May CET

[West is Best]

Rather than splitting the month in half, i think it is better to split the month into 3, as the first ten days have produced a CET of 12.5C,

Erm ... I suspect it will be higher than 12.5C by the time Philip programmes in today's figures.

Don't forget the CET should increase fairly rapidly by the averages, so that his adjusted figure of 2.4C above average would lead to a final CET of above 13.5C if continued.

At this stage we're certainly looking at something above 12.5C ... and probably comfortably above 13C. however, I do agree that corrections are very possible, and you cannot easily, nor safely, call a month after only 1/3rd. That having been said I reckon we're looking at a very warm month.

[Optimus Prime]

Well, if;

1st week had an average CET 2.2c above average

2nd week had an average CET 2.4c above average

3rd week had a CET 2.0c above average

4th week had an average CET 1.3c below average

That would overall equal a May CET 1.9c above average. That's presuming we have sustained very warm weeks but a colder end.

If the last week however had a CET 2.0c below average however, it would be sufficient enough to make the month only 1.1c above average.

That cold end scenario is possible and would mean the month would only come out at 12.5c or 1.1c above average, still quite a bit above average but not anything out of the ordinary.

[reef]

Here's the daily CET mean that is needed to reach these values by months end

Snowmaiden: 10C 9.0

Optimus Prime: 10.3C 9.4

Terminal Moraine: 10.7C 10.0

Drfeelgood: 10.7C 10.0

Atmosfear: 11.1C 10.5

Bottesford: 11.1C 10.5

Glacier Point: 11.1C 10.5

Shuggee: 11.3C 10.8

Summer Blizzard: 11.4C 11.0

Button-wales: 11.4C 11.0

SteveB: 11.5C 11.1

AtlanticFlamethrower: 11.6C 11.2

Frozen North: 11.7C 11.4

ChrisL: 11.8C 11.5

Connor123: 11.8C 11.5

Phillip Eden: 11.8C 11.5

Sunshine: 11.9C 11.7

Great Plum: 11.9C 11.7

Nick F: 12C 11.8

Cloudburst: 12.1C 11.9

Supercell: 12.2C 12.1

Kentish Maid: 12.3C 12.2

Anti-mild: 12.3C 12.2

Foggy: 12.3C 12.2

Scorcher: 12.4C 12.4

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C 12.5

West Is Best: 12.6C 12.6

Joneseye: 12.7C 12.8

PersianPaladin: 12.8C 12.9

Thundery Wintry Showers: 12.8C 12.9

Evo: 12.9C 13.1

Petter Tattum: 12.9C 13.1

Kold Weather: 12.9C 13.1

Stricklands: 13C 13.2

Rollo: 13.1C 13.3

Reef: 13.2C 13.5

Roger J Smith: 13.7C 14.2

Stephen Prudence: 14.3C 15.0

Jon Cox: 15.1C 16.2

[West is Best]

I will go for something fairly similar - bit higher perhaps.

12.9C

I've got a feeling you're maybe supposed to decide before or at the beginning of the month?!

Just looking at the figures today and the CET is likely to rise despite a slightly cooler night last night - probably to 12.6C on today's Manley but we await Philip's verdict.

I agree with OP that such things are possible. But I think there's little chance of getting 2.4C below average for the final week of May. By the time we get towards the end of May there's so much less potential for really cold conditions to strike.

Edited May 10, 2006 by West is Best

[Roger J Smith]

Resistance remains futile.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm currently thinking that the likely result of May 2006 will be a CET between 12.5 and 13.5C. So my 12.8C looks quite good, but if anything I'd say a little on the low side. The 13.0 to 13.3 is probably the most likely range.

[West is Best]

Well the Manley CET has leapt to 12.8C today http://www.climate-uk.com/

That's a rise of 0.3C in 24hrs, and we are now 2.6C above average. With more of the same tomorrow and Friday we might be 3C above the adjusted average by the weekend.

It's going to need a really significant synoptic shift to correct this. As we all know, that can happen. But there's just nothing cold, or even cool, really in the CET zone for another week.

[PhilipEden]

Well the Manley CET has leapt to 12.8C today http://www.climate-uk.com/

That's a rise of 0.3C in 24hrs, and we are now 2.6C above average. With more of the same tomorrow and Friday we might be 3C above the adjusted average by the weekend.

