Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

[paul tall]

I love the Met Office winter forecast........it could be mild or it could be cold, it could be wet or it could be dry.

Superb, nowt like sticking your neck on the line.

[Snowly does it]

I love the Met Office winter forecast........it could be mild or it could be cold, it could be wet or it could be dry.

Superb, nowt like sticking your neck on the line.

I think thats the point though, from a position of saying winter looked milder, uncertainties have crept in taking them towards a more 'cold' forecast. Reading between the lines, I think colder than average is the current expectation but with low confidence (given the uncertainties of the El Nino developing), hence the forecast reflects this, it is a sensible step, informing of possible colder conditions whilst retaining the ability to move back towards their original forecast if what they anticipate does not materialise over the next couple of months.

[johnholmes]

agree much more with the SM comment than the PT one.

No one is 'sitting on the fence' they are simply trying to give an honest position. As usual with these issues, as many feel so strongly about the winter, the full text is rarely read carefully and thought about before creating suitable knock type headlines or comments. It is just the same with TWO or Metcheck. Read their full output carefully before making comments and do quote in context folks.

John

[smith25]

agree much more with the SM comment than the PT one.

No one is 'sitting on the fence' they are simply trying to give an honest position. As usual with these issues, as many feel so strongly about the winter, the full text is rarely read carefully and thought about before creating suitable knock type headlines or comments. It is just the same with TWO or Metcheck. Read their full output carefully before making comments and do quote in context folks.

John

Sorry but the average person on the street doesn't have your wisdom and will read it exactly as it states cold/warm wet/dry and thats exactly how they see it. They need to be more specific Like "we predicted ealier that winter would be above average but its now looking like theres a greater chance of colder weather during the later part of winter".

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

agree much more with the SM comment than the PT one.

No one is 'sitting on the fence' they are simply trying to give an honest position. As usual with these issues, as many feel so strongly about the winter, the full text is rarely read carefully and thought about before creating suitable knock type headlines or comments. It is just the same with TWO or Metcheck. Read their full output carefully before making comments and do quote in context folks.

John

Indeed and I think it is an important development as there are clearly signs of cold potential 'at present' otherwise they would not issue any change. Without wishing to suggest what the METO boys and girls are thinking because I don't know but my thoughts are that there is a decent signal currently and trending ever so slowly more favourably for colder conditions to develop.

BFTP

[Snowly does it]

Sorry but the average person on the street doesn't have your wisdom and will read it exactly as it states cold/warm wet/dry and thats exactly how they see it. They need to be more specific Like "we predicted ealier that winter would be above average but its now looking like theres a greater chance of colder weather during the later part of winter".

The full text does indeed say words to that effect. Its not the MetO's fault if people cherry pick bits of the forecast for headlines or whatever.

The actual forecast explains the reason they have changed their original forecast and gives some detail on coldness more anticipated in later winter.

Indeed and I think it is an important development as there are clearly signs of cold potential 'at present' otherwise they would not issue any change. Without wishing to suggest what the METO boys and girls are thinking because I don't know but my thoughts are that there is a decent signal currently and trending ever so slowly more favourably for colder conditions to develop.

BFTP

Yes, I agree 100% with that, it is my feeling reading it that they have picked up on a clear colder signal at 'low confidence' level. Hence if this does not pan out they are in a position to move away from it, or towards it as the facts become apparant. I think it is very well presented, and it makes it clear that the coming winter is at present hard to predict.

[Coopsy]

From a southeast stand point, it sounds like it could go along the same routes as the past few years, with the most notable snow events occuring in early in late Feb/ early March

[The PIT]

Isn't there always a chance of cold in Winter ??????

For the UK they're suggesting an average Winter temp wise. Europe as a whole its sit on the fence time. Rainfall wise they're not saying anything much. Anyway who knows perhaps the data isn't telling them very much and if thats the case they've got to say so. Also remember they got a huge tanning for last years forecast after the press got at it and blew it all out of proportion.

[guitarnutter]

have they ever been more than 40% confident of anything at this time of year for winter?

[The PIT]

Well if they issued a forecast this far out and got it spot on it would be one hell of advance in technology. A week is iffy detail wise.

