Bristawl Si

At this rate Alton Towers will be out of business!

Time to bring out the NW 'Big Guns' to restore some calm and rationality, before this thread descends into model output anarchy! Is GP about this eve? IF some of the models have picked up on a pattern change before the previously forecasted one has even begun then it just goes to show this forecasting business is just as difficult now as it was in the days before super computers. And would represent one of the biggest model changes on here since i first started viewing. BUT as the weekend and following week still hasnt even arrived, in real time, only time will tell.

The computer blew a fuse....seems to be having a similar effect in the Mod Disc thread this eve!

Hope you're wrong AWD. My hunch says we're in for a lot of snow fun & games in 1st few days of December. Bought snow boots at clarks village today - prob jinxed it for us for the winter! LOL

Forget the numerous weather soothsayers on here - just read GP's thoughts plus Chiono's, a dose of TWS, Steve Murr, Big John Holmes and a couple of others

Pathetic really. One Run - Cmon CC u know better than that!

Extract from GP's latest post in Mod Disc Thread 2nd week of December - "Moving ahead, GEFS mean also picking up on a slight westward shift in the blocking high allowing an attempted Atlantic attack from the south west." Could we see one of the infamous LPs approaching the south west, getting halted and dumping copious amounts of snow? Long way off but we can dream!

I think it was always progged as a "slow starter" and next week being "a changeover". Not sure "bitter cold" has even been forecasted anyway........unless i've missed something last few days.

It's 22nd November - the tastier charts are still 9/10 days away. That takes us up to 2nd December. Winter aint really started, so why the distress-type post? Grab a beer and chill out!

No - lesson of the day (and everyday) is not follow every run and take them as 'given'. The general trend is the key.

7TWS- Ian F was hinting at poss snow event on N/NW flank Sat night - not major but a possibility - any thoughts?

That's a very interesting point amongst tonight's excitement. The strat hasnt been playing ball - yet we're on the cusp of a pretty decent start to winter synoptically - confused now! Any thoughts Strat experts?

Over a week to go to 'realtime' for the REALLY tasty charts - detail will change run to run over coming days - with these developing synoptics could easily shift south somewhat, in reality. Keep watching!

Seems to tie in with the last few posts showing charts for next weekend (1st/2nd Dec)

"Dont wholly rule out snow Sat night with nocturnal cooling on N/NW flank of low" Quote from Ian Fergie on south west regional thread 10 mins ago, just before going on air on BBC West!

Also mentioned a small possibility for Sat night on N/NW flank of the low

I mentioned that on the Mod Disc thread earlier today and was informed that that scenario was a likely no-no. Temps too high - interesting from Ian there.

That's one big tease! Great for us West folks that we have a top guy like Ian posting here. Having seen the model runs the last 48 hours seems to be getting exciting for end next week.......maybe.

As forecasted and expected for a couple of days now. Next week and beyond could well be a different story though

Just a hunch - nothing more as i havent got skills to produce a LRF - but just wondering whether this Dec could be similar to '81?

Brave call BFTP, for December anyway......maybe. I'm just wondering if the cold forecast for first few days could easily hang around for a couple of weeks or even end up with reload after reload of cold. What do i know but it just seems we're in new phase of colder winters started in 2009 (bit like what we saw 78-87). I know last year wasnt cold but generally in a colder cycle. Fair play though for a LRF.

I asked exactly that in the model disc thread earlier - not likely according to Nick F......u never know though.

Interesting that, esp as Roger is forecasting the opposite. I think he is plumping for late Jan/Feb as the coldest here in the UK. Will be interesting to see GP's full forecast soon - he seems to be hinting at a cold winter with a decent start by next week. Certainly not easy these LRFs...for anyone, whether pro or not. Hats off to those that produce them.

Wondering whether that feature could spring a 'surprise' on its northern/western flank as it wraps around and winds veer East/NE - a bit like the other weekend in SW england/west country? Could it pull in some colder air? Just speculating

Surprised there's no Netweather flash warning for this developing situation tonite, esp in light of Ian Fergie's posts - they have a distinct air of concern about them esp for south west and west country