johnholmes

how about putting where you are in your avatar please, helps make for enjoyment of everyone? thank you

storm centre just passimg west of me, fairly frequent thunder, the odd crack, some lightning flashes but fairly bright to east so not many really visible. Rainfall at about Moderate+_ on rain gauge but much heavier judging from noise in trees at end of garden!

all around but not overhead, type 9 Cb's

same here, I suspect T=28C may be the value, with Td 16+C that is the local starting point.

T=26.6C Td=17.7 with longish spells of sunshine, variable cloud types, chiefly Cu 1, tiny bits of Sc and some Ci

see my post above-its local not imported for your area today

The Doncaster Net Wx skew-t predict at06z is not far different from what I suggested using the Watnall 00z data, tops perhaps not quite as high. I would be pretty surprised if those parts that get to 25-27C or more with Td of 14C+ some as high as 17+C do not get storms developing. One other thing to look for, well more than one, are very local effects, so 1) pressure falling increasing rising air 2)wind variations, convergent winds, much as the model showed yesterday although not necessarily in the places it might occur today 3)areas of high ground giving increased risk of air rising pretty quickly enhancing storm probabilities.

an indication of what MAY happen over central and inland areas that reach 26-28C using the Watnall actual skew-t from 00z last night is shown below. Note how much area there is between the predicted line a parcel of air might take and the actual curve at midnight. Part of this is used to arrive at some of the exotic terms folk use! ignore the jet=put it in for something then found I could not take it out! Ac Cas also shown on the asbent approx 700-500mb, bit of an inversion then but it could go through that perhaps?

my notes below after spending time looking at the 3 main anomaly charts and synoptic outputs from EC and GFS over the past couple of days. Sat 22 aug Ec-gfs http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Well today and they both show some indication of the ridging/+ve heights ec had yesterday, and to some extent they each had for a couple of days before. Both suggest a flow n of w into the uk as a result. Until noaa shows this I am not taking ec-gfs idea as the most likely solution. Their persistence, not consistent over several days with one another though, does lend some doubt as to what may happen Also to possibly back up ec-gfs charts is the fact that, using the 00z output, both ec and gfs synoptic models are pretty closely aligned with this idea out to 240h. That said though, neither of them at 12z Thursday showed a similar idea and not consistent prior to that either. So I sit on the fence at the moment tending towards the NOAA solutution until it changes, if it does. It would not be the first time since the GFS update last autumn (was it?) for the synoptics to lead the way ahead of the anomaly charts. Three times I think and in the previous 6 years of checks only 2 possibly 3. fine mate except for some reason the words are pretty small so I've taken the liberty of increasing the size?

It could be both although the main threat, for today, will be the surface heating and humidity inland. The current Met O warning seems about right to me.

A dry dawn with 7/8 cloud cover, this broke to a real mix of cloud types to about 5/8 then either a shower or burst of rain, then well broken CuSc with bits of Ac and Ci. Much the same now, the cloud comes and goes with the sun in and out, humid, a low of 17.0C and 0.2mm of rain (more in Doncaster itself), T is now 20.2C and Td 17.17.2C

I thought that is what the 8-14 showed last evening, after several days with the trough west of the UK being dominant with a flow from south of west. It seemed a consistent chart having watched how the trough had been changed slowly over the previous days? What it has not so far suggested is any sign of a ridge at 500mb or even +ve height values in the Azores area. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Well as everone knows I tend to take the 3 main anomaly charts as a first class guide to what the upper air pattern is likely to be 6-15 days down from day1. The EC-GFS have done another marked change, well EC has, over the past two days, see below for the output this morning, with a Greenland ridge being shown. Not shown on GFS nor NOAA so at the moment I would discount that, when looking over the past 4-5 days outputs from all 3. Of the 3, as is often the case, the NOAA ouput has shown less variation and is the one, in these situations, over several days, that I would believe more than either of the other two. See NOAA idea below, both 6-10 and 8-15 outputs. As you can see the suggestion is for the maintenance of the trough west of the UK, no sign of any height rises let alone ridging, either from the Azores region nor Greenland. So I stick with NOAA until it suggests differently over at least 2 and preferrably 3 outputs. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html That of course is 6 days away and we have a fascinating period coming up in the next 12-96 hours, and surpiringly to me not a lot of interest being shown in this thread. The models are still not settled on the actual timing and weather sequence, neither are the Exeter folk as we see almost each TV broadcast they do-so very interesting to see just how this does play out. Just noticed the post from Nick F with 10 'likes' well worth a read for those not having read it yet-thanks Nick

Dry, mostly cloudy with a breeze, amazing Min at 18.6C. Not sure but this is probably the highest ever in 18 years, certainly the highest in 2 years.

I queried the precise timing, it does not match what is actual cloud cover statistics I suspect and the definition of Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) It is an interesting postulation but not more than that in my view. I may be wrong but would need scientific evidence before I believe it.

"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850." where do you get that statement from please?

Dull and damp with a bit of breeze after a burst of moderate rain late evening, a low of 14.9C

ah Anglesey in Summer, I remember it well, 5 years, gales in summer, well not quite as frequent as the winter months but a fair number.

in a canvas shroud, The last stitch.................................. that would be me-happy on canals and rivers where I control how much and how quickly the boat goes up and down!

Yes, a sad year as it is the final display season but no matter how much money might be raised the old lady and those expert companies that have kept her flying cannot prolong her flying life anymore. Still if you buy a summer raffle ticket you get the chance to sit alongside Martin W as does a fast taxi, meaning she is almost airborne on the runway. I suspect they will continue to do these runs for a few years to come-well I hope so living close by her permanent home. I can imagine on her return from the final show/flypast, on whatever day that is in late September that the roads around Doncaster airport will be jam packed.

IF I had managed to live through a trip I would have been a skeleton back in port, sea sick constantly so a great way to lose weight!

weather permitting you get the Vulcan on Sunday NOT Saturday as the organisers were concerned about crowd numbers. Just hope the weather is good enough for her to operate. Remember it is not state of the art but late 50's she is equipped with.

I think all thought of ridging playing a major part for most of the UK is stone dead looking at how the anomaly charts have evolved over the past few days. That covers the next 2 weeks or so. Glimpses of hope for the SE quarter but not for anywhere else it seems. What is not in the equation yet and will be sure to upset every applecart is the entry of any ex tropical storms. No model of any kind is able to deal with these from any time scale until maybe T+48 possibly T+72 for a general idea.

The 'boat' you show looks okay for a river but not for hurricane force Atlantic gales, makes me feel queasy looking at it!

A subject close to your heart k how on earth anyone could volunteer to be tossed about on the Atlantic for days on end is something I will never understand, ivital though the task was prior to satellites and floating buoys.