It's going to need a really significant synoptic shift to correct this. As we all know, that can happen. But there's just nothing cold, or even cool, really in the CET zone for another week.

Sorry, that was an error ... 12.6 is the correct figure (actually 12.64)

Philip

[West is Best]

Sorry, that was an error ... 12.6 is the correct figure (actually 12.64)

Philip

:unsure: No problem! Had me in major ramp mode for a moment there!

Although not unprecedented (yet) this is a fantastic start to May for those who love warmth.

[Joneseye]

I've got a feeling you're maybe supposed to decide before or at the beginning of the month?! :unsure:

I must have missed where the rules are written for having a punt? Can you point me in that direction.... :blush:

[West is Best]

I must have missed where the rules are written for having a punt? Can you point me in that direction.... :unsure:

Yes, sure, look back to the discussion at the beginning of April CET thread where most of us discussed this. The general feeling was that whilst SB was being a touch fastidious about not allowing punts after the 01st of the month, it wouldn't be fair to go beyond a day or so. http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=29072

Or are you suggesting one can guess the May CET on May 30th ... ?

Edited May 11, 2006 by West is Best

[Joneseye]

Or are you suggesting one can guess the May CET on May 30th ... ?

OK thanks!

I just thought it was a bit of fun and it's not like there are prizes on offer for the winner other than possibly a bit of kudos and an opportunity to gloat?

And no I am not suggesting that guessing on the 30th May for the May CET is ok :unsure:

[Roger J Smith]

My actual prediction is 13.72849012592587238126123870000023125512321251251

but that could be thrown off if a ladybug goes into heat at the wrong moment.

[West is Best]

OK thanks!

I just thought it was a bit of fun and it's not like there are prizes on offer for the winner other than possibly a bit of kudos and an opportunity to gloat?

lol! But anyone who gloats for getting the CET right deserves a slap! It's almost total guesswork. Well, that's an exaggeration, but you know what I mean. It's bad enough trying to get the synoptics right 7 days away, let alone for a whole month! So your attitude is the right one - it's just a bit of fun. I'm more interested in what the CET is doing than the competition.

[Roger J Smith]

It remains true, however, that if the paradigm is to assume that all forecasts are guesses, then there will be no way to recognize non-random predictive ability, since it will be assumed that correct forecasts are lucky guesses. Hence the lack of progress in long range forecasting. Just thought I would mention that one last time before I totally lose interest or go senile.

[Weather-history]

Any bets that the second half of May 2006 will be cooler than the first half?

[West is Best]

Any bets that the second half of May 2006 will be cooler than the first half?

Well it's certainly possible given how warm the opening of this May has been.

I don't know though ... the thermal gradient is so steep this month that it will take something pretty major to achieve that. But it's possible ....

[West is Best]

Mr D (or any other weather buff) ... serious question here, do you have data for warmest starts to May? I'm thinking here of the following:

1st -10th May

1st -15th May

1st - 20th May

The extraordinary 1833 would be very interesting to have a breakdown about! But would also be interesting to know about some of the others. For instance, 1990 cooled down very sharply after about 5th or 6th didn't it?

[summer blizzard]

West Is Best, while i do not have any actual statistics, i suspect that the warmest first half to May had a CET around 12.8C, because the warmest April had a CET of 10.6C and the warmest May had a CET of 15.1C, so if we find the median value, it is 12.8C, which is 1.5C above the monthly average.

[Optimus Prime]

At this stage it does look like May, may well end up one of the warmest ever. I should think 13.5c+ would be a good estimate.

So, perhaps the below average November, December, February and March is all we're going to get?

[kold weather]

It does look above average, but the next 2 weeks do look like moderating out the CET somewhat, and I think anytyhing above 13C isn't that likely in the light of present model outputs.

I still feel there is a good chance of a CET in the top 10 at least of the warmest ever, if not the top 5, but I think 13.5C is over the odds, still happy about my 12.9c, though I think this will be too high.

