May 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[kold weather]

Looking like yet *another* wetter than normal month is taking shape, models really entrenching the LP nearby which will no doubt be throwing plenty of troughs/fronts up with it.

 

[Summer Sun]

12.6 to the 7th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C +4.1C above average, Rainfall 5.4mm 9.1% of the monthly average.

[Metwatch]

Second half of this month will decide how warm the CET comes out. It's a matter of how warm this May will be rather than IF it will be warm.

I think the (still slightly questionable) May 1833 record will likely hold but the chance is definitely still there for the 13.6°C value of May 1992 to be beaten and maybe for this month to finish in the 14s. This week will certainly help a lot to bring the CET up. 

Likely turning unsettled next week but there appears to be a trend emerging of that being short lived and high pressure builds back in; more time needed to see what happens regarding that.

If that cyclonic influence fades away quickly, we could scrap the first drier than average month but more likely than not it will be another wet one given already 20mm has been recorded so far for the EWP region.

[damianslaw]

Not clear how the second half of the month will pan out, but the very mild first half will make it difficult to achieve even a near average month. 

 

Edited May 8 by damianslaw

[kold weather]

 Metwatch I'd imagine we will be pretty much knocking at the door of above  average by the 15-16th given quite a thundery looking low after the initial front clears through. Even a modest front would probably be enough for a technical wet month from that point on.

Still could see a slightly delayed May 23 where the ms damage is done at the front end of the month and better 2nd half.

[Derecho]

It's probably fair to say that the low pressure to our west will phase with low pressure to the north rather then dig into the Bay of Biscay. The result of that is a much more cyclonic outlook. Still rather warm but nothing special.

Expect the CET to peak at 14C next weekend and a slow drop from there. The EC 00z control is on the cooler end of the ensembles after the 18th but a pretty unremarkable outlook overall.

We will probably need some heat in the last third of the month to stand the chance of getting a CET in the 14s. 

[snowray]

Pretty impressive for the first half of the month, usually it warms up a fair bit in the last third of May, but not always of course, I usually look out for Scandi highs  that produce the chilly or even cold winds in the east particularly near coastal areas and warm sunny weather in the west in late May and Early June.

Surely we wont get another big drop like in April?

[Summer Sun]

12.8 to the 8th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Derecho to be fair this is more reastic to what will happen than the extreme scenario that was highlighted earlier in the week.   

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.7C +4.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Possibly hitting 24C to 25C by day before the breakdown here comes so probably around mid 14C by Sunday.

As for hitting average last month shows what can happen after a warm first half of the month the cooler weather for once cancelled the first half out.

[Derecho]

 Addicks Fan 1981 Yup, though still some uncertainty to iron out. The EC06z doesn't develop a clear low at all into Monday... contrast that with GFS.

Might still get a warmer CET return on Monday but very likely cooler by Tuesday. The EC 06z is likely slower with developing that low.

Edited May 9 by Derecho

[WYorksWeather]

 Derecho The key after low pressure takes over early next week I think will be how night-time minima hold up. ECM yesterday showed very high SSTs - I do wonder whether some of those night-time minima dropping into the mid to high single figures will actually happen. You'd tend to think that the above average SSTs might inhibit that cooling somewhat, especially if it's unsettled and therefore fairly cloudy.

[snowray]

Some of the GFS runs have showed quite cold night temps at times next week, 5-9c.

[Scorcher]

 snowray Those temps still aren't far off average for overnight temps in May. With low pressure close by there will be plenty of cloud cover for much of the week I imagine.

[Summer Sun]

13.1 to the 9th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.2C +4.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

Getting closer to records, 9th was 

 

21.2 _ 15.6 _ 9.9

(records were)

23.1 _ 17.6 _ 14.2

2016_ 1945 _1945

.. .. .. ..&2016

 

For today, records are

24.4 _ 18.2 _ 13.3

1959 _1959 _2016

 

and for Saturday 11th 

25.2 _ 18.7 _ 12.7

2008 _2008 _2016

 

[Scorcher]

Certainly not cold air in place next week. Where rain is persistent temperatures will be suppressed but if there are drier periods temperatures could still end up above average.

It may be that the CET doesn't take that much of a hit next week.

[WYorksWeather]

 Scorcher Yeah it's going to be hard for it to take too big a hit with mid teens by day and high single figures by night.

Compared to Derecho's figures, it looks like we came in about 0.7C above yesterday, and today's maxes were also about 1C higher than expected. Assuming that holds for minima probably enough to keep bumping the CET up, possibly into low 14s, maybe 14.2C to the 12th May. After that, I'd probably expect a slow but steady drop to around mid 13s by the end of next week, based on current modelling. That would leave things in an interesting place going into the final 10 days.

Overall I think predictions in the 13s are probably best placed, but 12s and 14s can't be ruled out yet.

[Scorcher]

 WYorksWeather All it will take is another warm spell in the last 10 days of the month to take us over 14C I feel. I always feel the last week of May is one of the most reliable for weather of the entire year.

[Summerlover2006]

 Scorcher yeah my birthday is may 27th and every year it just seems like blue skies and warm 

[Scorcher]

 Summerlover2006 Same- mine is the 28th. Often seems to be glorious sunshine.

[WYorksWeather]

 Scorcher Yep, another week like this one would do it easily.

[LetItSnow!]

 Scorcher  Summerlover2006 A funny oddity than the last week of May and first week of September are so reliable yet the main months aren't. Lol