Bristawl Si

Best years for that though Dogs were many many years ago, like 79, 81, etc. And the difference then was that we had below freezing temps before, during and after snowfall (Not like last Feb, for example). I was hoping this cold spell was going to deliver colder temps to be fair, to give us a better chance if LPs approach from the SW.

i think it's sleety here in Stoke Gifford. I just looked at the metoffice radar and there's a hell of a lot of precipitation about to hit our area. I should've bought the netweather radar subscription the other week.

Brilliant set of pics. We used to visit Torrevieja, alicante twice a year for many years to visit my wife's mum when she was alive. I think they had snow one year in early Feb. I presume that part of Alicante hasn't been affected. Med sea still too warm i guess.

Last February we were on the 'right' side of marginal. At the mo, we're in that typical weather 'area' that receives the real cra#py stuff - cold, damp, but not cold enough for snow. The thing is people like me were really hoping we'd get a classic late70s/early 80s situ, with a dry few days and the colder air getting entrenched, temps at freezing during the day and then the snow coming a few days down the line. That was what some of the models a week ago were predicting for now and the coming weekend. That would've been like Dec 81. The current set up is nothing like Dec 81, as some people were predicting a few days ago.

Last February we were on the 'right' side of marginal. At the mo, we're in that typical weather 'area' that receives the real cra#py stuff - cold, damp, but not cold enough for snow. The thing is people like me were really hoping we'd get a classic late70s/early 80s situ, with a dry few days and the colder air getting entrenched, temps at freezing during the day and then the snow coming a few days down the line. That was what some of the models a week ago were predicting for now and the coming weekend. That would've been like Dec 81. The current set up is nothing like Dec 81, as some people were predicting a few days ago.

Interesting reading posts that keep mentioning the word "breakdown". Here in BTL and the West there is no cold, snowy weather to be 'broken down'! In terms of detail the models seem to be flipping around alot; i suppose that's typical of this kind of winter setup.

Totally agree with this post. A few days ago the models were predicting much better snow, cold prospects for whole swathes of the UK (granted the best scenarios were North and East), but the bitter cold will not reach west based on these runs. And snow prospects here look v.marginal indeed. Some people werre comparing to Dec 81 - not a chance, nowhere near. I think there has been a gradual downgrade for quite a few runs now (bar the 18z last night). Even tomorrow's predicted snow for the east is nowhere near as severe as predicted yesterday. Yes, temps are cold, but not that cold IMO.

Dogs, i just watched that forecast on News 24. IMO this supposed cold spell is a massive larry letdown at the mo. It's just damp and cold here. That forecast was showing basically zilch all for us. The trends in the last few model runs have definitely downgraded our chances in the West. Totally different from a few days ago. I mean even today was progged as only around freezing, in the runs a few days ago. People on the forum who,a few days ago, were comparing to Dec 81 are massively wide of the mark. Frustrated.

Yes, those polar lows coming right down the west/central part of UK now on this run. Hopefully we'll get a direct hit Sunday and Monday. It's only mid-December and this winter model rollercoaster is exhausting me already! What if it's like this on the cold and snow front for the next 2 months?! It'll make that week last February feel like positively benign! I'll be absolutely knackered by the Spring!

Monday looks interesting for us on the latest run. Maybe, just maybe

Not convinced for us in the West though. Thursday looks best chance of something coming our way, unless you're interpreting better than me! Which is highly likely

Welcome Aspire! Add your location under your name, etc. Fair post IMO. I think you may be right. A few days ago it was really looking like a bitterly cold spell for us in the West, with decent snow potential (not as much as East and North, but fairly decent). Now - well i'm not so sure. I must admit i'm prepared for a bit of a letdown - hope i'm wrong, because i started 'bigging it up' a couple of days ago here at home and if it doesn't materialise for us in BTL and the west i'm going to look a right chump!

Actually WC the models a couple of days ago were suggesting some snow action for us on Friday and sat night/sun morn was looking particularly interesting. Still, i suppose the weather will do what it wants. Fingers crossed for more changes in tomorrow's models; maybe we'll get hit early next week by an approaching LP system from the south west which stalls as it hits BTL and produces hours of snow, just like some of the blizzard events during the winters 78 - 87.

