Ice Day
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That's a solid set right there. The mean improvement continues out to 204. Well, is this a classic GFS garden path or a rarer ECM fail. We'll know more this evening I suppose.
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The Control is looking great at 186 Again, a good improvement on the mean vs 0z at the same time In fact, if pressed I'd say the mean is excellent.
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The 6z GEFS mean has improved vs the 0z at 144 Not dramatic, but it's arrested the slide at least.
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The 850's at 204 are somewhat 'brisk'
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I suspect the mood is about to lift in here. However, as I said earlier, we're now in the just-for-fun stage, so it's just showing an option that *may* come to fruition. Nice to look at though.
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A quite superb day 7.5 chart
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A very downbeat mood on here this morning. FWIW I thought the GFS and UKMO were good in the reliable, the GEM was excellent and the ECM was at least better than yesterday's. No doubt, the downgrades of the means is a concern, but they can really flip at the drop of a hat, either way! Hopefully, the 12z change the momentum, but remember that FI is around 120 so whatever is shown outside of that, good or bad, is very much just for fun. Eyes down for an improved 6z.
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Cheers Blue
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Hi Lorenzo - could you put a little meat on the bones of what we're looking at here please?
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Yep, it's a pretty horrible run, of that there is no doubt. However, the reliable is around 120hrs, so ALL output, be it good, bad or indifferent, shouldn't be taken too seriously outside of this time. If the EPS trend the same way then we can become a little more concerned.
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Control is looking great at 180 Whilst the mean is good, it's not quite as good as the 6z. Variations on a theme though.
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UKMO 168 - Two words, 'yes please'!!!
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The Gem at day 10 is not quite as cold over the UK as it first looks. To be honest, though, these small details are days away from being nailed, I'm just marveling at the NH profile!
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So it looks like the 12z GFS is around 6-12 hours slower than the 6z. Other than that, it's looking really good at 204 with a renewed push of heights over Greenland. *Should* be good from here on in!?
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Good GFS and UKMO at 144 But enough differences to dictate that we're now into the semi-unreliable.
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Absolutely this. If you're not enjoying these runs, you need to find another hobby. Stunning output at 246, northeasterly incoming now
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So, at lunchtime on the 15th we have a long-fetch northerly with the -8 isotherm well clear of the south coast. Brutal windchill by day 10 nationwide
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GFS Op vs Control at 228 Good to see some consistency coming back into proceedings. The mean for the same time Overall, we're in a good place. But, the models are struggling to get a grip on anything past days 4/5. Expect more ups and downs over the weekend and hopefully we'll have a better view on the middle of Jan by early next week.
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The Control at 216 is showing a similar evolution to the op. That's a big positive.
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Based on the 18z, my location has a cold/very cold 5 days to come. That will do for starters!
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Well, we've had a week punctuated by amazing runs, but this may well turn out to be the gold standard. Oh, and it's the 15th January. Still, for the purpose of balance, we are very much in the 'just for fun' section of the run. FI I'd say is around 120.
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On a day of 'downgrades' and 'wobbles', are we about to finish proceedings with a 'stonker'? Based on the 216, I think so....
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Not a great chart at 216, but we've been thoroughly spoiled for the last few days so we were due a less cold run. As stated earlier, I think 144 is stretching the limits of the output at the moment, so all runs beyond day 6 should be treated with a huge pinch of salt. The 240 has the cold struggling to get in Looking forward to the mean a bit later and where the op sits.
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ECM / GFS / UKMO at 168 It would appear that we're now into FI territory! For my money, ECM is the best at this stage.
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Just got in and viewed the models, and it appears that some of the earlier concerns have been allayed. Very good UKMO and GEM and the Control is much better than it's previous output. The 240 is actually superb! Good mean for the same time as well, although the strength of the signal has diminished a little. A good ECM will have this place buzzing again, but there's a few obstacles to clear yet.
