Ice Day

Unfortunately, the GFS control is going the same way as the op at day 6 The mean is also indicating a strengthening signal for the same compared to the 0z (although the difference is only slight). That's enough for me now, let's hope the GFS is being useless.

So day 7.5 on the 6z vs the 0z That's quite some inconsistency at that range. The models are clearly struggling with some significant chaos in the background signals, which is a positive I guess!

Yep, this is not going the way we want to see it in the semi-reliable. It's looking a lot like this morning's GEM Thankfully the GEM and GFS lag behind the ECM and UKMO in the verification stats, let's hope the Euro's don't move toward this solution later

Excellent post CC. I think the optimism by some of the more knowledgeable posters this morning is great, but the blocking signal has changed and faded over the last few days. I'm still cautiously optimistic, but my confidence for the south of the UK has dropped a little over the last couple of days. Lots of changes to come, the funny thing is we *could* be on the cusp of a notable UK snowstorm for early next week, but as of yet I certainly won't be counting any chickens. The 12z's tonight will be extremely informative.

Possibly, yes. What I would say is that during times of high volatility and unusual synoptics such as this, the reliable timeframe reduces and is probably now day 4, 5 at the absolute limit. Based on the GFS, UKMO, ECM latest run, that is not a bad place to be. But you can see already differences starting to emerge, which by days 8-9 would potentially be massive. So, in summary, anything beyond day 4-5 should be taken with a truckload of salt (yes, I am sounding like a broken record), and most importantly enjoy the ride.... it's only the weather after all.

At day 8, it's a big old mess. Would be quite cold though. We're well into FI by this stage though

Well, if the ECM is anywhere near correct, it's going to be a bumpy old ride to get there. But what drama lies ahead

A cracking run from the GFS, but I'm with @bluearmy on this. There are so many potential pitfalls with timing and placement, it needs us to throw consecutive double 6's, which is what the GFS has just done. Much prefer the UKMO version, a considerably safer route for my money, but it's very much in the eye of the beholder.

It really is, the 850's tumbling as well

This will probably be a short-term downgrade for maybe a longer-term upgrade at day 8. If the low to our south west behaves, it could really open the floodgates. This is the high-risk, high-reward scenario so often talked about on here. If it goes wrong you end up in mild south westerlies, but if it goes right.......!

The GFS / UKMO at 144 Excellent

GFS / UKMO at 120 Pretty close match there

UKMO at 168 vs GFS 6z at 162 A fairly decent match I'd say

The 6z at day 6 is much cleaner around Greenland, *should* be a good run coming up

Indeed, the radar seems to be suggesting the north sea is really kicking things off over the last few frames.

Just had a light dusting here, snow-grain type. Temps have fallen to 1.2c and skies now clearing from the east. Nice while it lasted though.

Absolutely this. If it doesn't happen in my location, I love to see fellow snow-starved members get their fair share (It's not just the south that's had a rum time of it!!!). Let's hope we all get a healthy dollop (technical term). And while I'm typing this, it's snowing here

Another good set of overnight runs. Within in the 120-144 timeframe, they're pretty much all amazing, thereafter there's a gradual divergence. The UKMO at 168 for me is the best and cleanest solution. The others look a little more precarious to me, especially for the South as they move through days 8-10 with more than a hint of west-based -NAO about them. But I'd say for the north of England and Scotland, these would deliver something pretty notable. That said, at that range, the charts are going to change, perhaps for the worse, hopefully for the better. As a long-term avid NWP watcher, it does not get better than this.

Fantastic 18z run. The Control at 204, however, is pretty poor by comparison with heights hardly making it to Greenland at all The mean is an improvement vs the 12z though Another positive day

Yep, GEM and UKMO at 168 Sensational charts at this range

The UKMO at 168 is very very good.

Are we back to an 'all roads lead to Rome' situation? Lovely looking GFS at 228... but just for fun remember!!!

The GEM at day 9 is just spectacular. Excellent from the 3rd best performing model!

At day 7.5, it looks like the GEM is trying to bring down the mother lode from the north/north east! Will it make it?

Like the look of UKMO at 144, GEM very similar at the same time