johnholmes

dry with a about half cover Sc Ac and Ci, after rain overnight, between 0300-0400 looking at Davis, a low of 9.7C

lucky you then, no sunshine of any note here, generally cloudy all day, a high of 16.8C the same as yesterday

Mostly cloudy and dry with a bit of breeze, a low of 10.6C

a very interesting post there, I wonder if the raw Met O model, in a week or so time may go along with this. It might just be another part of the not yet really understood building blocks for seasonal forecasting.

It will be interesting to see what the NOAA anomaly charts show this evening. Last night they kept the trough well west with the upper ridge the main player. This morning, not unlike the EC run you have shown, brings the trough into play with the ridge moving away east. The GFS version is less keen although it goes some way towards this idea. To me the EC anomaly has moved the trough too far too fast looking at the past few days and the overall wavelength but it may be picking up something prior to NOAA. It seems to be doing this now and then in the past 9-10 months. It would be really interesting to know what the professionals feel about this apparent 'change' in the anomaly charts? Looking again at the daily charts I file. What may have happened with the EC output is this. Previously it had a cut off low well south off Iberia. It has dropped this with just one main trough. By merging the two this may be the reason it 'appears' to have moved the main trough so far east.

mostly cloudy with various layers of cloud from Sc upwards, a low of 9.3C at the moment

here it is

thanks-some ride that, a big advert for Ford in those days?

Cantley August 2015 weather summary A very wet month, wettest August in 18 years. Even wetter than 2006. Just about average temperatures with afternoon a touch above and overnight a bit below average. Two quite notable storms the same day as the wettest=22nd, one fractionally west of my back garden, the second one further to N and NE Mean=17.6 (17.5) Avge Max=22.6 (22.3) highest daytime=22nd with 28.8 and the lowest daytime=15.7 on 14th Avge Min=12.6 (12.9) with the coldest night=6.6 on 16th and warmest=18.6 on 21st Rainfall=91.8 mm the wettest August in 18 years records beating 2006; the wettest day (2 storms) was 22nd with 22.1mm; 15 days with 0.2 mm or more and 8 with 1.0 mm or more No snow, fog hail or frost and 1 day with storms (2)

dry and mostly cloudy after slight rain in the early hours, a low of 9.5c, lowest since 16 August

Yes could well be. The first sentence of the 'Weather' log for June= 'As in May there was, in the mean, an enhanced westerly gradient across the BI, in June though a greater anticyclonic bias ...' I am not sure if the westerly refers to the gradient wind or the surface flow. If it was the gradient then that would fit with the wind rose shown with surface winds more south of west. Of course where anyone lives plays a big part, on a hill in an exposed or sheltered valley, to the lee of the main wind flow. One feature here, more in August I think than the other two months, was the number of times the morning began with clear blue skies only to fill in with cloud before lunch time. A look at the relevant skew-t showed why=moist inversion.

Hoping not to get in too much trouble over pasting this in from the COL report for the UK for July as you can see from the above the prevailing UK'wide wind direction was south of west below is a similar output for June When August arrives I will post that. Looking at the data, some of it from Met approved sites then I still find it hard to accept some (not all) the above comments about relentless NW winds etc. Anyway it is only the weather, I'm happy with the stats for my garden, they also seem to fit quite well with 3 other sites in the local area. Yep, having spent 5 years forecasting for this area I am very aware of its local climate.

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I think my back garden must be on another planet to some of you lot, basic data below Summer 2015 at Cantley June Mean T=15.4 (15.7) Avge Max=21.1 (20.4) Absolute Max=31.8 Rain=36.8=about 10mm below 18 year average General=14 days over 21C and 4 days over 25C July Mean T=17.4 (17.5) Avge Max=22.6 (22.1) Absolute Max=34.8 is the highest in any month in 18 years. Only beaten once in this area in over 75 years. Rain=47.2mm= just a touch above average General=two quite warm spells and 7 days, early in the month over 25C and 18 days over 21C August Mean T=17.6 (17.5) Avge Max=22.6 (22.3) Absolute Max=28.8 with 23 days over 21C and 8 days over 25C Rain=91.8mm= wettest August in 18 years data and more than half in the last 12 days General=warmer start than finish but not a bad month in spite of the rain total. Overall summer Mean=16.8 Avge max=22.1 Days over 25C=19 Days over 21C=70 Just 3 storms Overall I would judge summer here, my back garden, as not bad, fairly warm, a few really hot days and a decent amount of sunshine although I have no figures to back up this comment Compared to 2014 it is some 0.6C down on the Mean 0.2C on the average max

