Severe Siberian icy blast

Then looking at the ECM anomaly chart at face value there's certainly worse charts out there. With a deep trough to our East you would think that's a cold trough we'r been dictated too by. Always have the chance of northerly outbreaks from that position ?

IDO we have a very interesting 10 days coming up and a move toward a colder outlook beginning to show its hands with charts like this quite typical of the developments recently I really find your comments quite amusing to be honest , not sure whether it's a wind up or your actually serious , Ian f mentioned nothing of the sort , he just mentioned the possibility of it drying out more so toward the South , which really opens the door to many possibilities , almost every possibility is on the table taking his comments on face value . But to pick a chart 2 wks away is bizarre to be honest .

Haha glad to hear a more positive Nick today mate ! Yes looking much better moving forward , a cold wk by any standards , and an interesting wkend aswel , much better model viewing for sure . Still finely balanced though and we need to see these charts echoed in the meto really , there models have been bang on the money so far , but yes positives going forward . Just out of interest Nick , where do you live? Because if you live in France then iv never saw someone show so much interest in a country they don't actually live in lol !

Yea iv been watching this for a while , infact the last 5 days of so when I first noticed it , with the low over Southern greenland having that negative tilt , it looks primed to go under the block , if we can cut the high off toward Iceland , then we could well be on the money .Certainly in fi the models looking keen on weakening the vortex , with signs of a Scandi high in 10 days time maybe 12 days ? All up for debate , but the models looking like they maybe responding to strat warming , be interesting times into feb .

For me the best thing about this morning is how the look of the vortex in both of GFS's and the ecm , it's really showing signs of weakening and looks likes the last 3'rd of jan may be the turning point for our winter .

He just simply means to clarify the drama regarding "will we , won't we " see a SSW short term . I really don't see the need to analyse every single word and dissect it to the letter ! It's simply just a clarification of where we are stratospherically speaking , and not a weather forecast .

It's just the fact that we all live on this tiny island that's completely governed by the jet . We watch areas of southern Europe even toward turkey at time get true cold air and 850's of -10 when we bask in air of +2,3's . It makes me hate where I live . A country on our latitude shouldn't find it near impossible to get snow . We require the vortex to act in a disorderly mannor to deliver us some high lat blocking which is going against the grain to start with . Whilst USA has a standard cold trough digging south taking very cold air south . But yet that very very rarely happens here. What another crap winter

A more meridional pattern , really means amplification upstream , sounds like a midatlantic high , not a greeny block , so a northwest flow maybe , not the holy grail by any means b up plenty of time for these hints to gather pace and develop . Who's mentioned poor set up for the South ? Naturally the South will always be warmer than the North generally , and apart from an easterly wind , the South will always get a more tempered version of events when winds are from the north , really depends on how much cold air we can get South and for how long. Obviously the South can get snow in feb of March given the right Synoptics .

I wholly agree . High pressure over Siberia in November has been replaced by low pressure , and I personally feel that's been a massive factor in what's gone wrong so far. Every bench mark that was made during October/nov , has been reversed , it's certainly made me sceptical regarding how credible some theories are .

All very interesting but like you say it's a long way off and we'v all saw how ens can bark up the wrong tree , iv saw lots of times almost an entire suit go for cold , only for it to back off on the next set. Sounds nice but it all depends on how much amplification we can get out of the high to our west , if it's true polar sourced air then cold and snowy from the northwest , if its cold zonal then don't expect snow in the South . All to play for at this range mind.

I agree in the sense at the minute it all looks very zonal and a complete opposite to what the signals were going for . The only thing about the models I will say is considering we'r not in the zonal pattern yet , it seems today maybe the day of transition ? My point being is very often we can see the models banging the zonal drum , but once the change has actually occured it then picks up the next pattern , so at the minute the only strong signal coming through is indeed this zonal spell , but once it's actually hear the models will then look for the next pattern change , if indeed there is one ? Il be amazed if there's no troposphere response from the warmings , especially the one over Greenland area , but maybe another week or 10 days before the mods actually pick upon it , although there seems to be a quick strat/trop response at the min , it's still likely to be a good 7 days at least for the propegation to filter through ? All speculation at the minute but I'd be very surprised if we go through January without having at least one big cold spell and snow . Even with an average uk winter we would squeeze out 2 or 3 cold spells with at least one widespread snow event . So no need to panic just yet , just more damn patience !

I think it's only a matter of time now before we see some HLB Over our side of the pole , with the vortex taking such a battering over the next 10 days especially with the warmings forecast to develop more over the Greenland area really may well open the door to opportunities down the line for us. I can't help feeling that Matt should of stuck to his original prediction of a SSW on the 5th jan ! Beofre he retracted this prediction that is !

