May CET

[West is Best]

Hi Richard, yes maybe it is a little premature but I stand by it. As far as the hats are concerned, if it comes to it one will be served on a bed of watercress, spinach and rocket, one will be flash fried and one will be eaten raw !

Good to hear from you again mate!

AM

Thanks AM!

Highest today 27.7C at both London weather centre and Northolt http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk.../yesterday.html

Gorgeous!

[kold weather]

Philip Eden has updated his site now. Presently the period 1-4th of MAay has turned in a CET of 12.5c though I personally think this is a little low and will be upped tommorow.

Still, quite abit above average at the moment, in fact 2.5c above!!!

[tinybill]

dont know about geting the tea shirts out looking on the weather to-night here on the east coast this weekend looks like its going to pour down over the weekend here on the east coast

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 10C

Optimus Prime: 10.3C

Terminal Moraine: 10.7C

Drfeelgood: 10.7C

Atmosfear: 11.1C

Bottesford: 11.1C

Glacier Point: 11.1C

Shuggee: 11.3C

Summer Blizzard: 11.4C

Button-wales: 11.4C

SteveB: 11.5C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 11.6C

Frozen North: 11.7C

ChrisL: 11.8C

Connor123: 11.8C

Phillip Eden: 11.8C

Sunshine: 11.9C

Great Plum: 11.9C

Nick F: 12C

Cloudburst: 12.1C

Supercell: 12.2C

Kentish Maid: 12.3C

Anti-mild: 12.3C

Foggy: 12.3C

Scorcher: 12.4C

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C

West Is Best: 12.6C

Joneseye: 12.7C

PersianPaladin: 12.8C

Thundery Wintry Showers: 12.8C

Evo: 12.9C

Petter Tattum: 12.9C

Kold Weather: 12.9C

Stricklands: 13C

Rollo: 13.1C

Reef: 13.2C

Roger J Smith: 13.7C

Stephen Prudence: 14.3C

Jon Cox: 15.1C

The majority of people seem to be going for a CET between 12C and 13C, it looks to me as though the CET may be around 14C by the 20th May, so it will depend on what happens after, while i will not change my prediction, it does look as though a hot May is on the cards.

I have added Phillip Edens prediction in from his long range forecast.

[Bottesford]

Although I'm looking to be totally wrong - I'm glad! I only like being wrong when I estimate too cold!

[West is Best]

The majority of people seem to be going for a CET between 12C and 13C, it looks to me as though the CET may be around 14C by the 20th May, so it will depend on what happens after, while i will not change my prediction, it does look as though a hot May is on the cards.

I have added Phillip Edens prediction in from his long range forecast.

I agree SB. It really is looking a pretty warm start to May, to say the least. But we all know how fast these things can change. It's just that there's no really cool weather on the horizon at the moment.

If John Cox is right I'll buy him a bottle of wine (but not Ch Margaux, John! B) )

[summer blizzard]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 12.5C, which is 1.1C above average.

[Weather-history]

According to Phillip Eden, the current CET is 12.5C, which is 1.1C above average.

SB

I don't understand why you keep comparing Phil's CET value with the month as a whole? Phil provides the info on how much above or below the average is at that moment.

For instance as you said its 12.5C but, its 2.6C above the average for the 5th of May.

Edited May 6, 2006 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Looking highly likely that we will see a very warm May CET, I think a good 1C above is highly likely though just how warm it will end up is highly uncertain, simply dependant on what the synoptic set-up does and whether we can keep southern blocking going.

[summer blizzard]

Mr Data, i compare the value against the monthly average because the daily average changes, when people look at todays figure, some of the newbies can be fooled into thinking that the month as a whole will end up 2C+ above average, when in reality, the deviation from average for the month as a whole is much less.

[Sunshine]

Another thing to remember, a warm May does not always mean a warm summer, look at 1992 and 1998.

Edited May 6, 2006 by Sunshine

[Weather-history]

CET: (May 1- 6): 12.1°C (+2.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (May 1- 6): 5.3mm ( 45 per cent)

E&W Sun: (May 1- 6): 46.4hr (127 per cent)

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

The first week of May 2006 will not be as warm as the first week of May 2005.

Edited May 7, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

Mr Data, i compare the value against the monthly average because the daily average changes, when people look at todays figure, some of the newbies can be fooled into thinking that the month as a whole will end up 2C+ above average, when in reality, the deviation from average for the month as a whole is much less.