[SMU]

Afternoon Peoples-

Just back from holidays & am just reading through some of the outputs thats have materialised since ive been away- more especially the UKMO Winter Forecast-

AS hinted at before using an NAO forecast ( Generated by the MAY-SEP SSTSA's) as an insular method to generate a winter forecast is always going to to be difficult ESPECIALLY when the NAO is SO variable in ENSO + years-

There are OTHER parameters that are going to play significantly this winter & its nice to see through reading between the lines that the Meto office have * Potentially* Seen whats round the corner for the UK and given it the acknowledgment it deserves-

Still some 5/6 weeks before the really strong data starts to roll in for the Winter but never the less as the 'Preliminaries' are starting to indicate this Winter should continue where we have left off-...........

Over the next fer weeks I will try to get a confirmation date of the Winter forecast from Myself & Matt Hugo-

Regards

Steve

[Rustynailer]

Still some 5/6 weeks before the really strong data starts to roll in for the Winter but never the less as the 'Preliminaries' are starting to indicate this Winter should continue where we have left off-...........

Regards

Steve

That would be nice, best news i have heard all day.

I respect the fact that you are giving an educated guess this far off, but its nice to hear

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Steve

Big welcome back...rested one trusts? Yes interesting 'mid term' signals and agree we are 'likely' to carry on in same vein from where we left off....

BFTP

[Matty M]

I think this forecast is as good as the metoffice putting up their hands and saying that there is

a 50% chance of a warmer winter and a 50% chance of a below average winter.

In my limited but well studied years of winter watching i have come to the conclusion that it

is impossible yes impossible to look for nothing but slight trends beyond 4 weeks.

And thats coming from an ex lover of long range forecasting.

This year as with every year there is a 50:50 chance of winter temperatures being hotter

or colder.

Its like a the flick of the coin, thats what our weather is, you can get a coin to land on heads

15 times in a row if your very lucky but it likley then you will get it to land on tails for

another series of 15.

[Dawlish]

I think this forecast is as good as the metoffice putting up their hands and saying that there is

a 50% chance of a warmer winter and a 50% chance of a below average winter.

In my limited but well studied years of winter watching i have come to the conclusion that it

is impossible yes impossible to look for nothing but slight trends beyond 4 weeks.

And thats coming from an ex lover of long range forecasting.

This year as with every year there is a 50:50 chance of winter temperatures being hotter

or colder.

Its like a the flick of the coin, thats what our weather is, you can get a coin to land on heads

15 times in a row if your very lucky but it likley then you will get it to land on tails for

another series of 15.

Good point Matty and I agree with you about the 4 weeks idea. I don't think it is 50:50, cold:hot, any more though, compared to the average from past winters.

If we are in a warming trend and we are comparing coming winter temperatures to winters of the past, it is like loading the coin. 50:50 changes to a greater chance of warmer winters; to more like 70:20 and perhaps, in the near future, closer to 80:15.

Paul

Edited September 23, 2006 by Dawlish

[John Cox]

Welcome back Steve (and nice to see u posting again Matty)

An exciting Autumn we have been having and I look forward to an equally exciting Winter.

It seems obvious to me that this winter has an equal chance of being as exciting and I look forward to your prognosis as we near this years exciting season.

Edited September 23, 2006 by John Cox

[Dawlish]

Welcome back Steve (and nice to see u posting again Matty)

An exciting Autumn we have been having and I look forward to an equally exciting Winter.

It seems obvious to me that this winter has an equal chance of being as exciting and I look forward to your prognosis as we near this years exciting season.

Yes, the Met Office feel the same way, John, but I'm not sure that you, nor they, are really taking into account the effects of a 25 year UK warming trend and a 50 year (ish) Global warming trend.

Paul

Edited September 23, 2006 by canadiancoops

[noggin]

I love the hints of coldness in the forecast. Especially as the period in question contains my birthday!

