May 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[jonboy]

12.6 and 59mm of not needed rain 

[DR(S)NO]

12.7c and 70mm

thank you please 

[seaside 60]

12.9c

72mm

Please

[MattStoke]

14.3'C and 75mm.

[Weather Observer]

11.9c and 60mm please.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11.3C, 80mm

[damianslaw]

Expect another above average month, par for the course. I tend to add at least 1 degree to the 61-90 average nowadays unless there are concerted signals for significant cold and even then such conditions rarely last.

With this in mind I'll go 12.7 degrees. A mild May without anything exceptional temp wise. Suspect it will be very mixed, perhaps more warm cyclonic with warm southerly and easterly influences interspersed with cooler northerly and north westerly influences. Average sunshine, near average rain, perhaps slightly wetter in south compared to average. 

Looking at stats forgot how cold May 2021 was, thank goodness such a month not on the way. 

[SummerShower]

Changing my guess to 12.3, still with 59mm.  Thank you

[feb1991blizzard]

13.4c and 58mm rain please.

 

[mulzy]

12.1C and 66mm

[Don]

Another above average month for both temperature and rainfall.  However, probably a drier month compared to recent.

12.9C and 80mm please.

[TwisterGirl81]

13c with 55mm of rain

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Changing my CET guess again now to 13.1, same as 2022.    

Edited April 30 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Mr Maunder]

12.5c and 68mm for me please.

MM

[Daniel*]

12.8c and 60mm thanks difficult one, seeing potential for something colder mid month which could make a good dent but unsure about extent and longevity. 

[February1978]

A warm 13.1C and a slightly below average 62mm please

[J10]

12.5 and 65mm

[Kentish Man]

11.1C thanks

[Derecho]

Latest projections according to the 12z EC control. Difficult month to call this with the control being one the coolest members of the entire suite after the 9th. CET would still be above average for the mid-month point if that came off.

Some very warm ensemble members mixed in there.... so who knows where this will go. Very warm up to the 7th though, especially with overnight minima.

[Roger J Smith]

Forecasts for May 2024

CET _ EWP __ Forecaster (Order of entry) ____ EWP in order

15.2 _ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo (7) _____________ 100.0 __ B87

14.3 _ 40.0 __ WYorksWeather (18) _________ 100.0__ Methuselah 48.0 

14.3 _ 75.0 __ Matt Stoke (43) ________________ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith

14.2 _ 93.5 __ Roger J Smith (32) ______________89.0 __ summer 18

14.0 _ -- -- ___ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (29) _______85.0 __ stewfox

13.8 _ 65.0 __ Pulpstar (L1-2) _________________ 85.0 __ syed2878

13.7 _ 66.0 __ Let It Snow! (31) ________________ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252

13.6 _ 78.0 __ davehsug (37) __________________ 80.0 __ Don

13.5 _ 32.1 __ Polar Gael (4) ___________________ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather

13.4 _ 53.5 __ Metwatch (38) ___________________78.0 __ davehsug

13.4 _ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (48) ____________76.0 __ dancerwithwings

13.3 _ 21.0 __ Wade (35) ________________________75.0 __ sunny_vale 

13.3 _ 45.0 __ Frigid (39, 15.5) ___________________75.0 __ The PIT

13.2 _ 72.0 __ Reef (30) __________________________75.0 __ Matt Stoke

13.2 _ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland (33) _____________ 73.0 __ virtualsphere

13.1 _ 72.0 __ Stationary Front (34) ______________73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age

13.1 _ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (52, 5.5) ________72.0 __ Reef

13.1 _ 62.0 __ February1978 (55) ________________72.0 __ Stationary Front

13.0 _ 75.0 __ sunny_vale (19) ___________________ 72.0 __ seaside60

13.0 _ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster (27) __

13.0 _ 50.0 __ weatherforducks (28) _____________ 70.0 __ catbrainz 

13.0 _ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81 (51) _________________ 70.0 __ Jeff C

12.9 _ 76.0 __ dancerwithwings (12) _____________ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO

12.9 _ -- -- ___ Mark Bayley (L-1) __________________ 69.0 __ chilly milly

12.9 _ 73.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (36) ______________68.0 __ Mr Maunder

12.9 _ 72.0 __ seaside60 (42) _____________________ 66.0 __ Let It Snow!

