October CET

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm not sure why it was abandoned, probably due to the cost of production and the limited market.

The snow survey in some form used to be part of British Rainfall but was published as an independant journal from 1946, the last issue was in 1983. Unfortunately I only started subscribing in 1976 and have only the last 7 copies.

If anyone has the earlier issues I will pay a handsome price.

Benson isn't listed I'm afraid, Enforcer. The nearest stations are Brize Norton and Shirburne.

As for current records you could always subscribe to Climatological Observers Link ( COL ), Benson isn't in it but there are 3 stations in Oxfordshire, plus the most comprehensive matrix of stations across the British Isles you could wish for.

T.M

Correct!

According to Philip his CET is now on 13.1C as up to and including yesterday http://www.climate-uk.com/

With a very warm night last night (temps no lower than 15C in many places!), and a muggy weekend ahead the CET should still finish somewhere around the 13C mark I'd have thought.

I'm hoping to see the bizarre sight on Philip's graphs of the minimum exceeding the maximum yesterday ... it's possible because many places have had a warmer night than day.

WiB;

Minima and maxima are recorded across the 24hr period standardm which I think is something (apparently) bizarre like 21h-21h. This does have one advantage in that it avoids the general extremes of temperature in the day so that max and min are bounded in a single 24hr period (say 06h was the cut off then a very cold morning in winter would cause a "double whammy", appearing on two days: why does this matter? Monthly average is calculated from the mean of the mean max and mean min; effectively counting one event twice would skew this measure).

The minimum cannot be higher than the maximum, though I know what you mean. I have recorded days when the maximum occurred overnight; the fact that it was overnight does not stop it being the daily max though.

[osmposm]

The snow survey in some form used to be part of British Rainfall but was published as an independant journal from 1946, the last issue was in 1983. Unfortunately I only started subscribing in 1976 and have only the last 7 copies.

If anyone has the earlier issues I will pay a handsome price.

I'm thoroughly confused, TM. If you've only got it from 1976-83 (actually, isn't that's eight, not seven?), how were you able to give us the stats for 51-52 & 52-53?

[West is Best]

Stratos thank you. One learns something every day. Interesting!

13.1C still with Philip: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

Can't really see now why 13C may not be held, at least on Philip's Manley CET.

[Terminal Moraine]

I'm thoroughly confused, TM. If you've only got it from 1976-83 (actually, isn't that's eight, not seven?), how were you able to give us the stats for 51-52 & 52-53?

Your confusion is easily clarified, Osmposm. At the beginning of each issue is a table of selected stations giving the number of days with sleet/snow falling and snow lying back to 1946/47.

I should have stated that I have each issue back to 1976/77, rather than just 1976, hence the 7 copies.

T.M

[Terminal Moraine]

Correct!

WiB;

Minima and maxima are recorded across the 24hr period standardm which I think is something (apparently) bizarre like 21h-21h. This does have one advantage in that it avoids the general extremes of temperature in the day so that max and min are bounded in a single 24hr period (say 06h was the cut off then a very cold morning in winter would cause a "double whammy", appearing on two days: why does this matter? Monthly average is calculated from the mean of the mean max and mean min; effectively counting one event twice would skew this measure).

The minimum cannot be higher than the maximum, though I know what you mean. I have recorded days when the maximum occurred overnight; the fact that it was overnight does not stop it being the daily max though.

The standard day is acutually 0900-0900 g.m.t for temperature and rainfall. Even this results in some low winter minima being duplicated as the lowest temp at that time of year can easily occur around 0800 or later.

There are also other strange effects such as rain falling during the first 9 hours of the first day of a month will be accredited to the last day of the previous month. None of this is a problem if everyone sticks to the same hours of reading but this is not always possible for amateur observers and can lead to some anomalous readings.

Just to confuse things even more, parameters such as thunder, fog, snow and sleet, gales etc are recorded within the calendar day, ie midnight to midnight.

It's a minefield out there and this is way off the October CET topic.

T.M

Edited October 27, 2006 by Terminal Moraine

[Stratos Ferric]

The standard day is acutually 0900-0900 g.m.t for temperature and rainfall. Even this results in some low winter minima being duplicated as the lowest temp at that time of year can easily occur around 0800 or later.