(It's worth remembering, that just because the first 10 days are warm, that the rest of the month will follow, it just happens that its more likely, but sometimes in very Meridional set-ups, you tend to move from one pattern to another and I think we atre about to move into a slightly less warm phase., though NOT cold)

[Scorcher]

To me it doesn't seem that the CET will be dented too much next week. Temperatures still in the high teens, possibly low 20s, which is still above average for middle of May. I definitely think my CET estimate of 12.4C will be too low, something close to 13 or slightly above looks a good bet now.

Edited May 11, 2006 by Scorcher

[Optimus Prime]

I certainly think a CET over 13.0c at this stage is odds on.

Any hot spell for Spain we get now will be hotter than anything we have experienced so far this May. Potentially since August last year.

The end of May last year was a very good example. Very hot last few days with temperatures around 30c.

1st week of May this year was 2.2c above average

2nd week? probably 2.4c above average

3rd week? Guess around 1.8c above average

4th week? Guess around 3.0c above average

That would mean May this year would end up at 13.8c. Or 2.4c above average (rounded up to the neared ten)

That would be the hottest since 1848 and the 5th hottest ever.

Probbaly won't go that way but if it does the period from January-May would have a combined CET of 7.0c. Or 0.4c above average.

A step closer to another yearly CET above or equal to 10.5?

[kold weather]

Hmm, very easy to think that but not certain to be right, here's my post in the model thread a little while ago:

One thing that that chart doesn't show West is just hos far south the ITCZ is. At last look it was about 0.5 degrees N below average. Generally in the hot summers it tends to be a good 1-2 degrees above average to the north by this stagem which then allows vast amounts of heat to be sustained over Europe.

Presently we are getting away with it thanks to the teleconnections allowing a constant Southerly, but if it gets to a point when it changes, then with the ITCZ still quite far south ,a below average summer would be possible despite the warm start that May has had. This is the reason why the Azores is so far south and is also what Steve was talking about when he said lack of Azores into Europe. We could get lucky and have the present synoptic set-up presit like August 2004 but a sustained hot dry spell would be hard going if the ICTZ doesn't get a mobve on northwards.

So actually our heat may well be the type that is dependant on the teleconnections being right. just take a look at the models to see what i mean, the heat is soon flushed away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

It doesn't matter if the GFS is wro ng because once the set-up changes the heat will go, you see, with the ICTZ still fairly far south compared to those hot years it does allow those northeries to dig right down into Europe still, IF the ICTZ was further north like 2003 then those northerlies wouldn't get into Europe as the sub-tropical belt of HP cells would rest over S.Europe building up heat constantly.

A great winter example of present synoptics is a long fetch of easterlies. The easterly wil lbe cold for a while but needs a re-fill eventually. This is occuring presently with our warm weather. Eventually though what will happen is the taps are turned off and the set-up changes and al lthe heat that has built up drains away very easily and then you are back to sqaure one again.

In other words, the heat is only there because its coming up from the south, its not yet established over Europe therefore once the flow stops, things will soon cool-down again and I forecast this to happen by the 20th and willing to say that 13.8c is WAY to high and the jet will eventually move as wil lthe LP's and once that happens the S flow will be stopped and things will cool for sure.

[Scorcher]

I certainly think a CET over 13.0c at this stage is odds on.

Any hot spell for Spain we get now will be hotter than anything we have experienced so far this May. Potentially since August last year.

The end of May last year was a very good example. Very hot last few days with temperatures around 30c.

1st week of May this year was 2.2c above average

2nd week? probably 2.4c above average

3rd week? Guess around 1.8c above average

4th week? Guess around 3.0c above average

That would mean May this year would end up at 13.8c. Or 2.4c above average (rounded up to the neared ten)

That would be the hottest since 1848 and the 5th hottest ever.

Probbaly won't go that way but if it does the period from January-May would have a combined CET of 7.0c. Or 0.4c above average.

A step closer to another yearly CET above or equal to 10.5?

This is a very good point, even if we had a week of average weather, at the end of May there is always the potential of a Spanish plume which could produce temperatures in the high 20s or even up to 30C. Certainly any potential warm spells in the last week would affect the CET more than a potential cold snap, which would not be nearly as potent as it might be at the beginning of the month. A few of days of exceptional heat would see a rapid rise in the CET.