12.9 _ 80.0 __ Don (50) ___________________________ 66.0 __ Mulzy

12.8 _ 56.0 __ SteveB (1) __________________________65.1 __ 1994-2023 average

12.8 _ 70.0 __ Consensus _________________________65.0 __ Consensus 

12.8 _ 51.0 __ rwtwm (21) ________________________ 65.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981

12.8 _ 60.0 __ Daniel* (54) ________________________65.0 __ J 10

12.7 _100.0__ Methuselah (5) ____________________ 65.0 __ Pulpstar

12.7 _ 70.0 __ DR(S)NO (41) ______________________ 64.1 __ average all data

12.7 _ --- --- __ damianslaw (46) ___________________ 64.0 __ Emmett Garland

12.6 _ 59.0 __ jonboy (40) ________________________ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average

12.5 _ 57.0 __ snowray (11) ______________________ 62.7 __ 1991-2020 average

12.5 _ 70.0 __ Jeff C (16) __________________________ 62.0 __ February1978

12.5 _ 75.0 __ The PIT (24) ________________________60.0 __ summer8906

12.5 _ 60.0 __ summer8906 (25) __________________60.0 __ Weather Observer

12.5 _ 68.0 __ Mr Maunder (53) ___________________60.0 __ daniel

12.5 _ 65.0 __ J 10 (56) ____________________________ 59.0 __ summer shower

12.4 _ 54.0 __ summer blizzard (10) ______________ 59.0 __ jonboy

12.4 _ -- -- ___ Typhoon John (15) _________________ 58.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard

12.3 _ 59.0 __ summer shower (47,18.5) _________ 57.0 __ snowray

12.2 _ 73.0 __ virtualsphere (17) _________________ 56.0 __ SteveB

12.1 _ 85.0 __ stewfox (20) _______________________ 55.0 __ TwisterGirl81  

12.1 _ 66.0 __ Mulzy (49) _________________________ 54.0 __ summer blizzard

12.0 _ 50.0 __ Leo97t (13) ________________________ 53.5 __ Metwatch

11.9 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average _______________ 53.0 __ topclass weather forecaster

11.9 _ 65.1 __ 1994-2023 average ________________52.8 __ bobd29

11.9 _ 85.0 __ syed2878 (23) _____________________ 51.0 __ rwtwm

11.9 _ -- -- ___ Summer Sun (26) __________________50.0 __ weatherforducks

11.9 _ 60.0 __ Weather Observer (44) ____________ 50.0 __ Leo97t

11.8 _ 70.0 __ catbrainz (3) _______________________ 48.0 __ shillitocettwo

11.8 _ 79.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (9) ______________45.0 __ Frigid

11.7 _ 63.6 __ 1981-2010 average ________________44.0 __ Neil N

11.7 _ 89.0 __ summer 18 (14) ____________________40.0 __ WYorksWeather

11.6 _ 52.8 __ bobd29 (8) _________________________ 32.1 __ Polar Gael 

11.5 _ 44.0 __ Neil N (22) __________________________ 21.0 Wade

11.3 _ 80.0 __ I Remember Atlantic 252 (45)

11.2 _ 64.1 __ average of all data

11.1 _ -- -- ___ Kentish Man (57)

11.0 _ 69.0 __ chilly milly (6) 

10.5 _100.0__ B87 (2)

==========

57 on time CET, 52 EWP (2 CET, 1 EWP late by 1d) _ 59 and 53 total.

