May CET

[osmposm]

........and will make it the warmest May since 2004.

I think that phrase in itself is something of a record....for the daftest "the ---est x since y" comparison I've ever read.....it's only 2006 now!! B)

[Weather-history]

.

Philip has Manley on 12.6C at the moment http://www.climate-uk.com/. Even if it stayed at 12.6C it would be the warmest May since 1999 along with 2001 (12.6C) and in the past 15 years only 2years have been warmer. Some cooling trend B) Despite the moderately cooler (because wetter) finale to the month, this will still be one of the warmest Mays of the last 50 years: .

CET: (May 1-29): 12.4°C (+1.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-29): 111.9mm (195 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-29): 158.6hr ( 84 per cent)

Warmer Mays in the last 50 years at the moment

2001, 1999, 1998, 1992, 1990, 1989, 1970, 1964, 1960, 1959

The CET is actually not going to look that impressive in the end. There is a danger of it falling further still.

If it stays at 12.4C, it will be 1.1C above the average, it could even end up being less than a degree above average.

Edited May 30, 2006 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Dunno what the Net-Weather CET is since it's inaccessable.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well last night 'felt' quite chilly, and the skies are clear this morning. So I suspect quite a cool night last night, possible helping to knock the CET just a little bit lower.

I agree with TWS, the rest of the month doesnt look too impressive for increasing, or possibly even maintaining the CET. I think a drop could be on the cards still, but with only 3 days left/10% of the month, it will be hard to knock it down too far.

[Weather-history]

Well Manley is currently on 13C http://www.climate-uk.com/. I can't see the overall falling to 12.5C. That would take an amazing correction, which doesn't really look on the cards.

I don't know what it is West but you do seem to have a habit of putting the mockers on yourself B)

As I said in reply to your post at the time, it wouldn't take an amazing correction to get the CET down, the second half of the May could be less warm than the first but still above average and the CET could still drop even under those circumstances. That appears to be exactly what has happened

First Half of May: 12.9C

Second half of May (up to 29th): 11.9

Edited May 30, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Morning everyone

these are the current averages for the north east

MAX TEMP......21C

MIN TEMP.......7C

=============

MIN TEMP[MAX...10C]

MIN...................-1C

AVERAGE SO FAR FOR THE NORTH EAST IS 9.25C

AVERAGE FOR THE NORTH EAST SHOULD BE 10.3C

SO FAR WE ARE DOWN BY 0.75C

Also so far this may this year is the 2nd coldest in the last 10 years only 2003 was cooler with average of 9c

1997......10.25c

1998.....9.75c

1999......10.75c

2000......10.25c

2001......10c

2002......11c

2003......9c

2004......11.25c

2005......9.75c

2006......9.25c

like i say average should be 10.30c for may

nigel

Just to add a quick note..SINCE JANUARY THE AVERAGES SO FAR HAVE BEEN ,BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR

Also just noticed since 2004 here in the north east has got colder , we have dropped by 2c in 3 years......IS THIS A COOLING TREND I WONDER????????

SC,

Out of interest what's your baseline for saying this month is colder than average? I only ask because Philip Eden's site (and apologies here, but I suspect his data is going to be fairly robust) has a positive anomaly of 1.5C for the NE.

Microclimatic factors MIGHT come into it, but I would hasard that PE's data are based on several sites so that any highly localised anomalies get smoothed out.

[The PIT]

According Net-weather we're below average. Must have been loads of Snow yesterday then.

Server probs still I guess

Interesting just looke dat the figures for us and we're only just above normal bar the rain.

Edited May 30, 2006 by The PIT

[summer blizzard]

ChrisL: 11.8C

Connor123: 11.8C

Phillip Eden: 11.8C

Sunshine: 11.9C

Great Plum: 11.9C

Nick F: 12C

Cloudburst: 12.1C

Supercell: 12.2C

Kentish Maid: 12.3C

Anti-mild: 12.3C

Foggy: 12.3C

Scorcher: 12.4C

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C

West Is Best: 12.6C

Joneseye: 12.7C

PersianPaladin: 12.8C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 12.8C

Anybody on that list should be pleased with their prediction, everybody else, better luck in June.

[Anti-Mild]

ChrisL: 11.8C

Connor123: 11.8C

Phillip Eden: 11.8C

Sunshine: 11.9C

Great Plum: 11.9C

Nick F: 12C

Cloudburst: 12.1C

Supercell: 12.2C

Kentish Maid: 12.3C

Anti-mild: 12.3C

Foggy: 12.3C

Scorcher: 12.4C

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C

West Is Best: 12.6C

Joneseye: 12.7C

PersianPaladin: 12.8C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 12.8C

Anybody on that list should be pleased with their prediction, everybody else, better luck in June.

