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May CET


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I have opened this thread to discuss the May CET value, will this year give us our first below average May in ten years, or will it keep the status quo.

I am pleased with my April CET prediction, which for the fourth month in a row, looks like being within 0.5C of the final figure.

My CET prediction based on telleconnections is 11.8C, which is 0.5C above average.

My CET prediction based on anologues is 11C, which is 0.3C below average.

My CET predictions based on both these factors is 11.4C, which is 0.1C above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

11.1C for me! Seems to be a fair few forecasts going for a cooler May so will go with that. A hot plume at the end will yank the CET up to near average.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

MAY

...had a CET greater than 14C

1833 15.1

...had a CET greater than 13C

1998 13.1

...had a CET less than 10C

1996 9.1

...had a CET less than 9C

1902 8.9

...was warmer than June

1833 May 15.1 June 14.6

...was colder than April

1987 Apr 10.3 May 10.1

...was warmer than September

1992 May 13.6 Sept 13.4

There have been 4 instances of 2 consecutive Mays having a CET of 13 and greater

1726 13.4; 1727 13.6

1808 13.7; 1809 13.1

1833 15.1; 1834 13.0

1918 13.0; 1919 13.5

The longest run of sub 10 CET Mays is 4 from 1692 to 1695

The longest interval between sub 10 CET Mays is 31 years+ from 1659 to 1690

The shortest interval between sub 9 CET Mays is 6 years from 1879 to 1885

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Location: Worcestershire

I feel that mid May will prove to be the first 'real' taste of summer but soon returning to slightly cooler weather towards the end, but the cet will be around 12.1c i think, due to a slightly above average month, but cooler days will out number the warm/hot days. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

10.7c, because it goes against everything in my nature to predict a warmer than average month.

T.M

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

I have a feeling this will be a much cooler than average month. Last time we had a colder than average May was 1996 with a CET of 9.1c (second coldest of the 20th century) and was 2.3c below average.

I'm going for 10.3c. 1.1c below average

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

I'm going for 12.0C.

I see a continuation of periods of unsettled Atlantic weather at times with dry warm days in between. Also Mays have generally been above average CET wise since 1996 apart from last year which was close to average - so an above average May CET for me, but not by too much.

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire

I'll go for 12.4- I think the short run of below average months has now come to an end and we will be back to the old trend of above average although not massively so.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

With uncertainty over the Arctic Oscillation, this is a very difficult call and guesses could be spectacularly wrong.

I'm going for an underying -ve NAO pattern, which should become increasingly evident through the mid to later part of May, the first week very unsettled but essentially average or just above. Overall an average or just below month, 11.1 C for me please.

GP

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Based on Internet Connections, I'm going for 12.9C... :D

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees

I think I'll plump for 12.3c.

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