Seriously though, as I have said before (ad infinitum/nauseum) in my humble opinion, Winters for us hit a high, temperature-wise, a couple of years ago and they are now on a downward trend.

regards

heretic

[coldfingers]

After reading a lot of posts on here I am begining to feel a little sorry for the Met Office. It seems for some they can never get it right. If they warn of gales and they aren't as bad as expected then they are castigated, if they don't warn of gales and we get them they fare even worse. These Islands we live in are notoriously difficult to forecast weather for, (possibly second only to Iceland) I think the people at the meto do a really good job, for short range forecast I would choose them above anyone.

[noggin]

I completely agree with you, coldfingers. Unfortunately there is a lot of cynicism around and some people seem to look for things to criticise rather than things to praise.

I like the MetO and find their forecasts to be the most accurate. They do not let emotion or desire cloud their judgement.

[frozen_north]

After reading a lot of posts on here I am begining to feel a little sorry for the Met Office. It seems for some they can never get it right. If they warn of gales and they aren't as bad as expected then they are castigated, if they don't warn of gales and we get them they fare even worse. These Islands we live in are notoriously difficult to forecast weather for, (possibly second only to Iceland) I think the people at the meto do a really good job, for short range forecast I would choose them above anyone.

Too right. The British weather is amazingly complex and has numerous different influences. But even within our shores there can by huge extremes of weather compared to the size of our islands. I'm sure if we lived in somewhere like the azores the met office wouldnt have to work that hard. Oh look its going to be sunny for the next week. But in the UK its a little more complicated.

[Dawlish]

Too right. The British weather is amazingly complex and has numerous different influences. But even within our shores there can by huge extremes of weather compared to the size of our islands. I'm sure if we lived in somewhere like the azores the met office wouldnt have to work that hard. Oh look its going to be sunny for the next week. But in the UK its a little more complicated.

For me, frozen, they are the best in the world and the most experienced, in forecasting our weather in the UK. Pound for pound, over the years, I feel they have been better than the American agencies and they still are.

No-one's perfect, but UKMO do us proud, for a large percentage of the time.

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, the Met Office feel the same way, John, but I'm not sure that you, nor they, are really taking into account the effects of a 25 year UK warming trend and a 50 year (ish) Global warming trend.

Paul

Paul

Yes they are IMO. It was never 50/50 as we live in cool temperate western margin climate...ie DOMINATED by the Atlantic Also warming trend has been for 14000+years Potentially facitious by me but your post IMO will not hold up

BFTP

[John Cox]

I completely agree with you, coldfingers. Unfortunately there is a lot of cynicism around and some people seem to look for things to criticise rather than things to praise.

I like the MetO and find their forecasts to be the most accurate. They do not let emotion or desire cloud their judgement.

Hi noggin,

Like the UK met office our Irish met office are great at calling the weather.

Whilst we at nw last week were trying to call H.Gordon, the irish Met offica called it with a great degree of certainty last Monday.

I just think they have access to information that we dont have. No more no less.

[Dawlish]

Paul

Yes they are IMO. It was never 50/50 as we live in cool temperate western margin climate...ie DOMINATED by the Atlantic Also warming trend has been for 14000+years Potentially facitious by me but your post IMO will not hold up

BFTP

Not facetious in the slightest, BFTP. I'd never disagree with your Geography of the BI and I can't see the Atlantic dominance changing, due to a synoptic pattern change, but it is hard to ignore the warming of the last 25 years, even in the context of interglacial warming (if, indeed, we are actually on the warming limb of an interglacial period; we may be in the cooling limb). The 70:20 ratio of warm to cold has held up very well, for the 16 years since 1990; indeed the actual % of warmer years and months has been above 70% over that period. The warming trend has continued globally and I can't see any good reason why the UK should somehow be an area which will be anomalous to that trend. Hence my view that future winters, including this one, will not be 50:50, warm to cold.

As ever, this would make any future month, or year, 2/7 to be warmer than average, for me, but that still leaves 2 out of every 10 months cooler than the long-term average. (10%ish will be close to average). That should keep the cold wishers fairly happy (this winter could be a colder one, cold-hopers!) but also, it ought to give a lot of fun seeing their desperation, if we see another run of winters like the 9 before last!

Paul

Edited September 23, 2006 by Dawlish