May CET

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the curent GFS run the CET will end up at 11.9c by the 31st. Or 0.5c above average which will place it in the 'Close to average' category and will make it the warmest May since 2004.

Seeing as the first half was to warm, that's pretty remarkable that it may only end up 0.5-1.0c above average.

[reef]

Going by the curent GFS run the CET will end up at 11.9c by the 31st. Or 0.5c above average which will place it in the 'Close to average' category and will make it the warmest May since 2004.

Seeing as the first half was to warm, that's pretty remarkable that it may only end up 0.5-1.0c above average.

Indeed, another drop of 0.1°C yesterday to 12.5°C now. The next few days will be around or slightly above average in the CET zone, but a northerly at the end of the month looks like it could lower the value further.

The most interesting thing is the rainfall though, 98.5mm or 208%!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I still think the CET will end up around 12.5oC. Anything lower could require a significant cold end to May. Certainly a strange month though for varying max and mins.

[kold weather]

Yes indeed Reef, the rainfall aspect of the montyh is extremely intresting, now just 1.5MM away from 100MM, and that should be do-able from tommorow's frontal system even if the worst of the rainfall is located over north.

CET is also going to drop a little more with a couple of quite cold nights for the time of year at the end of the month, though I personally think a CEt above 12C is stil llikely.

[Weather-history]

CET: (May 1-25): 12.4°C (+1.4 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-25): 101.1mm (205 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-25): 142.0hr ( 88 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

The England and Wales rainfall series (1766) has it as 101.2mm

It is the wettest May since 1983 and one of only 24 Mays that have recorded over 100mm in rainfall.

Edited May 26, 2006 by Mr_Data

[reef]

CET: (May 1-25): 12.4°C (+1.4 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-25): 101.1mm (205 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-25): 142.0hr ( 88 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

The England and Wales rainfall series (1766) has it as 101.2mm

It is the wettest May since 1983 and one of only 24 Mays that have recorded over 100mm in rainfall.

Well needed rain in the south-east aswell. The main problem is that this will give many a false sense of security and make the drought problems worse.

Interesting how the CET has dropped yet again aswell, it could still end up less than 1°C Above the 1971-2000 average by the end of the month at this rate, incredible considering how warm it started off. We also have a shot at a cooler second half of the month than the first half.

[kold weather]

I'm pretty sure the second half has been colder then the first Reef. Also good to see that we've breched 100MM now, probably won't see much more rain though as a much drier set-up seems to be in the offing from now on in, could be the last decent sustained rainfall till Autumn I think.

[shuggee]

That's a very brace pronounecement Kold! Although I can see where you're coming from re the jet etc...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So as posted on 17th May a sub 12c CET is feasible? Scoffed at it was but recent events have done some damage and with a cool northerly and lower night minima...anything can happe. Before there any reposts at me gloating....no way as my CET guess was way out...I went 10.9C!!!!! All I will say that people who do get close can and do use forecasting techniques anticipating the general synopsis of the month. Come on sub 12 lets have you

BFTP

[Mr Sleet]

I'm pretty sure the second half has been colder then the first Reef. Also good to see that we've breched 100MM now, probably won't see much more rain though as a much drier set-up seems to be in the offing from now on in, could be the last decent sustained rainfall till Autumn I think.

Not quite sure how you work that one out. Just a hunch I guess.

[WhiteFox]

Not quite sure how you work that one out. Just a hunch I guess.

Evidently going for a very dry summer!

I can't think of many summers where we didn't have at least one week of unsettled weather. Brave call indeed!

[kold weather]

I don't doubt there will be some breif unsettled periods, it would be stupid to say there won't, but I do think this summer will be drier then normal and we'll see more in the way of convective actvity rather then frontal activity.

[Scorcher]

So as posted on 17th May a sub 12c CET is feasible? Scoffed at it was but recent events have done some damage and with a cool northerly and lower night minima...anything can happe. Before there any reposts at me gloating....no way as my CET guess was way out...I went 10.9C!!!!! All I will say that people who do get close can and do use forecasting techniques anticipating the general synopsis of the month. Come on sub 12 lets have you

BFTP

I really doubt it will go below 12c. Today is an average to slightly above average day and temperatures tonight will be above average, so I think we might well see the CET climbing slightly back towards 13C due to high minima.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

these are the current averages for the north east

MAX TEMP......21C

MIN TEMP.......7C

=============

MIN TEMP[MAX...10C]

MIN...................-1C

AVERAGE SO FAR FOR THE NORTH EAST IS 9.25C

AVERAGE FOR THE NORTH EAST SHOULD BE 10.3C

SO FAR WE ARE DOWN BY 0.75C

Also so far this may this year is the 2nd coldest in the last 10 years only 2003 was cooler with average of 9c

1997......10.25c

1998.....9.75c

1999......10.75c

2000......10.25c

2001......10c

2002......11c

2003......9c

2004......11.25c

2005......9.75c

2006......9.25c

like i say average should be 10.30c for may

nigel

Just to add a quick note..SINCE JANUARY THE AVERAGES SO FAR HAVE BEEN ,BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR

Also just noticed since 2004 here in the north east has got colder , we have dropped by 2c in 3 years......IS THIS A COOLING TREND I WONDER????????

Edited May 28, 2006 by stormchaser1

[West is Best]

Stormchaser - strictly speaking this is a CET thread i.e. referring to Manley/Hadley and the occasional NW tracker? Nothing wrong with posting one's own readings, but the benchmark does need to be the tried and trusted Manley/Hadley CET.

Philip has Manley on 12.6C at the moment http://www.climate-uk.com/. Even if it stayed at 12.6C it would be the warmest May since 1999 along with 2001 (12.6C) and in the past 15 years only 2years have been warmer. Some cooling trend Despite the moderately cooler (because wetter) finale to the month, this will still be one of the warmest Mays of the last 50 years: http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycent.../HadCET_act.txt - certainly in the top 20% of warmest Mays.

Edited May 28, 2006 by West is Best

[stormchaser1]

Stormchaser - strictly speaking this is a CET thread i.e. referring to Manley/Hadley and the occasional NW tracker? Nothing wrong with posting one's own readings, but the benchmark does need to be the tried and trusted Manley/Hadley CET.

Philip has Manley on 12.6C at the moment http://www.climate-uk.com/. Even if it stayed at 12.6C it would be the warmest May since 1999 along with 2001 (12.6C) and in the past 15 years only 2years have been warmer. Some cooling trend Despite the moderately cooler (because wetter) finale to the month, this will still be one of the warmest Mays of the last 50 years: http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycent.../HadCET_act.txt - certainly in the top 20% of warmest Mays.

Morning west is best

Ok no problem ..if this is the CET Thread where do i post my averages [as i call them] someone out there must have an interest in what the north east weather is like

Im just getting used to all these threads again and iwas`nt sure where to post this one ,so i thought in here sounds good ,but obviously not

nigel

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Stormchaser - strictly speaking this is a CET thread i.e. referring to Manley/Hadley and the occasional NW tracker? Nothing wrong with posting one's own readings, but the benchmark does need to be the tried and trusted Manley/Hadley CET.

Philip has Manley on 12.6C at the moment http://www.climate-uk.com/. Even if it stayed at 12.6C it would be the warmest May since 1999 along with 2001 (12.6C) and in the past 15 years only 2years have been warmer. Some cooling trend Despite the moderately cooler (because wetter) finale to the month, this will still be one of the warmest Mays of the last 50 years: http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycent.../HadCET_act.txt - certainly in the top 20% of warmest Mays.

West

I expect further drops over next couple of days with cold nights too...it won't stay at 12.6c IMO. Still looking good though for first week of June...as we hoped

BFTP

[West is Best]

Morning west is best

Ok no problem ..if this is the CET Thread where do i post my averages [as i call them] someone out there must have an interest in what the north east weather is like

Im just getting used to all these threads again and iwas`nt sure where to post this one ,so i thought in here sounds good ,but obviously not

nigel

Hi Nigel - I'm no mod and far from it so I'm in no position to offer guidance! However, lots of peeps post their readings in the various day to day threads for that day's weather, together with overall stats for the month.

On the other hand, it's actually fun and good to post one's own comparisons - and to do so alongside the CET is interesting. I personally think all it needs is some phrase to stress that their one's own readings. I only queried because you extrapolated from your series to a sign of a cooling down, when the official CET (if one can extrapolate at all from a few months) wouldn't necessarily support that - at least not yet! Even the NW tracker had to be renamed as such, rather than NW CET, to avoid confusion.

Mind you, what you posted is very interesting: maybe the north-east is having a regional variation which should show up in due course in the breakdowns. I suspect Philip and Hadley may support this because my impression is that you've suffered up there compared to other parts, even Scotland, who have had a well above average month.

West

I expect further drops over next couple of days with cold nights too...it won't stay at 12.6c IMO. Still looking good though for first week of June...as we hoped :lol:

BFTP

Hi Blast - yes I think you may be right on both counts. Some cool nights coming up I think? Looking fabulous for next week ... this is so reminiscent of 1995, but a good 2 weeks earlier.

[Dawlish]

Hi Nigel - I'm no mod and far from it so I'm in no position to offer guidance! However, lots of peeps post their readings in the various day to day threads for that day's weather, together with overall stats for the month.

On the other hand, it's actually fun and good to post one's own comparisons - and to do so alongside the CET is interesting. I personally think all it needs is some phrase to stress that their one's own readings. I only queried because you extrapolated from your series to a sign of a cooling down, when the official CET (if one can extrapolate at all from a few months) wouldn't necessarily support that - at least not yet! Even the NW tracker had to be renamed as such, rather than NW CET, to avoid confusion.

Mind you, what you posted is very interesting: maybe the north-east is having a regional variation which should show up in due course in the breakdowns. I suspect Philip and Hadley may support this because my impression is that you've suffered up there compared to other parts, even Scotland, who have had a well above average month.

Hi Blast - yes I think you may be right on both counts. Some cool nights coming up I think? Looking fabulous for next week ... this is so reminiscent of 1995, but a good 2 weeks earlier.

Hi West (and some others)

I'm about to go off on an iffy here! What's the evidence that past weather patterns have any influence on what will happen from a similar weather pattern in 2006? I can remember articles in "Weather", but I can't quote them (someone chucked all my past copies last time we moved house!) which analysed patterns and came to the conclusion that there was no statistical basis for looking back at weather patterns and useing them to predict seasonal weather.

I could be persuaded, given some decent statistical evidence, but I don't think that a particular pattern, seen in 1995, has any statistical chance greater than a guess as to how this summer will turn out.

The atmosphere is essentially a chaotic system. Small differences can produce unexpected outcomes. You said in your post that this is "2 weeks earlier", so how, in a chaotic system, could you possibly expect an outcome which is the same? (I know you didn';t actually say that you expect that, but the thinking must be there, or you wouldn't have alluded to it).

By the way, the gfs, past 05 June is wildly inconsistent at present! It does not seem to be able to point to a particular pattern. Perhaps a Northlyish, for a while, is the best it can do. I wonder if the warmth which has appeared at the edage of reality (14day+) will hang around?

Edited May 28, 2006 by Dawlish

[stormchaser1]

Hi Nigel - I'm no mod and far from it so I'm in no position to offer guidance! However, lots of peeps post their readings in the various day to day threads for that day's weather, together with overall stats for the month.

On the other hand, it's actually fun and good to post one's own comparisons - and to do so alongside the CET is interesting. I personally think all it needs is some phrase to stress that their one's own readings. I only queried because you extrapolated from your series to a sign of a cooling down, when the official CET (if one can extrapolate at all from a few months) wouldn't necessarily support that - at least not yet! Even the NW tracker had to be renamed as such, rather than NW CET, to avoid confusion.

Mind you, what you posted is very interesting: maybe the north-east is having a regional variation which should show up in due course in the breakdowns. I suspect Philip and Hadley may support this because my impression is that you've suffered up there compared to other parts, even Scotland, who have had a well above average month.

Hi Blast - yes I think you may be right on both counts. Some cool nights coming up I think? Looking fabulous for next week ... this is so reminiscent of 1995, but a good 2 weeks earlier.

Hi west is best

I only meant is the north east cooling down ,,i know all about CETs aand the area they cover and i respect everyone`s hard work in gathering information for the temps ,and i know that alot on here has prob been invovled with the with for years ,which i respect again , anyway think i might just stick to putting my reports on the report page save any more hassle,

thanks again for replying

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think 1995 is used as a parallel just to show what could happen; although of course those who use pattern matching to feel certain something will happen are likely to be disappointed.

There was a lot in common between the synoptics of May 2005 and May 1995, and the first half of June in those two years was also not dissimilar, but then July, especially the second half, was wildly different.

[The PIT]

CET bouncing back up again. Shouldn't change much now as the days are running out. So we can safely say a warm wet month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Actually I think it could well drop a bit- the next few days are set to be exceptionally cool, with maxima of 11-14C and minima of 2-5C. The warmer weather doesn't set in until June.

[kold weather]

While the CEt is quite impressive I'm most impressed by the amount of rainfall that has fallen overthe last 15 days, it really is quite amazing to see us well above average with the SE at 212% of average upto the 25th and while that will reduce a little by the end of the month, its still an impressive total.

As for 1995, yes there are some similar features to it on the surface, though in terms of teleconnections, it may be quite different though I can't say I've stuided the teleconnections of 1995. Maybe something to keep a close eye on, but we are at the time of year where in terms of synoptics, things are usually very similar with the Azores high usually in play somehwere in the atlantic and usually the jet starting to go to our north. IF things stil look like 1995 by the end of June then may be the time to start making wild comprasions, but for now its nothing more then a passing intrest as was 1962 to last winter.

[The PIT]

Actually I think it could well drop a bit- the next few days are set to be exceptionally cool, with maxima of 11-14C and minima of 2-5C. The warmer weather doesn't set in until June.

Depends if the curse of the cloud cover carries over into late Spring/early Summer. If it does the mions won't be that low.