May 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Scorcher]

 damianslaw Depends on how May goes...we're not even a fifth of the way through the month yet. A great May would soon erase memories of the dull March and April for many.

[Scorcher]

 reef Yes the maxima have been just as impressive here as the minima. But as you say more the consistency rather than anything excessively warm.

Cold nights have been few and far between since the beginning of March but so have cold days.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Scorcher on GWV run by @Gavin Pwho has been very good at nailing the spring forecast so far reckons that this may will be a plumey kind of month.    

[Summer Sun]

12.4 to the 4th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho

Looks like above average all the way according to the GEFS 6Z ensemble mean.   

 

Ensemble weather forecast for Birmingham

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

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Ensemble (probability based) weather forecast for Birmingham. Multiple model runs help understand the most likely scenario.

Not sure what that would imply in CET terms though.   

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.2C 4C above normal. Rainfall 3.4mm 5.7% of the monthly average

Another warm start to the month.

Edited May 6 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

12.3 to the 5th

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

CET returns from the 00z EC this morning. A very warm near term outlook with the high returns from the 7th to 12th not that far removed from the ensemble average. The 13th to 17th are cooler then the ensemble mean so scope for some high values here.

I think mid to high 13s looks likely up to the 15th but anything could happen after the 12th really.

EC brings back some Atlantic influence after this date. GFS 06z brings cooler air from the NE while the UKMO at T168 looks really warm. Interesting that both the GFS and UKMO are showing pressure rises over Scandi, it could very easily prolong the warmth that is currently expected to shift on the 12th.

[Roger J Smith]

Note in table on page 3, 2008 was ahead of all other years for running CET values 10-14th and was at 15.2 on 12th. Seem to recall a few wet days when the pattern changed from very warm to near average as cooler second half dragged final value down into low 13s. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is around 20 mm now, and looks set to add about 40 mm over next two weeks, to a total of 60 mm. With a week or so left in the month by then, EWP could end up in 80-100 mm range. CET will probably get into 13 to 14 range and stay close to it towards end of month. 

[Summer8906]

 Roger J Smith Looks like an 11th wet month on the trot if that forecast comes true.

Will June make it 12 consecutive wet months? Hoping we get a break soon...

Edited May 7 by Summer8906

[The PIT]

Can't believe CET went down.

Anyways Sunny Sheffield up to 13.4C +4.0C above normal. Rainfall 5.4mm 9.1% of the monthly average.

[Derecho]

Yesterday's CET hasn't been updated yet but I'm looking at the model output with great interest at the moment because if the Scandi high remains stubborn after next weekend some very high CET returns look likely.

The EC 00z control keeps warmth going up to the 17th and we get some daily CETs in the 18s for a brief time. If that verified, by the 16th we could have a CET of 14.9C.

Cooler air comes in later but the 1833 record is not too far away. Also worth noting P10 is off the scale and keeps the heat going through the entire run...

I think that has to be the most extreme ensemble run I have seen.

 

Edited May 7 by Derecho

[Scorcher]

We missed a great opportunity in 2008 to beat 1833 and certainly to record a 14C+ May.

Seems like there may be another opportunity this year- especially if the latest GFS run is anything to go by.

[LetItSnow!]

 Derecho Wow! A May that warm would send the spring record flying and certainly put us far ahead in the runnings to record a 11C year again. Certainly seems since September 2021 we've entered a new phase entirely, off the scale. Only time you can compare it to is May 2006-April 2007 and even then it lasted only about a year.

Exciting but worrying times. I'll certainly be watching the model output carefully.

[Wade]

Albeit it is cloudier than May 2020 but so far in my area at least, it is definitely very similar to may 2020 in terms of temperature and dryness, dryness especially. 

[Summer Sun]

12.4 to the 6th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

We missed a great opportunity in 2008 to beat 1833 and certainly to record a 14C+ May.

Seems like there may be another opportunity this year- especially if the latest GFS run is anything to go by.

It's likely to happen sooner or later, possibly this year!

[Summerlover2006]

I think it’s a firm bet that we will continue this pattern of consistent warmth for the rest of the month and will end up with one of the warmest on record.

[Roger J Smith]

Please note, I posted info in a new thread in the hurricane forum, about 2024 hurricane seasonal forecast contest on American Weather Forum inviting participation from net-weather and Ireland's equivalent (boards.ie weather forum), as we did last year ... but the forecasts will be collected in that part of Net-weather this time.

[reef]

 Scorcher I can only imagine the comments if we did. We only need a 13.5C May to make it a 10.4C Spring and comfortably the warmest on record. It would also mean 7 of the top 10 Springs in the CET series would have all occurred since 2007 (though May only needs 12.1C for us to achieve that).

[WYorksWeather]

For the shorter range, as I've just posted on the model thread, UKV has amped it up yet again. An absolute max of 27C now showing for Sunday.

If this verified, all the CET stations would record 25-27C. If it clouded over Sunday night as is very possible and minima stayed in the low teens, we could be looking at a 20C mean. Bonkers.

[Scorcher]

 reef Must be a good chance of beating 13.5C looking at the model output tonight. You'd have thought we'll be well above that by the middle of next week.

I always consider the last week or so of May to be one of the most reliable periods of the year as well for warm, settled weather so we would have a chance of a notably high figure.

[WYorksWeather]

 reef How about a 16C May 

I'm only half joking based on some of the output...

[Don]

 WYorksWeather An outside chance but nothing can be ruled out!