There are also other strange effects such as rain falling during the first 9 hours of the first day of a month will be accredited to the last day of the previous month. None of this is a problem if everyone sticks to the same hours of reading but this is not always possible for amateur observers and can lead to some anomalous readings.

Just to confuse things even more, parameters such as thunder, fog, snow and sleet, gales etc are recorded within the calendar day, ie midnight to midnight.

It's a minefield out there and this is way off the October CET topic.

T.M

Tx for the correction.

[ukmoose]

Yep 12.9 is my call...looking good

Moose

Sorry Mods for being off topic here but I'm a little puzzled. Unless I had too much wine and can't remember it, I didn't make this post gloating about how close my October CET call might be. I don't do that.

Can any one explain how someone could have impersonated me to add this comment????

Thanks

:o :o :o Moose

[johnholmes]

Mean temp for this month so far is 13.0C, some 2.5C above the long term average. Yet another plus temperature month the 7th consecutive one this year.

John

[ukmoose]

Mean temp for this month so far is 13.0C, some 2.5C above the long term average. Yet another plus temperature month the 7th consecutive one this year.

John

Worryingly, I think, it's not just the fact that so many months are now above the long term average, but it's how far above they are. 2.5 C is an awfully long way above the average. How far above were the other 7 months, John?

Moose

[Roger J Smith]

Hey, this thread is in danger of dropping off page one (!!) ... assuming the CET is sitting at 12.8 right now, I would need the 31st to average -46 C to get to 10.9 as predicted.

A few others would need the sun to go dark, and then some.

But here's a fascinating factoid -- it's clear and quite cold where I live near Vancouver, and this morning (30th) the record low which was almost tied was -3 in 1946.

[Scorcher]

According to climate-uk.com, the CET is still at 13C. I'm surprised by this as I thought that the warm day yesterday with many places in the CET zone reaching 17 or 18C would be enough to produce a slight rise. The past couple of days as a whole have been well above average by day and night within the CET zone.

[West is Best]

According to climate-uk.com, the CET is still at 13C. I'm surprised by this as I thought that the warm day yesterday with many places in the CET zone reaching 17 or 18C would be enough to produce a slight rise. The past couple of days as a whole have been well above average by day and night within the CET zone.

Hi Scorcher. Although it didn't register, Philip's site actually dropped .05C on Sunday, and then rose .05C on Monday. On Sunday the figure was rounded up from 12.95 to 13C under the stats rounding rule.

I agree with you though, I'm slightly surprised given Sunday's record-breaker. It will be very interesting to see if the official Met O CET figure is above Philip's, and if so by how much. If Philip's around I'd love to know what he reckons it will be on his emulation! Philip's CET should be pretty certain for 13C anyway.

Edited October 31, 2006 by West is Best

[reef]

Hi Scorcher. Although it didn't register, Philip's site actually dropped .05C on Sunday, and then rose .05C on Monday. On Sunday the figure was rounded up from 12.95 to 13C under the stats rounding rule.

I agree with you though, I'm slightly surprised given Sunday's record-breaker. It will be very interesting to see if the official Met O CET figure is above Philip's, and if so by how much. If Philip's around I'd love to know what he reckons it will be on his emulation! Philip's CET should be pretty certain for 13C anyway.

The warmth really was limited to the far south though. I know here the temperature didnt exceed 15°C, bear in mind the CET zone uses readings from various areas.

[Weather-history]

Warmest September/October combinations

2006 could possibly be 14.85

2005: 14.15

1949: 14.0

1795: 13.85

1731: 13.8

1959: 13.75

1921/1969: 13.45

1729: 13.35

1995: 13.3

[Nick H]

The warmth really was limited to the far south though. I know here the temperature didnt exceed 15°C, bear in mind the CET zone uses readings from various areas.

Funny that because the Vale of York recorded 19C (Church Fenton, nr Selby and Linton-on-Ouse, nr York). You must be high up. The warmth was apparent from Yorkshire, Herefordshire (20C) and Greater London (17C).

This is the second year running where we've reached 20C at the end of October - quite remarkable really.

Edited October 31, 2006 by Nick H

[Anti-Mild]

All I can say is is that I'm glad the CET league table doesn't start until November. My punt for October was 11.2 !

[johnholmes]

got 18.9C here yesterday, not sure if that is one of the highest for 30 October for this area. Will check later today.

John

[Thundery wintry showers]

The standard day is acutually 0900-0900 g.m.t for temperature and rainfall. Even this results in some low winter minima being duplicated as the lowest temp at that time of year can easily occur around 0800 or later.

There are also other strange effects such as rain falling during the first 9 hours of the first day of a month will be accredited to the last day of the previous month. None of this is a problem if everyone sticks to the same hours of reading but this is not always possible for amateur observers and can lead to some anomalous readings.

Just to confuse things even more, parameters such as thunder, fog, snow and sleet, gales etc are recorded within the calendar day, ie midnight to midnight.

It's a minefield out there and this is way off the October CET topic.

T.M

I must have guessed right then- that's exactly how my weather records archive is tabulated! Having an AWS is certainly of assistance for taking readings at 0900, though- I remember having to make educated guesses for earlier years.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

All I can say is is that I'm glad the CET league table doesn't start until November. My punt for October was 11.2 !

My actual mean temperature is 10.8º up till now.

[reef]

Funny that because the Vale of York recorded 19C (Church Fenton, nr Selby and Linton-on-Ouse, nr York). You must be high up. The warmth was apparent from Yorkshire, Herefordshire (20C) and Greater London (17C).

This is the second year running where we've reached 20C at the end of October - quite remarkable really.

Im actually 3 metres ASL

Bear in mind here I am only 9 miles from the North Sea coast, temperatures in the Vale of York and further inland are always much different. My point was just to illustrate that just because one CET site recorded a high temperature doesnt mean the rest did.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Worryingly, I think, it's not just the fact that so many months are now above the long term average, but it's how far above they are. 2.5 C is an awfully long way above the average. How far above were the other 7 months, John?

Moose

I'm not John, but here's the CET values and anomalies compared to 1971-2000:

January: 4.3 (+0.1)

February: 3.9 (-0.3)

March: 4.9 (-1.4)

April: 8.6 (+0.5)

May: 12.0 (+0.7)

June: 15.9 (+1.

July: 19.7 (+3.2)

August: 16.1C (-0.1)

September: 16.6C (+2.9)

October (provisional): 13.0C (+2.6)

Some of those values are arguable, e.g. I might have got a decimal place wrong, and there are differences between Manley and Hadley values, but the general trend is clear.

At Cleadon, only March has been below either the 1961-90 or 1971-2000 average, though it was 1.0C below 61-90 and 1.5C below 71-00. Even August was above the average for both reference periods, though entirely because of warm nights.

[ukmoose]

I'm not John, but here's the CET values and anomalies compared to 1971-2000:

January: 4.3 (+0.1)

February: 3.9 (-0.3)

March: 4.9 (-1.4)

April: 8.6 (+0.5)

May: 12.0 (+0.7)

June: 15.9 (+1.

July: 19.7 (+3.2)

August: 16.1C (-0.1)

September: 16.6C (+2.9)

October (provisional): 13.0C (+2.6)

Some of those values are arguable, e.g. I might have got a decimal place wrong, and there are differences between Manley and Hadley values, but the general trend is clear.

At Cleadon, only March has been below either the 1961-90 or 1971-2000 average, though it was 1.0C below 61-90 and 1.5C below 71-00. Even August was above the average for both reference periods, though entirely because of warm nights.

Thanks for your reply TWS - a worrying picture don't you think?

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

All I can say is is that I'm glad the CET league table doesn't start until November. My punt for October was 11.2 :blink: !

Do you know something we don't?

[Scorcher]

The warmth really was limited to the far south though. I know here the temperature didnt exceed 15°C, bear in mind the CET zone uses readings from various areas.

Liverpool Airport reached 19C, Manchester reached 18C and several places in the Yorkshire area did as have been mentioned as well as the warmth in the south.

[paul tall]

Thanks for your reply TWS - a worrying picture don't you think?

Moose

I can't see a problem with summer and autumn months being 2-3ºC above average, and January-March being average or below. More continental, and suits me fine. Saves me moving to Poland anyway.

Lets see what November - March bring before we become merchants of doom.

Remember GW was invented by, and is constantly touted by the Met Office, because they want some more money or something.