johnholmes

thanks Paul, a sad world we live in

It seems to do that check each time I log on, 3 times last evening, and would not allow me in; just now another check but then okay and the link worked, last evening let me in one occasion but nothing would open on the forum?

some patchy Sc and Ci but a mainly clear sky, the low so far is 6.0C bottomed out at 5.7C just after 8am, winter is on its way with lowest temperatures so late on.

ditto to above

saying please might help you be given that link mate!

almost claer sky for a change, a low currently of 7.2C, still drifting down.

the anomaly charts, rather NOAA and ECMW part of the EC-GFS this morning, suggest a fairly rounded 500mb trough for the UK and then a broad westerly back to about the Gt Lakes, heights on the 8-14 far south show 558DM so not especially mild as an average although day to day will show variations as we get surface features running through this flow. link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

Looking forward to a change in wind direction, at least we should see the sun at times, however changeable it becomes. Sun sightings have been infrequent for the last few days! The temperatures by day should also show an improvement, 13.1C at the moment with only last Monday almost reaching the average afternoon value for here=14.4C (14.6)

Dry and cloudy again, mild with a low of 10.3C

yes the NOAA 8-14 does show the UK under a more mobile 500mb flow. There are indications of increasing +ve heights way up n over n Norway. A couple of days down the line the anomaly 6-10 should be picking this up IF it is real? link http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Even if it does then its influence would be far from clear, if it has any major effect on the UK.

Cloudy once again and feeling damp but no actual rain or drizzle falling, a low of 7.8C thanks to all the cloud

link to MJO for GFS http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/NovemberPhase3all500mb.gif it seems to suggest that no strong ridging N or NE close enough to affect the UK?

hi M re this which was one of your comments on how the flow will develop But I am saying in my view the overall signal (not just the GFS op) is that the pattern is likely to be more amplified than that and if correct that will be reflected in due course by the anomaly charts. I will be very surprised if that happens. I think 3 times in the last 12 months the GFS Op has led the way to a pattern change. That in itself is highly unusual and is probably a function of the GFS update. The rest of the time then the anomaly charts (the 3 I use) has been the one to lead the way, be it to stay with the current pattern or to signify a pattern change. Don't just believe me, check the statistics for how often either ECMWF or GFS at 10 days are correct, generally less than 4 out of 10. Three years of daily checks showed the anomaly picking the pattern correctly (at 500mb) on about 7 out of 10 times. Even with the upgrades and I have not got the time I am afraid to do another daily objective check as I did before, I have not seen any real change in this. That is other than the 3 instances, possibly 4, I quote earlier. Still having different opinions is no issue to me and is I hope not to anyone else. At the end of the day, after 20+ years forecasting, I have got used to weather putting egg on my face. But it is fun trying to get the right pattern 6-15 days ahead. Trying to pass that on to the surface is an even bigger challenge, decades away in my view before the surface progs are as accurate as the 500mb ones are today. apologies for cluttering up the model thread. The anomaly charts do show that a westerly flow is going to develop at 500mb, much as the link below shows. How long that will last is beyond my ability but the GFS version of MJO shows it may last longer than 15 days. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

I expect the anomaly charts will begin to reflect this pattern and we will get a better idea how far West any block will be In fact it was 2 days ago they began to move towards this pattern

Another eight days or so of HP over the UK which has been very consistent for a while so enjoy! As to 'enjoying' the current high it does depend where you live,since Monday the sun has been a rare visitor to the skies in this area. I would agree that the indicators do point to a more westerly upper flow starting from around day 5 from now. It may well be a rather slow process as this type spreads down from the NW.

dry and cloudy with a low of 9.6C just after midnight

as always V a first class and objective post from you-thank you

you could of course have zero hours either falling or lying, how would that feel?

sad - the end of an era!

thanks for that Fergie, always good to get fact rather than fiction

A place I have always wanted to visit but never made it, and I so envy you living out there, and being able to converse, languages was never my strong point but hey ho too late now.

almost certainly she will have been aware of Met O input to the BBC, via one of the forecasters, I would guess?

Just mulling over comments in the thread, and good to see constructive comments from folk with differing views. I never or very rarely post regarding the anomaly charts without having looked at the synoptic models and over the winter the MJO, also at times reading the technical bits from NOAA about how the models seem to be predicting the long wave pattern for the northern hemisphere. Without doing this then one is liable to get a rather blinkered view of the output. This maybe why, in winter with so much hope going on to snow and frost conditions, we see posts that are based solely on one model and one run then hypothesising on what might happen if one thing or another happens. Next thing we know the model thread descends into minor chaos for a short time, not unlike what the synoptic models are apt to do now and then over a 24 or 48 hour period before settling back down. Nothing wrong with this approach but do be aware it is less likely to be a balanced view than a more widespread, careful assessment, at all model outputs. Let’s just hope and all try this winter period to keep our posts respectful to one another and allow anyone posting charts to their viewpoint. End of jh plea! back to the outlook, say 5 days onwards. Not much change in the overall upper pattern close by the UK at first but slowly the more changeable/unsettled idea of the Atlantic beginning to affect more parts of the country looks like happening. The anomaly charts and the MJO (GFS) suggest this into early November, or do so according to my interpretatopn of their outputs, see links below http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php I would agree with phil above re no major Atlantic wind up on offer so far.

not snowing in the village yet but forecast to do so, first reasonable cover on the ski runs down to about 5500ft, but it will thaw probably once the current cold pool warms out. Fingers crossed for a good snow season though. Last season just made it prior to the Lauberhorn. http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/?langId=2

Dry, mostly cloudy, a low of 6.9C