May CET

[Dawlish]

Very interesting how this May is suddenly being portrayed as cool in some quarters (not particularly here, thank goodness!)! Comments like "when's the summer coming" and this feels like early spring" taints the memory already. I have some big issues with individual weather memory! I'd always trust the stats, rather than someone's memory of past conditions - and that includes yeasterday!!

May in the UK is not a particularly warm month at all, though there will be deviations from that bland statement. With the right synoptic conditions, May can be "sweltering" (in UK terms, at least), or it can be cold, with really damaging frosts, in some years.

It looks cooler, over the last part of this May, but only a little cooler than the end of May average and with the CET at 12.8C, +2.0, on the 21st, it would take an exceptionally cold end of May to reduce the CET close to, or below average, by the 31st. From the present gfs charts, that ain't going to happen.

Thanks to Philip Eden and http://www.climate-uk.com/ , as always, for the stats.

The cooler than average May, prophesised at the start of this thread, was a pure guess, as amateur forecasting, a month always is (no offence meant to anyone who guessed the May weather there, we're nearly all amateurs - certainly I am!). The only way I'll forecast longer term than a few hours ahead and on a local basis, is to go with my belief that GW is happening.

Thanks to Philip Eden and http://www.climate-uk.com/ , as always, for the stats.

The chances of any summer, winter, season, or month, being warmer than average, I put at 70%. 20% of the time, I'd expect a cooler than average month, 10% of the time it will be close to average (+, or - <0.25C). It has worked very well since 1990. In fact, the 70% mark has been exceeded over that length of time in all categories.

Globally, I'd go for 80% of any time period of a month, or more, being warmer than average, as the GW trend cannot not reflected perfectly in local areas, in chaotic system.

At the end of this decade, I'll reappraise and if GW continues, I'll raise my forecast percentages.

Edited May 22, 2006 by Dawlish

[kold weather]

It's certainly intresting how people have all the sudden started to think that this May has been cool when in fact we are still 2 whole C above average!

I think its the rain that relaly skews people's ideas about warm or cold. Generally if its raining then its cold, if the sun is shining, then its warm!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's certainly intresting how people have all the sudden started to think that this May has been cool when in fact we are still 2 whole C above average!

I think its the rain that relaly skews people's ideas about warm or cold. Generally if its raining then its cold, if the sun is shining, then its warm!

Correct KW but in fairness there has not been many 'hot' days either which also clouds judgement. The CET certainly does not represent how people 'feel' or remember a month or indeed season. High night time minima can somewhat be distorting because with only average daytime temps the CET would still be above average by some mark.

BFTP

Edited May 22, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dave J]

Yesterday the max at Connaught Airport, Ireland was just 6.5C, some 8C below average.

For the past 8 or so days, daytime maxima have been below average across much of England and Wales, it's just that overnight minima have been much above average for sometime which has skewed the CET.

[shuggee]

High night time minima can somewhat be distorting because with only average daytime temps the CET would still be above average by some mark.

BFTP

I think you're right there BFTP. Although tonight looks as though temps might dip down to 5ºC or so in the arbitary CET zone with a clearer spell moving across the country.

[The PIT]

It's certainly intresting how people have all the sudden started to think that this May has been cool when in fact we are still 2 whole C above average!

I think its the rain that relaly skews people's ideas about warm or cold. Generally if its raining then its cold, if the sun is shining, then its warm!

You're right Kold Weather as soon as it rains it's cold.

[Optimus Prime]

Looking at the charts now it looks like around 12.0c looks likely. That's only 0.6c above average. In my view would rank it, slightly above average.

Considering the remarkable warmth we've had up until the last few days, that's equally as notable as the offset in March.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's certainly intresting how people have all the sudden started to think that this May has been cool when in fact we are still 2 whole C above average!

I think its the rain that relaly skews people's ideas about warm or cold. Generally if its raining then its cold, if the sun is shining, then its warm!

In general I agree with that, but it didn't seem to be the case last year on N-W. People complained during the cool settled second week of May 2005 because although it was dry and sunny, daytime temperatures were a couple of degrees below average.

On N-W, in spring, it's cold if it's anything below 16C in March and April, raise that threshold to 21C in May.

[Scorcher]

Yesterday the max at Connaught Airport, Ireland was just 6.5C, some 8C below average.

For the past 8 or so days, daytime maxima have been below average across much of England and Wales, it's just that overnight minima have been much above average for sometime which has skewed the CET.

The daytime maxima haven't been below average though mostly, it's only the past 2 days when they have been slightly below average. Last week temperatures were still in the high teens quite widely, even in Northern England.

Looking at the charts now it looks like around 12.0c looks likely. That's only 0.6c above average. In my view would rank it, slightly above average.

