May CET

[summer blizzard]

I have opened this thread to discuss the May CET value, will this year give us our first below average May in ten years, or will it keep the status quo.

I am pleased with my April CET prediction, which for the fourth month in a row, looks like being within 0.5C of the final figure.

My CET prediction based on telleconnections is 11.8C, which is 0.5C above average.

My CET prediction based on anologues is 11C, which is 0.3C below average.

My CET predictions based on both these factors is 11.4C, which is 0.1C above average.

[kentish maid]

12.3oC, nothing scientific behind it, just women's intuition

[frozen_north]

I'll say 11.7C, 04C above average. Just based on instinct

[Somerset Squall]

I'll go for 11.1C

[Sunshine]

I'll go for 11.9C

[Bottesford]

11.1C for me! Seems to be a fair few forecasts going for a cooler May so will go with that. A hot plume at the end will yank the CET up to near average.

[Weather-history]

MAY

...had a CET greater than 14C

1833 15.1

...had a CET greater than 13C

1998 13.1

...had a CET less than 10C

1996 9.1

...had a CET less than 9C

1902 8.9

...was warmer than June

1833 May 15.1 June 14.6

...was colder than April

1987 Apr 10.3 May 10.1

...was warmer than September

1992 May 13.6 Sept 13.4

There have been 4 instances of 2 consecutive Mays having a CET of 13 and greater

1726 13.4; 1727 13.6

1808 13.7; 1809 13.1

1833 15.1; 1834 13.0

1918 13.0; 1919 13.5

The longest run of sub 10 CET Mays is 4 from 1692 to 1695

The longest interval between sub 10 CET Mays is 31 years+ from 1659 to 1690

The shortest interval between sub 9 CET Mays is 6 years from 1879 to 1885

[PersianPaladin]

I'll go for 12.8C

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm going to go for 11.8oC (although if the azores high kicks in with more strength, something more akin to PP may be likely).

[SNOW-MAN2006]

my forecast c.e.t for may is:

12.5 -with a very warm spell to begin and end with an unsettled period mid-month bringing cooler periods for a time

SNOW-MAN2006

[Cloudburst]

I feel that mid May will prove to be the first 'real' taste of summer but soon returning to slightly cooler weather towards the end, but the cet will be around 12.1c i think, due to a slightly above average month, but cooler days will out number the warm/hot days.

[kold weather]

I'll go with 10.9C, though I dare say this will probably be a little on the low side.

[Terminal Moraine]

10.7c, because it goes against everything in my nature to predict a warmer than average month.

T.M

[Evo]

12.9 c

[stricklands]

ill stick my neck out and go for 13

[A Gower Guy]

I'll go for 11.4°c

[Optimus Prime]

I have a feeling this will be a much cooler than average month. Last time we had a colder than average May was 1996 with a CET of 9.1c (second coldest of the 20th century) and was 2.3c below average.

I'm going for 10.3c. 1.1c below average

[Nick F]

I'm going for 12.0C.

I see a continuation of periods of unsettled Atlantic weather at times with dry warm days in between. Also Mays have generally been above average CET wise since 1996 apart from last year which was close to average - so an above average May CET for me, but not by too much.

[Scorcher]

I'll go for 12.4- I think the short run of below average months has now come to an end and we will be back to the old trend of above average although not massively so.

[Glacier Point]

With uncertainty over the Arctic Oscillation, this is a very difficult call and guesses could be spectacularly wrong.

I'm going for an underying -ve NAO pattern, which should become increasingly evident through the mid to later part of May, the first week very unsettled but essentially average or just above. Overall an average or just below month, 11.1 C for me please.

GP

[Great Plum]

11.9c for me

[Methuselah]

Based on Internet Connections, I'm going for 12.9C...

[Supercell]

I shall go for around 12.2C mark.

[Anti-Mild]

I think I'll plump for 12.3c.

[West is Best]

Well as it's not yet May I'm changing my prediction - and based on the synoptics.

I'm going for a 12.6C.

Think we might be in for a warm one ...