North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Daniel*]

ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal. pic.twitter.com/UGTCCoIoeH

Bitter Cold Just a inkling, The UK never gets cold on this scale, does the warmer waters which surround us moderate the cold?

[knocker]

Bitter Cold

Just a inkling, The UK never gets cold on this scale, does the warmer waters which surround us moderate the cold?

 

The fact that we are surrounded by water does effect our temperature variation but essentially the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift modify the air from the west ( we normally get a west to east flow) to give us a temperate climate..Otherwise we might be like Canada.

[knocker]

8-10 day outlook.

Edited March 19, 2014 by knocker

[Coopsy]

Snowfall warning issued here for possible 6 inches of snow tomorrow.

[knocker]

Utterly pointless but interesting charts.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2014 by knocker

[Daniel*]

The fact that we are surrounded by water does effect our temperature variation but essentially the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift modify the air from the west ( we normally get a west to east flow) to give us a temperate climate..Otherwise we might be like Canada.

Cheer for that "lesson" in essence the waters (Atlantic Ocean) are part of the Gulf Stream - if there was land where the Atlantic was then it would be significantly colder - its a love/hate partnership. I would like it to be cold & snowy although it would dent our economy, and then we would all get tired and demand for cheaper electricity.I would love to experience true cold -20C being in london we're lucky to get down to -5c little pathetic.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cheer for that "lesson" in essence the waters (Atlantic Ocean) are part of the Gulf Stream - if there was land where the Atlantic was then it would be significantly colder - its a love/hate partnership. I would like it to be cold & snowy although it would dent our economy, and then we would all get tired and demand for cheaper electricity.

I would love to experience true cold -20C being in london we're lucky to get down to -5c little pathetic.

-20c is nothing to write home about honestly..only when it gets to -30c and below does it get interesting

[knocker]

-20c is nothing to write home about honestly..only when it gets to -30c and below does it get interesting

 

Quite warm where you are CM

 

Thanks to a "Rex Block," Winter Is Staying Put in the East

 

At least that’s what the weather models are saying. It’s looking increasingly likely that an exceptional late-season Arctic blast will hit in just a few days, adding to the winter fatigue East of the Rockies.

 

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is calling it “an interesting late cold season weather pattern.†By this time next week, I’ll bet some people will be choosing slightly more colorful adjectives.

 

The forecast shows a “Rex Blockâ€â€”named after the first meteorologist to crack this particular pattern—currently forming off the West Coast. Blocking patterns are pretty much what they sound like: quasi-stable arrangement of high and low pressure centers that join forces to gum up the works of the atmosphere, freezing in place—and in some cases, amplifying—the weather du jour. In this case, winter.

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/19/rex_block_forecast_shows_winter_is_staying_put_in_the_east.html

Edited March 19, 2014 by knocker

[cheeky_monkey]

In the middle of a full blown blizzard...early mark for me today i think

Edited March 20, 2014 by cheeky_monkey

[knocker]

 

Warmer conditions are on the way as Spring beings but for how long? I have the details of cooler weather for next week and a threat for rain and snow showers next week!

[knocker]

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in half of the continental United States are at minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern Great Lakes region due to above-average snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground. Additionally, drought is expected to continue in California and the Southwest.

 

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140320_springoutlook.html

[Coopsy]

In the middle of a full blown blizzard...early mark for me today i think

It's totally missing us todday - no accunulation at all just wet light snow. Non event here and they forecast lots too. Pfft what do they know

[knocker]

Full resolution GFS 06z showed Nor'east at 961 mb w/70-knot winds at 10-meters due east of Cape Cod. +132 hrs

Edited March 21, 2014 by knocker

[jonboy]

I see that the ski resort of Stowe in Vermont has recieved 5ft of snow this march already not bad for early spring!!! No doubt that north easter will give another 6 to 12 inches over the weekend

Edited March 21, 2014 by jonboy

[knocker]

More on the 'bomb'.

 

Hey, East Coast, a “Nor’easter Bomb†Might Be Heading Your Way

 

In fact, one particular model, the GFS—the best long-range model produced by the United States—is forecasting the storm to strengthen at more than twice the rate necessary for a bomb, from 995 millibars Tuesday evening off the North Carolina coast to 968 millibars Wednesday morning off Long Island, just 12 hours later. That same model is forecasting the storm to peak with sustained surface winds of hurricane force over the ocean by Wednesday afternoon. At that same time, in the jet stream well above the surface, winds are expected to top 170 mph—fueling the rapid growth of the storm and increasing its “bombâ€-making potential.

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/21/nor_easter_bomb_rex_block_new_winter_storm_may_be_headed_east.html

Edited March 21, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Adding a version of EPS Ensemble mean to http://Powerful nor'easter could bring NJ damaging winds, coastal flooding and more snow

Edited March 22, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

GFS still going for explosive cyclogenesis Tues/Weds. The discussion at the moment seems to be where rather than when.

Edited March 22, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Eric Holthaus â€@EricHolthaus 4h

The last four GFS runs (including the current one – 00z @ 959mb) have had a nearly direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia pic.twitter.com/cXHx7EPTs4

 

 

[picog]

Eric Holthaus â€@EricHolthaus 4hThe last four GFS runs (including the current one – 00z @ 959mb) have had a nearly direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia pic.twitter.com/cXHx7EPTs4

That's a pretty fearsome looking beast!

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 1h

Not buying this far GFS 12z east ... hurricane force winds on backside early Wed. pic.twitter.com/1FqLPF6HvJ

 

[knocker]

Looking at the 1200 ECMWF EPS 51 member Low intensities... many are in 940s. If you have access the HR ECMWF imagery for the NE US it's worth keeping as an example of  cyclogenesis. Assuming that is it goes to plan.

[knocker]

Why the Forecast for Tuesday’s East Coast Storm Is So Uncertain

 

After a spring-like weekend for many winter-weary Easterners, cold and snow are set to make a comeback this week. New data show a huge storm—a clash of cold air from the Arctic and moisture drawn north from the Caribbean—will give at least a glancing blow to millions from D.C. to New England, with a worst-case scenario of an epic blizzard still not off the table.

 

 

 

All models show bombogenesis Tuesday night with 12-hour pressure falls around 30 millibars and 18-hour pressure falls near 40 millibars which is quite remarkable. Models have sub-970 millibar low crossing our latitude Wednesday morning and sub-960 millibar approaching Nova Scotia.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/23/nor_easter_bomb_fujiwhara_effect_why_the_forecast_for_tuesday_s_storm_is.html

Edited March 23, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Greg Carbin â€@GCarbin 4h

Latest 12km NAM forecasting 12h pressure falls of more than 52mb between Tues. night and Wed. morning! #Bombogenesis pic.twitter.com/uo0IWugGKO

 

The ECMWF 00 has the storm 953mb SW Nova Scotia at Thurs 00. At same time the GFS has it over the tip of NV 960s mbs.

Edited March 24, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The most powerful Nor'easter of the year will gather strength over the waters offshore of Virginia on Tuesday, then head northeast and bring damaging winds, heavy rain and snow, and a substantial storm surge to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland Canada on Wednesday. The storm will brush Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing at least six inches of snow and wind gusts of up to 60 mph. A Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch are posted for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, where a NOAA storm surge model run using the winds from the 00Z run of the GFS model predicted almost a 2 foot surge could occur on Wednesday morning. A surge of this magnitude is capable of causing minor to moderate flooding.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2651

Edited March 24, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Wave heights now forecasted to >14m (>45ft) off Nova Scotia with nor'easter. Animation: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-US_eastcoast