Considering the remarkable warmth we've had up until the last few days, that's equally as notable as the offset in March.

But nothing remarkable at all has happened it terms of cold conditions this month, up to now at least. In fact up until 2 days ago we were still above average. I think that there will be too much cloud around to drop the CET to 12.0c as well, although tonight looks cold for northern areas. After that, it looks like minima should stay relatively high.

Edited May 22, 2006 by Scorcher

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The daytime maxima haven't been below average though mostly, it's only the past 2 days when they have been slightly below average. Last week temperatures were still in the high teens quite widely, even in Northern England.

But nothing remarkable at all has happened it terms of cold conditions this month, up to now at least. In fact up until 2 days ago we were still above average. I think that there will be too much cloud around to drop the CET to 12.0c as well, although tonight looks cold for northern areas. After that, it looks like minima should stay relatively high.

But generally maxima is going to be pretty low too for foreseeable future...up to this weekend at least.

BFTP

[The PIT]

Well it's still a long way above normal 1.81C at the moment with nine days left. If the skies clear further south a dint will be put into the figures. After that depends on how much cloud there is around overnight. If it cloudy and wet the temps may not fall much. For me it's looking between 12.5C and 13C I'm going to settle for 12.8C.

Edited May 22, 2006 by The PIT

[Bottesford]

Tonight will dent it I'm sure - already down to 8c here which feels awfully cold after the last few weeks. Even had to put the heating on again! Had to drag the mini radiator out the cupboard having thought I wouldn't need it till October...

[The PIT]

Tonight will dent it I'm sure - already down to 8c here which feels awfully cold after the last few weeks. Even had to put the heating on again! Had to drag the mini radiator out the cupboard having thought I wouldn't need it till October...

Down to 5.8C here the clouds trying to break. If it's does there'll certainly be a Ground frost. Unlikely to be an air frost though.

[Dawlish]

Down below 10C in Deepest Darkest Devon. No ground frost here, tonight, but there'll certainly be some Jack Frost on the ground in parts of northern England tomorrow morning, if the skies clear there, as forecast. Feels cold here. Me and the dog thought so anyway, as we ventured outside for a last wee (well, he did a wee!).

To do my bit for the planet, I've put a fleece on indoors, instead of turning the heating on: a case of "greener than thou" in DawliDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

[Red Raven]

down to 5.7 here - i think the mountains inmy back garden will get a frost tonight.

[Weather-history]

CET: (1-22nd May): 12.8 (+2.0)

Rain: (1-22nd May):86.9 mm (200%)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

In the England and Wales series (1766 series), it is now the wettest May since 2000, which had a total of 98.0mm

[Roger J Smith]

Well, it seems locked in now somewhere around 13 C. I had a look at the 00z GFS, anomalies from today to the 31st all appear rather small, the average could drop marginally today, then may drift up very, very slightly to Saturday, then down again to Monday, then up again to the 31st, but no changes more than 0.1 per day. It actually looks quite warm for the last two days of the month, otherwise, I'd have to say this has been more like a cool September than a warm May, it keeps getting colder and wetter (and windier) with every week. However, the sun keeps getting higher, so this next week, even though the warmth spreads in rather slowly and in subdued fashion, it could feel quite warm in the south on Thursday and Friday.

[The PIT]

It'll be interesting how fast the temps rise today before the showers get going.

Last night knocked .12c off the CET.

[Weather-history]

CET: (May 1-23): 12.6°C (+1.7 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1-23): 89.8mm (198 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1-23): 130.0hr ( 88 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

[kold weather]

Still looking good for a rainfall total over 100MM with the showers this afternoon and the frontal system this afternoon should hopefully be enough to tip it over the 100MM mark, also the cooler daytime maxes are finally starting to drop the CEt a little, 12.5c looks the most likely outcome now I'd guess.

[The PIT]

Dropping rapidly CET could end up at 12C at this rate.

This morning was more like winter.

[Bottesford]

Today is very like winter. Really cold morning with rain & it's still only 11.5C at 1:30pm! Almost like a mild Jan/Feb day

[kold weather]

I can still see 12.5c being pretty close to the mark, the CET will drop today for sure, but I suspect that the mild mnights that are upcoming will probably keep the CEt static or if anything cause it to rise by about 0.1C. Whatever the outcome, can't be said that this month hasn't been warm overall, even if the second half hasn't lived up to the get start from the first.

[tinybill]

just looked at the radar huge amount of raimnnow spreading up over the country again!!!!!

[kold weather]

Yes Tinybill and I think 100MM is now very likely indeed looknig at the size and foward speed that the wave feature presently has and there is certainly a chance of 100MM being breched tonight, though it may take another weak front to finish the job I suspect.