Personally, I'm not sure if that stacks up.

Comparing to the average for 1-5 May shows that the month has been 2.6C above the long-term average so far. The sun getting higher in the sky, etc, causes temperatures to rise as the month of May progresses. Therefore, if the same synoptics were to prevail for the rest of the month we might expect an anomaly of 2.6C.

Comparing to the average for the whole of May misses the fact that temperatures typically rise as the month progresses.

[Weather-history]

So far this year is similiar to 1964, maybe not so much in the synoptics but there are other similiarities.

The winter of 1963-64 and 2005-06 were both dry winters. It was a colder winter further south to the average than further north. Both Marches were cold overall and were wetter than any of the winter months. It wasn't until 18C was first reached until later in April for both years.

[Bottesford]

So far this year is similiar to 1964, maybe not so much in the synoptics but there are other similiarities.

The winter of 1963-64 and 2005-06 were both dry winters. It was a colder winter further south to the average than further north. Both Marches were cold overall and were wetter than any of the winter months. It wasn't until 18C was first reached until later in April for both years.

And their summers? Not that pattern matching really works but still...

[Weather-history]

And their summers? Not that pattern matching really works but still...

Nothing special. There was a heatwave at the back end of August 1964, maxima got into the 30s.

May 1964 was a very warm one.

[Thundery wintry showers]

September 1964 was one of the sunniest on record- if we had a September like that, it would make it four exceptionally sunny Septembers in a row, and in many western and southern areas, five in a row.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nothing special. There was a heatwave at the back end of August 1964, maxima got into the 30s.

May 1964 was a very warm one.

Very interesting Mr data. It will be interesting to see how this develops, my summer LRF using my method suggests the same re August and also a very warm September notably so at beginning and the end going into October....where records will be under threat for that time of year.

BFTP

[Sunshine]

Very interesting Mr data. It will be interesting to see how this develops, my summer LRF using my method suggests the same re August and also a very warm September notably so at beginning and the end going into October....where records will be under threat for that time of year.

BFTP

Maybe a very warm start to early September to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1906 heatwave

[West is Best]

Yesterday was an interesting example of how deceptive appearances in the CET zone can be if you're under a rain belt. Despite one or two relatively chilly areas, the overall maxima and minima both exceeded the average for the time of year: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0605.htm

Despite this, the absolute value on the NW tracker (though not the Manley CET) came a shade off the 13C mark, not because it was below average but because it wasn't as much above average as the peak period around the 3rd-5th of the month.

The rest of this week looks pretty mild to warm, so we could expect the NW tracker to be somewhere around the 12.5 to 13C mark (perhaps more) by the mid point of the month. Then it's all to play for!

[West is Best]

Yesterday was another very warm day in the CET zone http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0605.htm with the Manley CET up to 12.5C now: 2.4C above the adjusted average: http://www.climate-uk.com/

Where will it go from here? A warm-ish rest of the week up to Saturday is on the cards, followed by a slightly cooler weekend for some but probably still well above average in the CET zone. After that the models suggest a further warm period. If that happens we are looking at a particularly warm May. We could be looking at something fairly remarkable. However, it's still only a third of the way through the month, so still a long way to go and these things have a habit of changing!

[Bottesford]

Well we're up to 12.5 so maybe 13C+ month? 1998 was the last time that happened (13.1) then you go back to 1992 (13.6 - warmest since 1848!) with 1999 just missing it at 12.9.

Warmest May's:

[kold weather]

Possibly though I do suspect there wil lbe a slight cool-down from Mid-May onwards which will rpboably prevent us from reaching 13C I reckon, though it's already looking highly likely we will have a CET thats above average, anything higher and that depends strongly on just what type of set-up we get after Mid-May.

[Scorcher]

In my opinion it's almost certain that the CET will end up above 13C. After the first 10 days we're already going to be around 13, and after a slight cool down which might bring it down to around 12.5, I think the last third of the month will take it back above 13C.

[summer blizzard]

Rather than splitting the month in half, i think it is better to split the month into 3, as the first ten days have produced a CET of 12.5C, and the next ten days look well above average upto the 18th, i would be suprised if the CET does not hit 13.5C before dropping down to around 13C by the 20th, the last ten days look to be near average at this early stage although by that time the average rises to between 12C and 13C anyway, so i think a CET between 12.5C and 13C is most likely.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/datmrfcompare.asp