North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Coopsy]

Statements

10:31 AM ADT Monday 24 March 2014

Special weather statement in effect for:

[*]Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Winter storm likely on Wednesday.

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to track near Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Very strong winds and significant snowfall are expected with this system.

The snow is forecast to begin Wednesday morning and be heavy at times. The snow is forecast to change to rain in the afternoon over the eastern half of the mainland and Cape Breton but then change back to snow Wednesday night. The snow is expected to taper off by Thursday morning. Strong winds are forecast to develop ahead of the system on Wednesday and persist as the system pulls away Thursday. The strong winds and snow will cause reduced visibility in blowing snow.

Although there is still considerable uncertainty with respect to exact snowfall amounts, computer models are consistently indicating significant accumulations. There is good potential for parts of the province to see total snowfall accumulations exceeding 25 centimetres with this system.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings. Warnings will likely be issued by Tuesday morning.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at WWW.WEATHER.GC.CA.

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 2h

GFS 18z 952 mb minimum pressure from full-resolution surface pressure fields with hurricane force sustained winds. pic.twitter.com/3MKPGDwiCz

 

[knocker]

Just had a quick look at the 00z runs for GFS, GEM and ECWMF and they are all very similar to the above. Can't post the images as the ones I'm looking at are ©.

[knocker]

The 0600 GFS has the storm just south of Nova Scotia 959mb with some pretty horrendous conditions. Heavy snow along the adjacent coastal strip and gusts of 80+ knots.

[knocker]

Jeff Masters on the Washington mudslide.

 

 

The death toll has grown to fourteen from Saturday's massive landslide near Oso, Washington, located about 50 miles north-northeast of Seattle. At least seven were injured, and 176 are listed as missing, though this total is likely to decrease dramatically as missing people check in. The landslide was triggered by unusually heavy rains over the past 30 days in the region. A personal weather station located about ten miles west of the slide recorded 13.81" of precipitation in the 30 days prior to the slide, including 5.17" in the ten days just before. Precipitation imagery from NOAA's Advanced Hydrological Precipitation Service (Figure 2) shows that the 30-day precipitation amounts in the region were more than 8" above average--about double the usual amount of rain for this time of year.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2652

 

But perhaps this should be read as well.

 

Risk of slide ‘unforeseen’? Warnings go back decades

 

TIMES WATCHDOG: While a Snohomish County official said the area hit by the mudslide “was considered very safe,†the hillside’s history of slides dates back more than 60 years. One expert says he was shocked when homebuilding was permitted after a big 2006 slide

 

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2023218573_mudslidewarningsxml.html

Edited March 25, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The models are being very consistent with this storm  The 12z NAM has it just south of Nova Scotia 954mb 00z Thurs with much the same snow and wind as already stated.

[knocker]

Fascinating: MT worth a look

 

GFS 12z anim GIF of explosive intensification of Nor'easter into 954 mb "warm seclusion" http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_2014032512_pres_uv10m_east3.gif 

[knocker]

Eric Holthaus â€@EricHolthaus 12m

What the storm will look like this time tomorrow, via the US Navy's forecast model: Ginormous. h/t @CaptDavidRyan pic.twitter.com/pq95YJWIgR

 

[be cause]

Eric Holthaus â€@EricHolthaus 12m

What the storm will look like this time tomorrow, via the US Navy's forecast model: Ginormous. h/t @CaptDavidRyan pic.twitter.com/pq95YJWIgR

looks like ' the eye of the cat '

 

 I cannot believe that puddycat was censored !!! ..

Edited March 25, 2014 by be cause

[knocker]

Incredible storm now forming off the East Coast as energy phases. Pressure will fall ~30mb overnight. pic.twitter.com/kpFmpn7aMV

 

 

This will b last update tonight on current low position (x) and projected track from yesterday. Center down to 992mb pic.twitter.com/1bUjuBxF7M

 

 

[knocker]

Eric Holthaus â€@EricHolthaus 25s

 High res 06z NAM wind gusts to over 100mph just offshore Nova Scotia later today (4pm et)... hold on to yer hats pic.twitter.com/nLaa1cMpGu

 

 

[knocker]

Map

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.66,36.37,497

[knocker]

The 1800 RGEM has the storm south west of NS 958mb at 0300 whilst the GFS has it 963mb just on the tip of NS at 0600.

