the upper trough may have less influence for a time. No sign of major heat, major surface lows or any early northerly so far. The unknown will continue to be if any tropical storm features get into the Atlantic. If they do then all models can be forgotten until that system has been and gone so to speak. below is the link to the NOAA prediction centre. It is usually fairly accurate on the position and movement of any centres. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents