Ice Day

Windchill at day 10

Ignore the UK for just a moment, and look at the NH in its entirety at day 9. Heights over Alaska and Greenland pushing most of the PV to the Eastern side of the hemisphere. Unusual synoptics and stunning to look at. Looking good for the UK on this run as well.

The oneupmanship and ego on here, which is a WEATHER FORUM is absolutely hilarious. Thus, it's always been the case and I'm sure it will never change. Some posters seem to get no pleasure whatsoever from their hobby, so why bother? Anyway, sorry mods, off-topic. Definite wobbles from the GFS and GEM this morning, but the UKMO is rock solid and ECM produces an upgrade at day 10, along with an excellent mean, which is worth a rerun. Will the 6z settle the nerves, or bring about eye-rolling and gnashing of teeth?

The day 11 control Enough from me today. Until tomorrow ladies and gentlemen.

Control at 216 The mean, whilst not quite as good as earlier, is still solid.

You'll start to know the usual suspects. It's happened every year on here for time immemorial That said, nothing is nailed at all, but it's been another highly encouraging day of model-watching. Even this awful west-based NAO run is still producing very cold temperatures, all the way out to day 15

It's an unusual chart for sure, with the UK about to be hit by a low emanating from Greenland. With all the cold air embedded, that could be fun and games. That said, I suspect this run is somewhat off the rails

Well, it's a day before the much-heralded 15th of January, and it's on the doorstep! Along with a virtual cross-polar flow. There's just no let-up at the moment from the models. Stunning, incredible, outrageous (delete as appropriate)

Oh, look at that from the Control..... on the 15th of January!

Control at 240! Another corking run. The mean is fabulous at the same time

And at 216 it's looking even better! Again, that's a very strong signal for a day 9 mean.

Improving mean at 180 compared to the 6z

How about that for consistency at 258 - 6z vs 12z Absolutely remarkable at this range.

UKMO at 168 Yes please!

GEM and GFS at 228 Oooh, choices, choices!!!

The GEM at 156

UKMO and GFS at 144 Both look great at this point

My word, that is one enormous 'slab' of cold waiting away to our north east on the Icon (apologies if I've gone too technical!)

A very valid point. The real juicy stuff is well outside of the reliable at the moment, so treat these nirvana runs with extreme caution. That said, it's very rare that this type of output is so consistent across the models, so that does give more optimism than usual that we may hit the jackpot later in January. I'm eyeing Sunday/Monday's runs to start firming up on the micro details, but fantastic model watching all the same; which is why I presume we're all here!?

A rival to 2010 by the end. Stunning run.

Compare the 6z 282 vs the 0z The overall picture is very similar. Absolutely outstanding output at the moment, probably the best since 2018.

Dream synoptics incoming at 276. Too far out to take it too seriously, but regardless of the evolution, we seem to end up cold/very cold/frigid.

Yep, epic FI coming up

It's certainly different at 210. It may turn out quite well but I'm not convinced about this run. Classic GFS rogue output or has it latched onto something? I suspect any setback will be temporary and we'll get there in the end (see @MattH excellent post above), but let's see where this goes.

Apologies if they've already been posted, but these are the 216 and 240 ECM Means Despite some nervousness, and dare I say overanalysis of the op day 10 this morning, these means are extremely encouraging.