using the anomaly charts there seems little doubt that troughing will become the main feature in the 6+ day outlook. Again it looks, in spite of day to day variations between one another and themselves, that ECMWF-GFS has led the way for the change before NOAA. To me this is really interesting as over 5 years, prior to this last year, that was a very very rare event. This must be the 4th or 5th time this has happened in the past 12 months. Of course it has still not happened but it looks a 70+% bet this evening. At least the flow is from south of west (at 500mb) although with a height of about 564DM and from the Gt Lakes area and further back from eastern Russia don't expect a heat wave. It also look fairly changeable or even unsettled with a fairly brisk 500mb flow and the trough pretty close to the UK. To me the flow does not suggest any very deep lows developing close to the uk. However, keep an eye on NOAA Hurricane outputs, just one getting into the Atlantic and the models do their equivalent of 'toys out of prams'.