Ice Day

And not to leave our Irish and Welsh members out, Southern Ireland and Wales looks to be hit hard earlier on Sunday evening

Yep, the Arpege has cranked things up a little across the board. Now showing widespread 70mph gusts across Southern England on Sunday night. Then into the small hours there's a very strong swathe of winds into the Western Isles. 95mph may be entirely possible. I'd hope this downgrades a little into the coming runs.

So, Isha is coming ashore tomorrow, and based on the GFS 6z, the strongest winds are going to be starting around 6.00pm in the West, through to the early hours of Monday morning in the East Whilst at this point, the storm isn't exceptional, I would definitely say it's not going to be a bog-standard winter storm. Some areas are likely to experience 50-60mph winds for over 6 hours, which is very unusual. If the storm hits with the intensity advertised by the 6z, there will be damage, trees down and power cuts, possibly extensive. The good news is, being late on a Sunday evening, the roads should be quiet.

I've found it notable that although we've had some interesting synoptics shown on the models over the last few days, there have been almost no ensembles showing deep cold getting to the UK. The 6z does at least show a couple of colder options out in deep FI. Would be nice to see an uptick in these, but cold and dry is very much the form horse at the moment.

Morning all. Looking in the nearer term, the GFS moves Sundays storm a little south and thus not quite as strong. That said, it's still showing 60-70mph gusts widely on Sunday evening, pushing 80mph in some coastal areas Then another nasty storm on Tuesday evening affecting Central / Southern Scotland and Northern England. This one will hit during rush hour so definitely needs to be watched closely

GFS day 10 - 12z vs 18z I'm enjoying the consistency

Given the GFS and GEM charts at day 10, I think we are officially now in the next chase. However, there are almost countless ways this type of evolution can go wrong, so expect some wild swings from both the models and the emotions of the members on here!

GFS and GEM are pretty similar at 210, interesting where this goes as it looks fairly primed to my untrained eyes!

A recurring theme over some runs yesterday and today, is a reinforcement of heights starting around the 27th/28th. The GEM shows a little potential, but far better seen on the GFS Way too far out to treat with anything other than extreme caution, but this was the direction of travel the ECM took on yesterdays 12z.

Yes, the consistency of this showing in the models is notable. The Control at 216 / 228 is showing something similar. The mean, whilst not such a strong signal is on the same page at day 9 Also interesting that this isn't out in deepest darkest FI, the amplification starts around day 8 so we won't have to wait too long to see if the models are overreacting to a signal, or something really is afoot. Tomorrow morning's runs will be instructive in this regard.

There seems to be a second bout of heights around day 10 that will hopefully lead to something juicy down the line.

Crikey, I can understand why you're worried. Yes, keep an eye on here, if it continues to show as currently modelled I'd have thought the Met Office will start issuing alerts, probably starting tomorrow or Thursday. The 6z deepens the low a little to 945mb and takes it a little further north. Brutal for the coast of Ireland and the Western Isles. The track and intensity of this system will continue to wobble over the next few days, but it's definitely something to consider if you're in the most affected areas.

ECM / GEM / GFS are all showing some type of pressure rise over the UK on day 10 Interesting consistency at that range, if nothing else! Before then, however, we have a potentially damaging storm coming in for Sunday According to the GFS, that's 80-90mph winds across a large swathe of the country. These types of extreme windspeed do tend to downgrade, and let's hope they do!

Interestingly, the GEM at the time time doesn't have any storm?

Both the GEM and GFS showing a very nasty storm for the 23rd GFS has the pressure down to 955mb, although of course, it does tend to overdo these things. Extremely strong wind gusts across Northern England and Scotland.

Love a good old FI chase. I'm game

Well, that's a pretty awful bunch of 0z suites. I've scoured the lot looking for chinks of light, but there's pretty much nothing to get excited about beyond day 6. The good news is that we have a very cold and dry week coming up, and those lucky enough to live in the north of Scotland are going to see a lot of snow. But, as the last week has shown, models can pick up a new signal and flip quickly, so let's hope the background drivers pick up on something new and deliver on the late January/February promise they've been hinting at. Other than that, there's going to be some beautiful winter weather around, so get out and enjoy it. Charge your batteries for the next chase (don't pretend you won't be back!!).

Exactly this. This time around the cold is in the reliable and the mild is out in FI. Still, no point pretending the ECM isn't disappointing, but it MAY change!?

Not much change, an excellent set of GEFS out to 192 - my location and Newcastle

Interestingly, the mean at 162 is actually slightly colder than the 6z Edit - @northwestsnowbeat me to it.... again!

The GEM and GFS are worryingly similar at 168 with deep lows coming off the ESB The UK is excellent at 144, but is somewhat alone at day 6. We are now into FI, but the direction of travel is not what we hoped, hopefully, a solid set of ensembles and means may lift the mood!?

Incremental improvements on the GES mean out to 126 vs the 0z. Nothing major, but it's moving towards the UKMO (and Icon?) solution, bit by bit. That's far enough out for me now, the uncertainty kicks in around this point (a bit before actually). Adios until the 12z's Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5008467

Incremental improvements on the GES mean out to 126 vs the 0z. Nothing major, but it's moving towards the UKMO (and Icon?) solution, bit by bit. That's far enough out for me now, the uncertainty kicks in around this point (a bit before actually). Adios until the 12z's

Ice days 4, 5 and 6 for the North.... and many in the South. Frigid run this one. Right, repeat after me, 'get the cold in first....'

Well, the cold is coming in, of that we can be sure. These are the high temps for Monday - Wednesday. For those north of a line between Liverpool and Hull, you may end up not getting above freezing for 5 consecutive days. Regardless of what does or doesn't fall from the sky, that's pretty exceptional for the UK.