Angwin says cold and rain tomorrow, pm and evening. Two days ago the temps were showing freezing for the day, so any precip was to be snow. His 5 day forecast shows cold, but hardly any snow. Absolute pants! What happened to those polar lows bringing heavy snow on Sat nite/Sun morn?? Never trust a weather model more than 72 hours out. Bring back the atlantic!

Just viewed that as well. Looks a larry letdown for us M. My occasional posts this last week have been urging patience - well, i'm beginning to see a trend to a downgrade for us in the West. I know the East has always been favoured but for a couple of days over the weekend the models were predicting polar lows to head south right thru' the UK and i'm sure we'd have gone some decent snowfall from those. In fact the snow charts for Sat night/sunday morning did look particularly interesting over last couple of days' runs, but now not so sure. By the way, as you can see i'm in north bristol and it's only cold rain at the mo.

Just watched BBC News24 weather presented by Darren Bett. Chance of light snow tomorrow night (rain at first), but really cold daytime weather not forecast to reach us until Friday (1 or 2 above freezing in day) - did hint at snow probs for UK by the weekend

Thatchers, Guinness, Horse racing, snow......oops, forgot the wife!

Well, that was a 'next to nothing in terms of snow' forecast for us in BTL and the West from Mr Angwin just now!

Can i assume from your last sentence GP, that a possible 'battleground' LP approaching from the south west is a distinct possiblity on Xmas Day?

The charts for next weekend are similar to some of the last few years, but with one exception - it looks like the UK is going to be the beneficiary of a 'direct hit' rather than the severe cold plunge diving thru' Scandinavia and eventually into s.e. europe, as we've seen in the past. The one big 'if' is that they are still more than 5 days away and we've seen a number of changes in the detail in the last few days' model runs. A note of caution to all: subtle changes will happen over the next few runs.

The downbeat posts of some on here in the last 24 hours seem well misplaced on the evidence of tonight's 18Z. Looking at Saturday and Sunday's forecast temps and possible snow this seems one hell of an upgrade to me. I think this cold spell will dig in. One of those that extends much longer than most would expect. That northerly seems extreme to me - maybe too extreme. One hell of a week+ coming up i feel.

Interesting model runs this morning, after yesterday evening's 'frustrations' for some. Has anyone else noticed how the models seem to predict scenarios a week+ before the actual date, then backtrack, but as we get nearer that day (let's say this Thursday coming, as an example) the models 'go back' to what they were predicting originally for that date? Get that? No, i didn't think so. OK, here's another stab at it - Last Wednesday 9th the models were predicting a real easterly blast, fair bit of snow for Friday 18th, Saturday 19th, but then over last couple of days backtracked slightly - now they seem to get nearer to what they were originally forecasting the closer we get to those days.

I have very little knowledge compared to some of the main 'players' on here, but i have seen many cold and eventually snowy situations develop in years gone by. They normally take a while to develop/evolve and by now i would have expected most posters to realise that the models chop and change until much nearer the timeframe. Sometimes i wish the GFS wasn't 4 times/day! I think on numerous occasions some of the more experienced contributors have commented that easterlies are some of the most difficult to predict too far ahead. Just be patient all. It can be frustrating sometimes, but we're only viewing computer models after all. I'm a trends person and nothing has really changed that much in the last few days, except in the detail. It will be cold and then maybe v.cold by next weekend, but as for snow, well, the best advice i can give is just wait and see. I enjoy reading the posts from Nick Sussex, Steve Murr, TEITS and GP to name but a few. What i don't want to see is constant sniping and one liners that add nothing, otherwise it will just become like that forum that used to be on the BBC a few years ago.

Not if the HP block to the north/north east is strong enough Mullender. The lows will get so far north, say Bristol, and then slope back off south/south east and we'll be in snow heaven! Just like the winters between 78 and 87. Although i do remember a great blizzard on a Sunday lunchtime/early afternoon 1st weekend in December 1981 (someone on here will know the date). We got hit by an amazing blizzard that dumped about 8 inches on BTL in the space of 4 hours - low pressure system approached from the south west - but it moved thru' by 6 in the eve and the snow turned to rain. By 10 o'clock that eve the roads were awash with water - 8 inches of snow turned to rivers in the space of a couple of hours!