I think he meant rain to snow in other areas , other than the ones mentioned . That's how I would take that ?

Erm no u can't . Freezing rain yes . Snow , no . It can't fall from the clouds frozen if it's above freezing there can you? If there's a cold inversion the rain rain will freeze on impact if the air at ground level is below 0c .

Iv just watche a live bbc24 forecast and that's not what they said. They're uncertain and showed a lot of snow in the rain and that's at the warmest part of the day , it's gonna carry on into the night and once evaporative coolungb kicks in with sun down I'm quite optimistic of snow to low levels

This is the best news all winter . Look at the flux direction . We need to see more runs like this but things are about to get interesting . Don't worry about the trop charts for 14 days away there come kicking and screaming into line . Once this low clears by sat we should perhaps to see hints of a change . Looking good into jan , especially to have Judah and his team on side !

Iv just been having a good look around and from my tipsy eyes even at 11am lol it appears we are now looking at a fairly decent snow event and given the last minute adjustments on Xmas day it's gonna take a hell of a lot people by surprise m so the met need to bring this to everyone's attention quick as Boxing Day shinanagans are gonna be disrupted by the White stuff . People with elevation need to be careful .

For what appears to be for the sake of a few insane/depressed souls in hear that take absolutely every model output run as gospel , it seems that ones forget where we are in terms of background drivers and signals , we have saw how many times the models struggle with anything more than 4 days away so my advise is have a good day , drink wine , eat lots of food and see your family's .Much more toying with the models in the coming days . Theres large warmings happening high up above as I type and impacts although unknown certainly do not support zonal tosh . If we get a sinking high it's likely to be very tempary if at all , with more reasons to believe in a Scandi high than the Atlantic express . In the mean time we have the Boxing Day low fiasco which has moved considerably South in the last 24 hours which looks like bringing snow to some , with backedge snow for many in the zone from say the Midlands/northern England . Followed by an easterly . After that we have no idea . But like Tamara's excellent posts say don't expect zonal and don't expect a bartlett !!!

I think vitally we need the arrows to keep turning degrees , so the further to the right (poleward flux) the better . It aids the strat split and does us the world of good in terms of how much of an impact the warmings can have for mid lats.

We can see what I mean hear , Jet riding over the top of the ridge , , which means no undercuts , and no favourable easterly fetch . However further on Into fi the GFS sends the jet South , which in turn sends the low pressure systems diving South undercutting the block which in turn would likely lead to a snowy spell , given its low res , it becomes rather messy but you can the point .

Whether we get a full blown easterly or a cold high with a slight easterly element or a high sat directly over us remains to be seen , at the moment the coldest air goes southeast into Europe , it looks dry cold and frosty rather than snowy but still very interesting all the same . Just keep our feet on the ground as nothing is done and dusted and we no how volatile the models are , but it does look a good bet with a Scandi high been odds on in some from way or another . We really need the jet to stay South , we do not want the northern arm firing up and going over the top of the ridge , like it does on the ECM , we have low pressure systems moving Northeast over the block which will sink it eventually . So we want a clean split jet , with the majorly going under . If we can get that , then a snowy set up will inevetibly follow with lows going under meeting the cold air and having a good battle . In the mean time the ens look cold And another major warming all the way through increasing in latter stages with a nicer split The vortex looking very battered as we go into jan , I'm now thinking its only a matter of time untill we face our first major cold spell in 2 years .

Many thanks

Warmings from start to finish becoming stronger throughout the run , great split through fi aswel , with the final frame showing this Feeling much more positive for January now , wonder why Judah Cohens was down beat the other day ? Did anyone read his blog ? I haven't been able to find it !

Absolutely pointless in analysing where snow will fall , let's get all models agreeing on where the storm track is . The one I prefer would be South/southeast , we have a chance of developing a Scandi high , with low pressure to its South then we stand a good change that the low pressure will prop the high up and stop it sinking over the top of us . We all no how the models are chopping and changing so nothing's off the table . But with what's going on in the strat things should continue to and get even more interesting . Let's split this vortex and watch it come to its knees . Don't be fooled by a compact vortex been shown at t200 things will look completely different in a wks time I feel . And re the ECM monthly , like you say it's difficult to dissect without seeing the clusters . Not sure I'd buy into a zonal flow in jan much at all tbh.

Far better hights ridgging North on the op on this run starting at a relatively early time , from the initial northerly behind the low on 27th , more amplification . I feel we are about to start seeing developments moving into next wk with a poss easterly ?