Bristawl Si

Looks to me like it's breaking up or am i being a bit simple? I'm not confident to be honest of much and i reckon it's going to be that cr#ppy wet stuff that turns to slush at a hint of a rise in temps! Expecting it to turn to rain by daylight. Someone earlier referred to bob crapton's forecast on HTV West at 6.27pm this eve. HTV's forecasts are notoriously inaccurate IMO. It just ain't cold enough for me. Angwin now on BBC Points West said he's not certain - 2 to 5cms in the main, but more than 20cm on cotswolds. However, by about 2.00am tom turning to rain, sleet, then snow again, but by 8.00am only snow for Cotswolds and parts of Wales. Last night he was more definite about snow. Definite downgrade for most of the region. The trend over last 24 hours definitely 'not good' IMO. EDIT: News 24 the same as Points West. Not surprising as both BBC. If that cold air can dig in maybe, just maybe! Wales looks good except for coastal south. cotswolds - not sure

That snow will NOT last BB. The whole system has too much energy behind it and will push north-north west fairly quickly. However, possible back edge snow as it pushes south again on Fri morn, but that is subject to change. To be honest the trend for a downgrade for us started yesterday afternoon.

Just watched news 24 weather update at 16:57. Looks like a 'NO' event for the south west or at best a temporary snow event. By 8 tom morn only s.e wales, mid-wales and midlands in snow belt. Even Cotswolds looks marginal to me now. I fear a big 'larry letdown'!! 24 hours ago it looked like a mega-snow event for the south west, BTL and south midlands

From Glacier Point in the Model Discussion thread just now: One final twist ? The DWD 12z has just trended back south a little for tomorrow: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gmee_carte...h=18&mode=1 Still not enough for those south and east of Bristol on the first ocludeded front but backdoor is a possibility on Friday.

Well back at my desk after a 3-hour mtg and i'm none the wiser about tonite and tom morn! From what WIB posted earlier it looks like it's veering towards Ireland. This morning it was projected to drive thru' the midlands to the north taking the snow with it. Maybe it'll take a mid-ground direction and end up slap back on top of BTL and decise to stay there for a day! I suppose predicting the direction of a system like this is similar to when a hurricane makes landfall in the caribbean! I suppose Midlands north still looks best, but who knows? What's the view from that radar, Dogs?

Dogs...keep posting the radar shots thru' the day on this thread if you don't mind. Then i can keep the troops uptodate in work

3 inches of snow just to east of BTL last night, early hours. Chippenham, Bath etc got 'hit' in early hours. (one of our bosses just arrived) Seems like East side of BTL just missed it! Must have been that snow over salisbury plain that came up!

Not convinced. I think the milder air is going to catch up pretty quick thru' the night. Mixture of rain, sleet and snow me thinks! Just looked at the meto radar and that precipitation is already showing up in south west. Ahead of schedule? Any thoughts? The temps were always predicted to be marginal. BTL's best situs like this, in winters past, have been where day temps have been at freezing point from a couple of days of biting easterlies and whereas it hasn't been exactly mild the last few days, it has not been a 'classic old school' event, as i've just described. Edit: Fax chart at 36 hrs shows quite clearly 528 dam line thru' mid-Wales. Sorry don't know how to attach from NW chart viewer!! (plus i'm in work so can't post all day )

Hello! of course you're welcome. This regional thread has been much friendlier over the last couple of nites than the model output thread

That sounds dodgy! He was reasonable bullish at 6.55pm tonite! Is he thinking a 'no' event rather than a snow event? Plus, just announced on HTV West that motorway between membury and swindon west is closed due to snow. just looked on radar and no far from east side of BTL, but not sure whether it's heading NW or due north

Some reassuring comments in last few mins in Model Output discussion thread from Nick F and Nick sussex. I think we're now in a 'wait and see' 24/36 hours!!

I suspect even 'F' doesn't know at the mo! :lol: :o Let's hope the 18z has been 'on the sauce' tonight!

However, 18z GFS says "No!!" - just viewed NW precipitation charts says sleet at best for BTL area.....are these charts normally accurate?

Nick F has updated his blog in last few mins. He predicts snow for 24-36 hrs thursday into Fri for some areas....his boundary between snow and rain is in a line from The Wash down to weymouth. Snow to the N-W of that. If that comes off BTL area is right in the firing line!! :o

The next few days look an absolute nightmare for forecasters! Reminds me of winters of yesteryear. These synoptics really are a 'developing situation'; one just never knows what's going to hit one's area! Things will chop and change re snow events IMO. Nowcasting comes into play. And that's when a forum like NW is the best place to be!!

Richard Angwin, just now on BBC Points West, said a chance of heavy snow for Bristol area Wednesday night/thursday early hours, as a front pushes up from south west, but wasn't totally confident this will happen. BBC news24 just now predicted same

Light Snow showers on and off for last hour here in North Bristol, but v.wet snow. Not worth having to be honest! Thursday/Friday event too close to call IMO. Wait and see how things firm up over the next day or so

Yeah, just watched it in our work reception area. Looks v.interesting but exact locations re heavy snow will probably not be known until a few hours before the event. But going from that BTL will be hit massively!! EDIT: Thomas 'whatshisname' on news24 was more bullish than the official meto warning that's been issued in the last hour for thursday. Who will be right?

Not convinced it will make BTL; i reckon it's just going to swirl around N.Devon and s.somerset for the morning, picking up moisture of the atlantic and b.channel

Sleety now in north btl. Definite slight rise in temps

Could pep up again!

Just popped into 'snow reports' and i see Yatton has been having heavy snow. Maybe it's coming back up here.

As we're all snow watching tonite, just popped into the GFS 18z output and it's showing heavy snow for west country, thru' BTL, into Gloucs for early hours of thursday

Hi guys, i'm back. Still same here. Reports from midlands that temps are rising slightly; some milder pockets mixed in. Not sure if that snow in somerset is going to get here.

Might be good for south BTL, but maybe not for north BTL. I think it's a case of 'wait and see' now; just got a hunch that tonight is not yet finished in terms of snow......he says, hopefully!! Rob McElwee, BBC News24, just hinting at slightly warmer air getting into the 'mix' at the mo....could be explaining the heavier snow down in somerset.