Bristawl Si

Having just viewed the 18Z upto T174, i see cold, but not really cold. Granted, colder than the last few weeks, but daytime temps of 4/5 celsius in the south will only give us damp, murky conditions i think.

So what's the 'experts' view on the 18Z? Up to T+174 - to me it says cold, but dry. The real deep cold is struggling to find its way to the UK.

Oh well! Ditch that chart put up earlier by snowyowl!

Yeah, that chart is a peach! Anyone know if the JMA model is a decent performer or is it a laggard compared to other models?

Ditto! I don't pretend to understand all the aspects of GP's posts but the underlying message seems to be pretty good for cold and snow lovers. Still a long way off though from my reading of tonight's models, as to the 'real deal' a few days into any cold spell. I for one would not like a stale HP centred over the UK, with frost and fog and little else. So the mention by GP of lows possibly approaching from the south west and then bumping into v.cold air by then, sends shivers down my spine

Assuming the omega block happens early next week and we are in an easterly or n.e. flow, what i look for Mullender, in respect of our area, is a gradual evolvement over time into more of a south easterly, but the air is still from a very cold source. In the cold, snowy winters that occurred during the period of 78-87, we did quite well out of a v.cold south easterly. And don't forget if pressure does fall to our south we did very well out of these situs back then. The whole weather situ currently forecasted for next week will develop and who knows what we'll have come Friday 18th - a subtle reminder to all that's still a long way off and when the models are predicting the most 'interesting' weather

Absolutely TEITS. The winters between 78 and 87 brought some amazing blizzards to our part of the UK. (Also many occasions before i was born the South West had some classic blizzards brought about by our old friend, the Channel Low. Would be great to see some of those again! Will make last February's snow seem like the starter!

This is just one run; things will evolve over the next few days. But how? We'll either end up with a boring high that settles things down, cold days and nights, fog and frost, but what follows is a return to the atlantic eventually or the high will dig in, gradually pulling in colder and colder air, with pressure falling to our south and setting up dream synoptics. Here's hoping It's good model watching this week that's for sure. It's only a week or so ago that there was a massive air of despondency on here, but what's developed over the last couple of days just shows how quickly things can change (well, hopefully there will be change! )

IMO the important thing to remember is not each run individually, but the trend of many runs. If we look back 5/6 days were the very cold temps to the east and north east even showing for mid-Dec on the models? The trend over the last 2/3 days model runs shows very cold temps to our east and on some occasions encroaching on our shores. It's trends what matters, not this run or that run. I think the models are definitely hinting at a major change in our weather leading up to Christmas. Exactly when it'll arrive we know not yet. If i had to put a date on it, i'd say around 17th/18th December.

Hang on! I'll just check my crystal ball. Um, it's 50/50

Re the title of this thread - is there one?

Reminder folks! It's only December 3rd

I think we need to remind ourselves that this is the 'default' position for Europe and Scandinavia thru' winter. It's normal weather for Scandinavia and the mild stuff is not untypical for the UK and N.W. europe. Some years the cold progresses west to the UK, some years it doesn't. But almost every winter it is in Scandinavia. Sorry for the 'simple' post, but that's my limit.

Wow! That's my bday and my mum always says that if it's cold and snowy on my birthday it'll be a cold, snowy winter And she should know she's been on this earth 85 years!

It does keep resurfacing every other day or so, which may mean it will eventually happen over the next week or so. I'm sure the models are onto something. I suppose we just have to be patient

I've commented on a couple of occasions in the last week that i thought this was the wettest November in years here in Bristol, and it's good to know my memory is not playing tricks Nov 2009 has been Bristol's wettest November since 1940 according to our local weather guys this evening.

Well, it's been here most of the day and really intensifed at about 4.30, right up until now. A stinker of a weekend weatherwise. Has to be our worst Nov in years for rain. Hopefully Mr. Angwin will give the rain stats out for Nov later this week.

Rain and wind battering the back of our house, so coming in from E-NE. Can't help thinking that if this was 3 weeks later or so we'd be in the middle of a major blizzard! Can't remember which thread Mr.Data was posting the figures, but he tends to update them every couple of days.

Raining again, in Nth BTL. I'm sure we're in for one of our wettest Novembers since records began. It'll be interesting to see what the total is when, i guess they'll be reported, later in the week by our local weatherman. I noticed on another thread that Mr.Data's rainfall list for Novembers is getting shorter as Nov 2009 moves 'up the table'.

Absolutely chucking it down here in North BTL.......again! Windy as well. This must be the 5th evening in a row that it's been like this at this time of evening. Has to be wettest, stormiest November in an absolute age! Many many years.

Thanks Stewart. I remember 70s winters very well. In BTL mainly mild, wet, quite stormy....bit like the last couple of weeks. Late 70s change to colder winter i think, esp. 78/79, but if i remember right...78/79 was a mild start and then it all changed after Xmas and after the Great Blizzard of New Years Eve, we had a number of significant snowfalls in January. Maybe, just maybe. Although through most of the 70s one thing that stands out for me (in some of those years anyway) was systems crashing thru' the middle of Britain and the south was normally on the wrong side of these; BTL ended up with rain, whilst Midlands northwards got heavy snow at times (i don't think my memory is playing tricks). So looks like we'll end up with a 'normal, average' winter, but not quite as mild or boring as most winters in Ian's 'christmas pudding'. Sorry, couldn't resist.

Here goes: the first half of December will continue stormy, as per November, but gradually temps will fall to about 7 to 8 celsius over most of the UK, and a little colder in the north. Mid-december will see a respite from the stormy conditions to a settled period with frost and fog; daytime temps of around 5-6c. The days leading upto Xmas will see another stormy period, but just after Xmas the jetstream will start to shift south and by New Year's day there's a threat of heavy snow a la 78/79. January will see intermittent bouts of cold, snowy weather with less cold, showery breaks in between. By February we will back to more settled conditions, with average temps; towards the end of Feb colder, snowy conditions will appear, before March becomes mild and wet for a time. Cold, snowy weather will effectively be over by March. Enjoy!

10 year old jumpers! You need to get out and buy some new clobber! Mild, stormy November is not that unusual, is it? Winter's yet to come. Mind you i'm also old enough to have lived thru' winters of endless mild dross and i'm not just talking about the 90s and the last 8 years (last year an exception to some extent). I remember the 70s (71-77 i think) and we had hardly any cold and snow for about 7/8 years i think here in BTL. Maybe the 78-87 winters were just a 'classic' snowy period in the great scheme of things (not everyone of those years i know). This winter coming - who knows?!

TEITS, if you're 'throwing in the towel' at such an early stage of late autumn/early winter, things must be really bad!!

Hmm, interesting, bb. Any 'evidence' that makes you so sure? After all it's only November 18th Plenty of time for change. Still in late Autumn by my own 'personal' calendar; winter is yet to come. Twists and turns to come i feel. Oh, and i've no 'evidence' either, but long way to go yet.