[knocker]

Rodney Barney â€@rcbstormpost 11h

Will obviously require further updating, but an early look at peak #nlwx winds so far. Record 186 kmh at #Wreckhouse. pic.twitter.com/3bbDpB5kbv

 

 

[knocker]

I have to say the models handled this storm exceptionally well..

 

 

The strongest Nor'easter of 2014 blasted Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia on Wednesday with wind gusts over 100 mph and up to a half meter (19.5") of snow, bringing travel to a standstill and causing power outages that affected about 17,000 customers in Nova Scotia. The mighty storm intensified rapidly on Wednesday afternoon, "bombing" to a central pressure by 2pm EDT of 955 mb--similar to the central pressure of a Category 3 hurricane. The storm's pressure fall of 45 mb in 24 hours is among the greatest on record for a Nor'easter (for comparison, the 1978 Cleveland Superbomb had a pressure drop of 43 millibars in 24 hours, also to 955 mb.) The La Have Bank buoy south of Halifax, Nova Scotia measured a pressure of 957 mb as the center of the storm passed nearby, along with significant wave heights of 29 feet. A wind gust of 129 mph was measured on Wednesday at the Bay of Fundy, and sustained winds of 89 mph with a gust to 115 mph was recorded between 6:30 - 7:30 pm EDT in Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, beating the previous strongest gust of 112 mph set in 2007 (Wreckhouse is named for the terrain-enhanced winds that often cause destruction.) Grand Étangon the Gulf of St Lawrence side of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia recorded top sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 102 mph. This location is susceptible to strong "Les Suêtes" winds in this type of setup--"Suêtes" is a dialectal corruption of French "sud-est," or "southeast". These southeasterly winds travel up over Cape Breton and a funneling effect intensifies them as they blow downslope toward the Gulf of St Lawrence. As a result, these gusts are not truly representative of the storm, but rather the storm plus local terrain effects. Environment Canada has a special "Les Suêtes Wind Warning", and issued it for Wednesday's storm.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2653

[Coopsy]

^ I have to agree...very good job. The forecasters were warning of this end of last week and everyone here in Canada had enough notice to prepare but still....what a storm

[knocker]

Great Sat pic from NOAA Sats yesterday.

 

Coastal Low Rapidly Deepens

[knocker]

Drought expands across the US this week, especially TX/OK. Lower 48 drought coverage up 7% since Jan 1. pic.twitter.com/yJFlO8M4j6

 

 

[damianslaw]

I see Winnepeg remains locked in the freezer with maxima early next week set to stay well below freezing at -10 degrees, this must be one of the longest lasting winters for many a year in that part of the world. What is causing the PV to remain so stuck in position???? answers please.

 

Whereas Minneapolis and Chicago are finally set to see some spring warmth with maxima in the mid teens albeit things look like turning freezing again mid week.

 

Once the PV finally goes on the wane, I suspect there will be a major warm up from one extreme to the other such is nature.

 

Its been an unusual winter season over the northern hemisphere, quite often anomalous cold over NE Canada/NE USA goes hand in hand with anomalous cold in North Europe, Russia and China with only Alaska and NW Canada seeing anomalous warmth. Not this year, only those parts have seen cold the rest of the northern hemisphere has been very mild. I don't think we'll see an equivalent winter like it for a good number of years to come.

[knocker]

Just to add Siberia also had anomalous heat

Edited March 29, 2014 by knocker

[Coopsy]

Well what an interesting week. Whilst the city had a week of snow we had absolutely no snow - i'm happy. I cant speak for cheeky monkey though lol

[knocker]

Seattle sets record for all-time wettest March

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Seattle-sets-record-for-all-time-wettest-March--252968331.html

[knocker]

Potentially a 'winter' storm for the record books on the way to Minneapolis. Fcast/stats via @NWSTwinCities. pic.twitter.com/7vCBcprrSy

 

[cheeky_monkey]

We had a brief flirtation with spring yesterday..nearly got above freezing with lots of sunshine..back to cold and snow this morning though...however this could be the end of winter..looks like warming up markedly over the next few days could be into the mid teens early next week...phew at last!

[keithlucky]

Giant hailstones smash cars in Kansas http://t.co/Z9aKCOXXL4