Summer 2015 at Cantley June Mean T=15.4 (15.7) Avge Max=21.1 (20.4) Absolute Max=31.8 Rain=36.8=about 10mm below 18 year average General=14 days over 21C and 4 days over 25C July Mean T=17.4 (17.5) Avge Max=22.6 (22.1) Absolute Max=34.8 is the highest in any month in 18 years. Only beaten once in this area in over 75 years. Rain=47.2mm= just a touch above average General=two quite warm spells and 7 days, early in the month over 25C and 18 days over 21C August Mean T=17.6 (17.5) Avge Max=22.6 (22.3) Absolute Max=28.8 with 23 days over 21C and 8 days over 25C Rain=91.8mm= wettest August in 18 years data and more than half in the last 12 days General=warmer start than finish but not a bad month in spite of the rain total. Overall summer Mean=16.8 Avge max=22.1 Days over 25C=19 Days over 21C=70 Just 3 storms Overall I would judge summer here, my back garden, as not bad, fairly warm, a few really hot days and a decent amount of sunshine although I have no figures to back up this comment Compared to 2014 it is some 0.6C down on the Mean 0.2C on the average max

Just had a very hefty shower, 26.2mm at its heaviest after a decent morning and early afternoon, max of 20.6C now 14.4C

From the 500mb anomaly perspective the first 15 days look largely blocked at 500mb, some fairly minor differences between the models and GFS with itself. Overall though they keep the upper block as the main ingredient of our weather. Remember they are averages so day to day variability can occur but nothing prolonged at variance with the idea of a lock. Not that warm especially under clear night skies. Probably below average rainfall and no sign of deep lows. Of course it is hurricane season and if one or a tropical storm make it into the north Atlantic then the anomaly charts will be not a great deal of use. So watch for any of these being predicted to move into the Atlantic. links NOAA last evening http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php ECMWF-GFS this morning http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Finally there is nothing in the MJO current or predicted output (GFS version) that would suggest any marked difference from what the anomaly charts show. Again the MJO is not a tool to use to try and predict any tropical storm or hurricane development in the Atlantic.

Rain in the early hours, dry now, no wind and about half cover of CuSc, a low of 10.6C

August is ending up a bit damp! 91.4mm so far, 71 mm in the last 14 days

Looking out 10-14 days ahead and upper ridging is predicted on ECMWF-GFS, NOAA (6-10 and 8-14) and out to day 10 on NAEFS charts. So I would be surprised if this upper pattern did not persist through the 6-15 day period. Little sign on any of them of +ve heights SW of the UK, if anything -ve heights suggested, at least, on NAEFS. What does show is that the +ve anomaly is weakened from about day 9-10.

Overcast with light rain, no wind, current temperature is the lowest at 12.8C, 5.8mm so far

cloudy and dry with a low of 11.3C

The anomaly charts support totally the idea of a blocked scenario. Almost a cold lovers delight in mid winter. Words like blocking and meridional would be bandied about. NOAA link, below and not shown but ECMWF-GFS was along similar lines this morning.Another case of them leading NOAA, this is probably about the 4th time this has happened since last autumn. With a 'new' GFS to come the accuracy of that model in its various guises will be something all will hope is up to ECMWF at least. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

dry and quite bright, even sunny at times, through 3/4 cover of upper cloud layers, a low of 11.4C

Perhaps the most unbiased view of August, at least to the 26th, and the same for summer overall may be in this link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/summer-statistics