Ice Day

An absolute snowmaker this run..... for someone. Scarily, if this evolution is the correct solution, the track won't be sorted until 6-12 hours before, or less

Low in the Atlantic significantly further south at 144 compared to 12z

Just a quick one from me as off out, but the GEM at 180 is looking really good.

Well the Icon looks excellent at day 7/8 The cold digging further south, more of a northeasterly flow. Great start to the 12z's, hopefully a trendsetter?

Oh, definitely we do

The full set of GEFS are out and they're absolutely excellent. Majority cold out to day 11

That's a new one It is starting to look a bit like this morning's GEM at 192, and that's a good thing.

Yes, as you and others have pointed out, the reinforcements into Greenland are really helping here. 168

Well this is a bit different from the GFS. Deep cold heading into Scotland at 150

I think I fall into the @northwestsnow camp this morning of feeling very optimistic. I do understand that we've lost a strong signal beyond days 5-6, but the ECM, GFS and GEM all show some type of snow event around the county. For example, this from the ECM at day 8. Good 'potential' for much of the country Day 9 on the GEM GFS at day 9 I like the direction of travel, and it very much fits in with the met office updates. There's no doubt these types of synoptic bring a 'knife-edge' element to proceedings, but for a bit of model drama, I'd take that all day long. I'm pretty confident that somewhere is going to hit the jackpot next week, unfortunately for me I think it will be north of my location. West/East Midlands north, up to the Scottish Borders looks in the sweet spot at the moment. Best model watching in years if nothing else.

At first glance, the Control is nothing special at 180, but actually is pretty cold and getting colder. I don't think it's correct, but it could go on to deliver something of interest further on?

This place Anyway, onto the models, and it's unlikely the Control is going to provide any succour for the coldies, going the way of the Op at 138 The mean is a pretty good representation at the same time of the control and op The GFS is an absolute dog with a bone on this one. Are we about to witness one of its finest moments or a classic GFS backtrack? As @tight isobar says, given the timescales concerned, we're not going to have to wait long to find out.

Exactly right, as much as we would like to it cannot be discounted as other models have flirted with similar evolutions. I certainly wouldn't be putting any money on the GFS option, especially as it's up against the UKMO & ECM, but knowing our luck! It's a bit of an unholy mess at 186, comparison to ECM at the same time

Totally agree, there's been a bit too much talk about what other members should or shouldn't be posting on here over the last few days. I am a fully paid-up member of the cold rampers club, but there should be tolerance to those who see something different in the models, providing it's backed up by reason, data and/or charts. This site is all the richer for differing opinions. Anyway, onto the models and the Icon was looking a bit dodgy at 120hrs with a bit of a mess around Greenland compared to the 12z Hope to see an improved GFS around the 120-168 mark.

Out to 150 on the GEFS, the Control is churning out another shocker But the mean has improved a little vs the 6z

I'd agree. It's a very disappointing evolution between 144 - 168. Not what I expected at all really.

Interesting consistency from the GEM. The 12z at 216 vs the same time on the 0z I'd like to see this on the ECM later! Outside the reliable but something to keep an eye on.

The GEM is showing a whole new evolution at day 8/9, and I, for one, like it.

The UKMO 850's for 144. Excellent

Well at least the GEM's had the common decency to at least improve vs its earlier output at 150 As for the GFS, well it's managed to get worse. Is it right though? No.

UK at 144

UKMO at 120 - Yes

144 - that'll do for me. If we could get cross-model agreement on this then it's game on!

The Icon at 135 is so much better. An upgrade in the reliable at last!

Really well explained Nick. The Icon at 108 is showing this improvement vs it's 6z run