Ice Day

So, ice days are possible for many for the whole of next week Feeling absolutely Baltic in the north. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007900

The Control following the Op at 144 The Mean is a significant upgrade vs the 12z for the same time That's enough from me. An excellent end of the day. Until tomorrow, when we do it all again!

So, ice days are possible for many for the whole of next week Feeling absolutely Baltic in the north.

It's all about getting the cold in Tim. Come on, you've been here long enough to know that!

No problem from my perspective, from deepest darkest Essex. Love this run, snow chances for a good chunk of the country up to 168. So much better than the 12z, with room and plenty of time for further upgrades.

Absolute scenes at 138 In all seriousness, this is quite some upgrade from the GFS

Pretty much identical GEFS on the 12z vs the 6z, possibly slightly less cold but nothing significant.

The UKMO at 168 is a beaut.

Apologies, I meant the GEM. Have corrected it now..... there's too much going on

It's not often I ignore output past day 9, but with FI so close and the volatility in the models outside of days 5/6, it's really a pointless task for me. The ensembles will be an indicator, but even they won't be much use outside of 192. Let's look at the UKMO / GFS / GEM at 144 We've already entered the unreliable at this point, so thereafter should be noted but not relied on. Looking forward to the short GEFS tonight. If you're not enjoying this, I'd try another hobby. The uncertainty at such close range makes this hugely enjoyable.

Accumulated snowfall on the GEM at 168 has pretty much the whole country in on the act These have to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, of course. However, this is definitely an option on the table! Absolute chaos in the models, and I'm loving every second!

The UK 144 chart is excellent, better the further north you are but we're really all in the game at this point.

First signs of a wedge appearing at 144 on the GFS off the ESB. Could be good this!? (hopefully haven't jinxed it!). And look at the differences at the same point on the 6z. Massive uncertainty, certainly for the GFS

GFS v UKMO at 120 This is the limit of the reliable again. I like the look of UKMO

UKMO 96 looks good

There's more than a hint on the Icon of what the GEM was showing a couple of days ago, before dropping the idea. Possible North Easterly on the cards!? Lovely run

Another improvement in the GEFS out to day 8 (0z / 6z) - this is for my area A fairly significant improvement I'd say. It's going to be pointless looking any further at the moment IMO, but upgrades in the short/medium term is what we want to see. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5006829

Another improvement in the GEFS out to day 8 (0z / 6z) - this is for my area A fairly significant improvement I'd say. It's going to be pointless looking any further at the moment IMO, but upgrades in the short/medium term is what we want to see.

We're getting close to a day 7/8 consensus, ECM and GFS very much on the same page Fine details to be ironed, but we seem to be getting somewhere. As @Captain Shortwave says above, a few tweaks either way and it could be success or failure, but we're in the game still!

This looks better, a stronger ridge of heights mid-Atlantic more akin to the ECM at 156 Much much better

GFS v ECM at 120 - enough differences that we're probably into FI territory now so anything after is now JFF It's going to be feeling baltic come Monday, that is for sure

I think that's called an exercise in futility Interesting overnight runs, excellent UKMO and ECM (accepting it was a cold outlier later on) along with pretty poor GFS and GEM. That said, a rock-solid set of GEFS out to 240, a very cold set overall Steady as she goes, and whatever happens on the 6z, try to keep your knees under control!

Yes, I've also included below Newcastle and Plymouth areas Decent set, even for the south of Devon!

I'd say that's a strong signal for cold out to 192 on the GEFS. Anything further is just not worth worrying about at this point.

So the improved mean continues at 156 vs 12z The Control also shows the low further south against the 12z Looks like the GFS will be a decent set, certainly the short ensembles.