May CET

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

After a very nice start I think we could be dominated by easterly/ne'ly set up which will bring a generally grey cool set up but I think a warm spell will set in around last week to 10 days and this will lift the CET somewhat. I think I'll go for below average and a 10.9C for me.

BFTP

Edited April 27, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Joneseye]

I too think (hope) it will be fairly warm and am plumping fot 12.7 seen as nobody else has picked it yet!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

11.6; a whole, whopping 0.2 above average!

[Roger J Smith]

With that large high drifting ever closer to Europe from the northeast, there is probably more chance of a warm month than a cool month. However, the flow would be east to southeast a fair amount of the time and the North Sea has been chilled by the run of colder than average months around its shores (especially the other shores). Nevertheless, I think May could challenge the outlier of 1833 which I believe was a degree or more warmer than all other Mays at 15 C. So let's say 13.7 to put the prediction between the pack and the record. I have the feeling there will be long warm spells in May this year, the only question being, very warm or just slightly warm?

Mr Data -- any idea how the extreme warmth of May 1833 developed? I notice from the CET records that it was almost but not quite the warmest month of the year! (July was a little warmer).

[kold weather]

Might actually do West has done and change my CET, something I don't normally do but the jet looks like its going to be in a great position for warmth, slightly further north then I thought it would lay, enough to induce a SE rather then NE flow.

I'll go with 12.9C, never thought I'd put in a higher CET then West!!!

[Rollo]

I think this may will turn out warmer than average so 13.1c is my guess.

[John Cox]

My Guess is 15.1C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

After a very nice start I think we could be dominated by easterly/ne'ly set up which will bring a generally grey cool set up but I think a warm spell will set in around last week to 10 days and this will lift the CET somewhat. I think I'll go for below average and a 10.9C for me.

BFTP

I'll add caveat that last 10 days in my LRF is to produce first 'summer' warmth and if SE wind sets in then 13c possible.

BFTP

[West is Best]

My Guess is 15.1C

Hi John - either you've had a Damascus Road experience or it's a typo? 15.1C would make it the warmest May ever by a mile. 13.9C in 1849 is the hottest ever May. Are you serious?! That would be absolutely astonishing!

[kold weather]

Actuallu to my knowleadge the warmest May ever was in 1833 at 15C, still it would make John's 15.1C still the warmest ever May.

it's quite funny how after a few warmer runs and everyone goes for a warmer then average May!

[West is Best]

Actuallu to my knowleadge the warmest May ever was in 1833 at 15C,

Good lord - you're absolutely right! May1833 was 15.1C a full 1.2C above next nearest warm May. That is absolutely astonishing - I wonder if that's a record for any month's gap on the CET stats. John - I take it all back. But that would be an amzingly warm month!

[Weather-history]

Good lord - you're absolutely right! May1833 was 15.1C a full 1.2C above next nearest warm May. That is absolutely astonishing - I wonder if that's a record for any month's gap on the CET stats. John - I take it all back. But that would be an amzingly warm month!

I think it is as the next biggest gap is between October 1740 with a CET of 5.3 and October 1817 with a CET of 6.4

May 1833 was a freak month and I can't see that record falling for an extremely long time.

[Snowly does it]

10 on the button for me

[Foggy]

I think we'll start warmish, and then cool off, but only wih a breif cooler spell mid month, before warmth arrives oround the 25th.

based on this speculative interpretation, I'm going for 12.3

[John Cox]

Good lord - you're absolutely right! May1833 was 15.1C a full 1.2C above next nearest warm May. That is absolutely astonishing - I wonder if that's a record for any month's gap on the CET stats. John - I take it all back. But that would be an amzingly warm month!

Hi Richard,

Good to see you back on NW and in flying form.

My Winter hat is off and my Summer one on.

It must be a premonition. I did not know what there was a May record of 15.1C.

It is was a bit of "tongue in cheek" though, so lets see how it goes..

[drfeelgood]

Despite the above average April, I think this spring will be cool overall.

So I'm going for 10.7 C

[summer blizzard]

Snowmaiden: 10C

Optimus Prime: 10.3C

Terminal Moraine: 10.7C

Drfeelgood: 10.7C

Atmosfear: 11.1C

Bottesford: 11.1C

Glacier Point: 11.1C

Summer Blizzard: 11.4C

Button-wales: 11.4C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 11.6C

Frozen North: 11.7C

ChrisL: 11.8C

Sunshine: 11.9C

Great Plum: 11.9C

Nick F: 12C

Cloudburst: 12.1C

Supercell: 12.2C

Kentish Maid: 12.3C

Anti-mild: 12.3C

Foggy: 12.3C

Scorcher: 12.4C

SNOW-MAN2006: 12.5C

West Is Best: 12.6C

Joneseye: 12.7C

PersianPaladin: 12.8C

Evo: 12.9C

Petter Tattum: 12.9C

Kold Weather: 12.9C

Stricklands: 13C

Rollo: 13.1C

Roger J Smith: 13.7C

Jon Cox: 15.1C

Blast from the past, are you going for 10.9C or 13C??????

[reef]

13.2°C for me. The current pattern looks very much like last October with a persistent high to our east. Such features are difficult to shift at the best of times, but in May with a weak jet it seems even more unlikely to me.

[Bottesford]

Ah yes the October pattern... T-shirt weather at midnight in late October- really strange that it was. Although it was pretty grey most of the time as I remember.

[kold weather]

I agree Reef, it does have a the hallmarks of a warm May, with winds constantly between a S/SE direction.

One thing does look sure though presently, unless one of those Depressions to our SW moves towards, it could be yet another dry month.

[Bottesford]

eek and there was me giving a below average prediction for the first time ever! Still, I'll be very glad to be proved wrong and have a steaming hot May. Looks fantastic for Friday at present and into FI with those SE winds coming our way.

[shuggee]

After several painstaking hours of statistical analysis, trend watching and pouring over numerical models and dividing by the teleconnections forecast I've come up with 11.3ºC.

I need a cup of tea now.

[Methuselah]

After several painstaking hours of statistical analysis, trend watching and pouring over numerical models and dividing by the teleconnections forecast I've come up with 11.3ºC.

I need a cup of tea now.

Not to worry, Shuggs. I guessed too!

[West is Best]

Hi Richard,

Good to see you back on NW and in flying form.

It is was a bit of "tongue in cheek" though, so lets see how it goes..

Thanks John! It's great to be back. Behaving myself too!

[conor123]

11.8c