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Ice Day

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Everything posted by Ice Day

  1. Ice Day
    GFS and UKMO very similar at 144
  2. Ice Day
    A smidge better than the GEFS, but that's not saying much What's that saying.... 'it's always darkest before dawn'!
  3. Ice Day
    Well, a quite shocking set of overnight runs. At times of desperation, I migrate to the ensembles in the hope of salvation there, unfortunately, this morning to no avail. In fact, between 129-288hrs, my location never has more than 2 of the 32 ensembles showing 850's of below -5. Thin gruel by any standard. I did expect better having seen the GEPS last night, hopefully the extended set from the 0z will provide some cheer.
  4. Ice Day
    I've just run through all 51 at 300hrs..... it's an absolutely remarkable set!
  5. Ice Day
    The ECM mean for day 10 is as strong a signal as you'd wish to see at that range. How it develops thereafter will keep us on our toes, but it won't be a quick route to cold (when is it ever in the UK!).
  6. Ice Day
    UKMO at 168 giving hints about a Scandi pressure rise at 168 as well ECM showed something similar at day 9 this morning The GEM finished like this at 240 How this affects the UK on the ground is up for question, but the pathway forward is at least a little clearer now.
  7. Ice Day
    GEM is the latest model to show a forming Scandi high at day 9, following something similar on the 6z GFS
  8. Ice Day
    I'd agree with that. You also have to factor in that due to recent conditions, the ground is much warmer than would be the norm for early Feb, making it more difficult for falling snow to settle. Keep your expectations low away from high ground, certainly around the midlands.
  9. Ice Day
    Well the GFS is trying its hardest for us at day 11 I suspect deep FI will be very good, but it's deep FI. Certainly, though, it's picking up a pattern change towards the end of next week.
  10. Ice Day
    Well, it's a messy picture on the ops this morning. It's difficult to see the direction of travel much beyond the end of the week. As @feb1991blizzard said earlier, to underline the uncertainty, there's an almost 12c spread on the GEFS for just 54 hours! One potential chink of light is a significant improvement on the GEFS out to 240 vs the 12z run last night TIme is ticking though, we're not quite in the last chance saloon, but we're certainly on the approach.
  11. Ice Day
    An unexpected turn of events, but I'm not sure this is nailed down yet. The performance of all the models betrays the complexity of what's coming up over the next few days. Out of interest, has anyone got a link to the latest NWP verification stats?
  12. Ice Day
    GEM is sniffing out something at day 9
  13. Ice Day
    Does it? That's not how I'm seeing it Nick. GFS and UK at day 5 are significantly different, and I know which one I prefer
  14. Ice Day
    UKMO at 120 is rather different from the GFS
  15. Ice Day
    Provided it moves east of the UK (which it has), it shouldn't be a problem. The 120 will be telling
  16. Ice Day
    UKMO and GFS at 96
  17. Ice Day
    GFS, UKMO, ECM, GEM at 138/144 It's really a 1 in a 100 shot that the GFS has it right and the others wrong at this range (probably 1 in a 1000). As @nick sussex says above, if it is correct I think we should in future bin all output beyond 72 hours!
  18. Ice Day
    This is the key bit that takes place around 96-120hrs. Looking at the Icon (6z), ECM, UKMO, GEM & GFS at 120hrs The GFS is the only model that has the low to the west of mainland UK. Now maybe the GFS has it right, but it's highly unlikely. Assuming it's wrong, being outperformed by the ICON at relatively short range is not its finest moment! Let's see if the 6z starts it's usual incremental move back towards the others?
  19. Ice Day
    Nope, those in the north of England and Scotland would have thought it was an excellent run. There's a whole host of cold options on the table at the moment, we're just going to have to be patient to see how the pieces fall. But days 8-10 on the GFS are not bad at all. Perhaps setting up something even better down the line.
  20. Ice Day
    The GFS is attempting a weak Easterly at day 8
  21. Ice Day
    So this is the NH profile this morning and at 240 on the ECM - we go from a pretty dominant PV to a far more chaotic picture. T240 on the 6x GFS and GEM also show a disorganised PV. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days as hopefully, this will be a precurser to some HLB.
  22. Ice Day
    Absolutely Nick. I'd be extremely cautious over any run outside 72 hours at the moment. This particular setup is very complex and the systems being delayed by, or coming through 6 hours faster than modelled will have significant consequences on the ground.
  23. Ice Day
    That's quite a range of 850's over the UK by next Thursday according to the GFS 6z, 4c on the south coast down to -8 for northern Scotland. And a lot of snow around for those in the sweet spot The track of these lows is far from nailed though, further shifts north or south are 100% certain.
  24. Ice Day
    No wonder our northern members are getting excited... This between 00:00 - 09:00hrs next Thursday. Not great for the south, but I'd love to see some of the northern mob get their dues!
  25. Ice Day
    GEFS mean at days 7 and 8 Not too shoddy, but plenty of water (or hopefully ice) to flower under the bridge yet.
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