Blimey! I didn't realise I was so close and given the forecast for tomorrow I may end up spot on ! My prediction for June is a whopping 15.8c so we'll see how that ends up.

[West is Best]

I don't know what it is West but you do seem to have a habit of putting the mockers on yourself

As I said in reply to your post at the time, it wouldn't take an amazing correction to get the CET down, the second half of the May could be less warm than the first but still above average and the CET could still drop even under those circumstances. That appears to be exactly what has happened

First Half of May: 12.9C

Second half of May (up to 29th): 11.9

Indeed Kevin, though to be fair at the beginning of the month I predicted (or should that be guessed) 12.6C which isn't going to be all that far off.

Remarkable month I think: warmest first half for ages, wettest second half for ages.

[reef]

Another fall in the CET after yesterday, now down to 12.3°C which is exactly a degree above average. Phillip Eden has also updated the half month figures and the second half has actually turned out 0.4°C below average, not to mention 272% of the normal expected rainfall!

Another month of two halves overall I think. The first half has had close to average rainfall and sunshine but was exceptionally warm, whereas the second half has been dull, wet and slightly cooler than average.

[PhilipEden]

Provisionally, the Manley CET comes out at 12.24°C, and my estimate of the Hadley CET at 12.45°C ... quite a large difference. On the other hand, my estimates of Hadley over the last three months have been slightly high. I may not be able to confirm the Manley figure for quite a while ... and the website may not update quite as quickly as usual this month as my time and energy are required elsewhere just now.

Philip

[Weather-history]

I mentioned this before but it has been peculiar that since and including October, every month has been this or that since 1996 or 2001

October 2005: warmest since 2001

November 2005: coolest since 1996

December 2005: coolest since 2001

January 2006: coolest since 2001

February 2006: coolest since 1996

March 2006: coolest since 1996, wettest since 2001

April 2006: coolest since 2001

and now May 2006: warmest since 2001

Edited June 1, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Guest Mike W]

I was just wondering if anyone has correctly predicted 2 or more months in a row for this year so far.

[Optimus Prime]

I was just wondering if anyone has correctly predicted 2 or more months in a row for this year so far.

Can't remember my predicting for November, it was in the 6's I think. I was nearly spot on Predicting 4.4c for December (actual was 4.3c) way off with Januarys at predicting 2.5c (actual was 4.3c) I came quite close to February by predicting 3.1c (actual is 3.7c) nearly spot on with Marches by predicting 5.1c (actual 4.9c) incredibly close for April when I predicted 8.4c (actual is 8.5c)

But I didn't manage 2 in a row I don't think. But 3/5 that came very close isn't too bad IMO.

[Dawlish]

I was just wondering if anyone has correctly predicted 2 or more months in a row for this year so far.

Hi Miike,

For "predicted" I'd substitute the word "guessed".

Paul

[summer blizzard]

Aside from April, i have been within 0.5C of the Hadley CET figure every month this year.

[Methuselah]

Hi Miike,

For "predicted" I'd substitute the word "guessed".

Paul

So would I, Paul...I've already forgotten my guess for June!

[Guest Mike W]

I was just wondering what Optimus Prime and summer blizzard have guessed for June.

[Dawlish]

I was just wondering what Optimus Prime and summer blizzard have guessed for June.

Look on the June CET thread would be my advice!

*>))

Me; 16C and a pretty hot one (June, that is).

[Supercell]

Pretty happy with my guesstimate of 12.2C

Edit - For April I was only 0.1C out too

Edited June 1, 2006 by Supercell

[Thundery wintry showers]

My guess of 12.8C was looking good for a while, but I underestimated the coolness of the last week. Still, being 0.5C out isn't so bad.

So far, my CET prediction for March was a whole 1.6C out, April by 0.4C, and May 0.5C.

[Methuselah]

And I'm not much displeased with my guess of 14.9C, either...

[Bottesford]

I was pleased with my wrong guess of around 11C. Most pleased to be proved wrong when the CET ends up higher than I predict! Well in spring/summer anyway. Hopefully my June prediction will also be too low.

[West is Best]

Hadley have posted up 12.3C for May. That's 1C above the 1971-2000 average so officially in the 'well above' category.

I'm not sure if this is a blip, but they've removed the figure for February. Isn't this the one Philip predicted would be altered? (I'm away from my house so can't check this).

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt