May CET

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As ever the weather is proving very interesting. My CET prediction was 10.9 c which is quite cool! I based this on the fact that we would see a shortlived warm beginning then a pretty cool middle two weeks with very warm last week. Now the warm start was warmer overall and longer than expected. However, this cool period will be pretty cool and I now anticipate that this will carry through to the end of the month. I remember reading that the METO experimental prediction was that May could be a slow as 2c below average.

My timings are out but unfortunately I do see what we got now is the next fortnight more or less accounted for. What the CET will be? I believe sub 12 is very feasible and this weekend will do some damage to the current stats but early next week I reckon a lot of damage will be done [mustn't take runs as gospel as there will be tweaking] but it looks like it is set to be very miserable and generally very cool. I have just come in from the rain and car therm shows 14.5c where I am today, a drop of 1.5c since 11am....miserable.

A post from Carinthian recently for me sums it up perfectly and does look set to be the case late this weekend and on

hI all,

Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles.

C

If you now look at 06z for example....looking good

BFTP

[Weather-history]

Does anyone fancy doing a list of the predictions and the daily average needed to reach this by month-end?

To reach the following values by the months end here's the daily CET mean that is needed

15.1---> 17.5C

14.5---> 16.2C

14.0---> 15.2C

13.5---> 14.1C

13.0---> 13.1C

12.5---> 12.1C

12.0---> 11.0C

11.0---> 9.0C

10.0---> 6.9C

[PersianPaladin]

I feel that mid May will prove to be the first 'real' taste of summer but soon returning to slightly cooler weather towards the end, but the cet will be around 12.1c i think, due to a slightly above average month, but cooler days will out number the warm/hot days. :lol:

Your prediction just may come true Andy. Let's wait and see.

[Scorcher]

As ever the weather is proving very interesting. My CET prediction was 10.9 c which is quite cool! I based this on the fact that we would see a shortlived warm beginning then a pretty cool middle two weeks with very warm last week. Now the warm start was warmer overall and longer than expected. However, this cool period will be pretty cool and I now anticipate that this will carry through to the end of the month. I remember reading that the METO experimental prediction was that May could be a slow as 2c below average.

My timings are out but unfortunately I do see what we got now is the next fortnight more or less accounted for. What the CET will be? I believe sub 12 is very feasible and this weekend will do some damage to the current stats but early next week I reckon a lot of damage will be done [mustn't take runs as gospel as there will be tweaking] but it looks like it is set to be very miserable and generally very cool. I have just come in from the rain and car therm shows 14.5c where I am today, a drop of 1.5c since 11am....miserable.

A post from Carinthian recently for me sums it up perfectly and does look set to be the case late this weekend and on

hI all,

Sorry to keep going on about this, but a developing cold pool over the Greenland ice cap later this weekend is going to produce some very low reading again ( Minus 33C forecast for the Summit). Widely between 5 and 10C below the mid - May average. Cold air to be pushed well south from this source to the west of the Britsh Isles, adding fuel to some classic late Spring downpours over the Britsh Isles.

C

If you now look at 06z for example....looking good

BFTP

I think it would take something really exceptional for the CET to end up below 12 now. It's still above 13C even now, with a slight rise over the past couple of days! The minima look like they will stay high and comfortably above average for the next few days- time is running out for significant damage to be done, particularly when you consider the second half of May is statistically warmer than the first half.

[West is Best]

I think it would take something really exceptional for the CET to end up below 12 now. It's still above 13C even now, with a slight rise over the past couple of days! The minima look like they will stay high and comfortably above average for the next few days- time is running out for significant damage to be done, particularly when you consider the second half of May is statistically warmer than the first half.

Quite right Scorcher!

I'm still going for between 13C and 14C, although at the start of the month I guessed 12.6C. I see no way it will drop as low as some on here are suggesting. It's May not January! And with the second half coming up, notwithstanding the changeable scenario for a week or so I can't see it dropping much if at all from here.

Edited May 17, 2006 by West is Best

[Dave J]

Quite right Scorcher!

I'm still going for between 13C and 14C, although at the start of the month I guessed 12.6C. I see no way it will drop as low as some on here are suggesting. It's May not January! And with the second half coming up, notwithstanding the changeable scenario for a week or so I can't see it dropping much if at all from here.

Hey Richard- did you notice the extreme heat across SE Spain today?

850hPa temps circa. +24,+25C and surface temps up to +40C. Many station temperature records have fallen today for May.

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe I'm not the right Guy to ask, but based on the 12z GFS run, I think the CET value will stall somewhere between 12.8 and 13.1 for about a week now, then resume its slow upward climb around Friday of next week, possibly getting into the 13.5 range as the month ends, thanks to a few warmer days around next weekend.

[Scorcher]

A very mild night last night in the CET zone for the time of year, temperatures dropped no lower than 12C in most areas, with London staying at 13C. Daytime highs have been 17-19C quite widely today, so the temperatures are remaining above average.

[kold weather]

Looks like the remaining of the moth should see the CEt remaining close to the 13c mark, still I'm very happy at my 12.9C punt and think that that will be close to the mark

[reef]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Snowmaiden: 10C 6.5

Optimus Prime: 10.3C 7.1

Terminal Moraine: 10.7C 8.0

Drfeelgood: 10.7C 8.0

Atmosfear: 11.1C 8.9

Bottesford: 11.1C 8.9

Glacier Point: 11.1C 8.9

Shuggee: 11.3C 9.4

Summer Blizzard: 11.4C 9.6

Button-wales: 11.4C 9.6

SteveB: 11.5C 9.8

AtlanticFlamethrower: 11.6C 10.0

Frozen North: 11.7C 10.2

ChrisL: 11.8C 10.5

Connor123: 11.8C 10.5

Phillip Eden: 11.8C 10.5

Sunshine: 11.9C 10.7

Great Plum: 11.9C 10.7

Nick F: 12C 10.9

Cloudburst: 12.1C 11.1

Supercell: 12.2C 11.4

Kentish Maid: 12.3C 11.6

Anti-mild: 12.3C 11.6

Foggy: 12.3C 11.6

Scorcher: 12.4C 11.8

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C 12.0

West Is Best: 12.6C 12.2

Joneseye: 12.7C 12.5

PersianPaladin: 12.8C 12.7

Thundery Wintry Showers: 12.8C 12.7

Evo: 12.9C 12.9

Petter Tattum: 12.9C 12.9

Kold Weather: 12.9C 12.9

Snowprincess: 12.9C 12.9

Stricklands: 13C 13.1

Rollo: 13.1C 13.3

Reef: 13.2C 13.6

Roger J Smith: 13.7C 14.7

Stephen Prudence: 14.3C 16.0

Jon Cox: 15.1C 17.8

[West is Best]

The Manley CET actually rose yesterday to 13C http://www.climate-uk.com/

It's a good illustration of how hard it is to get a downward correction at this time of May. We may see it pop up and down a bit but nothing major. With mostly above average nights the range 12.5C to 13.5C looks fairly likely, though higher still can't be ruled out.

Hey Richard- did you notice the extreme heat across SE Spain today?

850hPa temps circa. +24,+25C and surface temps up to +40C. Many station temperature records have fallen today for May.

Amazing Dave!

Edited May 19, 2006 by West is Best

[Methuselah]

Looks like the remaining of the moth should see the CEt remaining close to the 13c mark, still I'm very happy at my 12.9C punt and think that that will be close to the mark

Same here, kold...

[kold weather]

It loosk to me that over the next 4-5 days max daytime temps may actually end up a little below average at 14-15C thanks the NW intrusion and plenty of cloud and rain from the frontal systems. What all this cloud does mean though is night-time mins should also stay high and I can see night-times mins staying close to double figures at least over the next 2 nights.

13C looks highly likely now!

[Weather-history]

I think the interest now is going to turn away from how warm May this turns out to be into how wet this May could turn out to be.

Well its already the wettest May since 2003 and thats before even before last nights totals have been added in.

E&W Rain: (May 1-19): 50.8mm (135 per cent)

[Optimus Prime]

By the end of the month I think it'll be one of the wettest ever recorded. But a CET looks likely to end up around 12.6c in my opinion, on the official metoffice figure.

[PersianPaladin]

The strength of next week's northerly wind will have a bearing on whether the CET still actually exceeds 13C at the end of the month.

[Weather-history]

CET: (May 1-20): 12.9°C (+2.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-20): 65.0mm (165 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-20): 117.0hr ( 91 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Wetter than average May is now guaranteed

[kold weather]

Wow, thats very wet indeed for May considering we are just 2/3rds of the way through the month and there is much more rainfall to come as well, could well be at 150% by the end of the month, which considering how dry recent months have been, is quite a turn-up!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 1st-10th was certainly very warm, but surprisingly, so was the 11th-20th. It didn't feel as warm because it was unsettled and windy, but with winds being predominantly southerly, nights have been rather warm.

A spell of "average" temperatures from the 21st to 31st would give an outturn of about 12.7-12.8C, so it would have to be above the long-term average to stay "in the 13s", but rather below to come out at less than 12.5.

[West is Best]

CET: (May 1-20): 12.9°C (+2.2 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-20): 65.0mm (165 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-20): 117.0hr ( 91 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Wetter than average May is now guaranteed

And I reckon we've had an inch of rain overnight and this morning in Devon ... that 165% is going to rise still further methinks! Warm and wet will be the final outcome of this month I think.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

I do not think anybody else has posted this...

First half of May 2006 was the warmest (as measured by the CET) since 1945; the period mid-April to mid-May 2006 was the warmest (by the CET) possibly since 1912

[Scorcher]

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

I do not think anybody else has posted this...

First half of May 2006 was the warmest (as measured by the CET) since 1945; the period mid-April to mid-May 2006 was the warmest (by the CET) possibly since 1912

Thanks for that, very interesting. When you think about it, although frost isn't that common in late April and early May, there were very few frosts at all anywhere after the first third of April. Last year was different, as we experienced frost even in May. Although the daytime highs haven't been anything exceptional, night time minima have been consistently above average for some time now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Warmth tends to be noticed when it occurs in the form of exceptional heatwaves such as in years like 1995, 1997 and 2003. Persistent warmth over a period of time tends to produce exceptional anomalies but not be anything like as noticable.

That said, I thought the period 3-12 May was abnormally warm, and at times was above the long-term average for July and August.

As Stratos Ferric has posted before, the main issue seems to be a lack of significantly below average temperatures, rather than anything exceptional on the heat side. For example, the Mays of 1995 and 1997 both began exceptionally hot, but the heat was then followed by an equally exceptional cold snap in both cases, so the CET came out close to the long-term average. Here, we have persistent warmth and then just near-to-slightly-above temperatures, not denting the CET significantly.

[MP-R]

The CET so far this month in south Bristol, or should I say - my location - stands at 16.2C.

From the 1st - 5th: 17.0C

From the 6th - 11th: 17.7C

From the 12th - 16th: 14.8C

From the 17th - 21st: 15.0C

From the 1st - 10th: 17.1C

From the 11th - 21st: 15.4C

Definitely switched round from last year.

[Weather-history]

CET: (1-21st May): 12.8 (+2.0)

Rain: (1-21st May): 74.9mm (180%)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

Could be on for our first 3 digit total rainfall for May since 1983