 

Edited May 2 by Roger J Smith

[Mark Bayley]

A late 12.9c please 

[Pulpstar]

13.8C and 65 mm please

[Addicks Fan 1981]

14.0 to the 1st 

2.8c above the 61-90 average 

2.3c above the 81-10 average 

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2023

 

DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr _______ Running CET extremes

___ 01 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 ________16.0 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1945 ___ 16.0 1990,2005_ 4.2 1945

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.6 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979 _____ 15.9 1966 ___ 4.1 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.6 __________ 17.6 1990 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877 _____ 16.7 1990 ___ 4.3 1979

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 3.9 1979 _____ 16.4 1990 ___ 4.2 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.6 1867 __ 4.4 1831 _____ 15.9 1990 ___ 4.5  1979

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.0 2018 __ 3.8 1879 _____ 15.2 1990 ___ 5.0  1979 (5.1 1782, 1877)

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.7 2016 __ 3.1 1861 _____ 14.7 1995 ___ 5.2 1782

___ 09 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.1 1910 ___ 14.7 1800 ___ 5.6 1782

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.2 1879  ____ 14.7 2008 ___ 6.0 1782

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.7 2008 __ 4.1 1773  ____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.2 1879

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816  ____ 15.2 2008 ___ 6.6 1782, 1879

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.9 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.1 1855  _____ 15.1 2008 ___ 6.7 1879

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839  _____ 14.9 2008 ___ 6.7 1902

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839  _____ 14.9 1833 ___ 6.8 1902

___ 16 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996  _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 6.9 1902

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.1 1855, 1902

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.0 1952 __ 4.2 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1855, 1902, 1996

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.3 1868 __ 5.3 1872  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902, 1996

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.7 1916 __ 5.8 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.2 1902

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1918 __ 5.7 1894  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.6 1918 __ 5.1 1867  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 7.3 1902

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 5.0 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.6 1902

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867  _____ 15.5 1833 ___ 7.9 1902

___ 25 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.4 __________ 20.9 1953 __ 6.5 1814  _____ 15.6 1833 ___ 8.0 1885

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 ________18.7 1784,2017__4.6 1821_____ 15.5 1833 ___ 8.1 1782, 1885

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984  _____ 15.4 1833 ___ 8.25 1782

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.3 1869  _____ 15.3 1833 ___ 8.5 1782, 1885, 1996

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.3 1869 _____ 15.2 1833 ___ 8.7 1782,1879,1902,1996

___ 30 ___ 13.0 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817, 1902

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802  _____ 15.1 1833 ___ 8.7 1817#

# 8.7 was lowest during daily data period but 1698 finished on 8.5 and 1740 on 8.6, these could have had lower running CET values at various points before 31st as well. 

___________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and cumulative CET values 

date _ mean __ cum ____ date _ mean __ cum ______ date _ mean __ cum ___ date _ mean _ cum

01 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 11 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 21 ___12.6 ___11.3 ____ 31 ___ 13.7 __ 11.9

02 ___10.5 ___10.5 _____ 12 ___11.3 ___ 11.0 _____ 22 ___12.8 ___11.4 ____

03 ___10.4 ___10.5 _____ 13 ___11.4 ___ 11.0 _____ 23 ___13.0 ___11.5 ____

04 ___10.2 ___10.4 _____ 14 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 24 ___13.5 ___11.6 ____

05 ___10.7 ___10.5 _____ 15 ___11.3 ___ 11.1 _____ 25 ___12.8 ___11.6 ____

06 ___11.2 ___10.6 _____ 16 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 26 ___13.0 ___11.6 ____

07 ___11.7 ___10.7 _____ 17 ___11.4 ___ 11.1 _____ 27 ___13.1 ___11.7 ____

08 ___11.5 ___10.8 _____ 18 ___11.7 ___ 11.1 _____ 28 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

09 ___11.3 ___10.9 _____ 19 ___12.2 ___ 11.2 _____ 29 ___13.2 ___11.8 ____

10 ___11.4 ___10.9 _____ 20 ___12.5 ___ 11.2 _____ 30 ___13.5 ___ 11.9 ____

__________________________

Edited May 2 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

14.0 to the 1st 

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average

3.2c above the 81 to 10 average