October CET

[ukmoose]

1951 and 1952 are however getting quite similar in magnitude and probably our best comparables in SSTs. 1951 in particular has many similarities and would serve quite nicely as an analogue:

A cold night today, followed by a wet and chilly tomorrow - come on CET, drop down to 12.9

Yep 12.9 is my call...looking good

Moose

[summer blizzard]

1951 and 1952 are very good matches from a sea surface temperature anomoly setup and are anologues for one teleconnection each for the August-September period, i suspect that they are good enougth anologues to survive October and be included in my winter forecast as well.

[Anti-Mild]

1951 and 1952 are very good matches from a sea surface temperature anomoly setup and are anologues for one teleconnection each for the August-September period, i suspect that they are good enougth anologues to survive October and be included in my winter forecast as well.

When you releasing your winter forecast SB?

[summer blizzard]

My anologue based winter forecast will be released once all anologue data becomes available, so sometime in mid-November followed by my teleconnections winter forecast near the end of December.

[Terminal Moraine]

Except that the Arctic is about 20C cooler then than now! Staggering. Out of interest, what happened that winter.

The central England temp' and rainfall for those years were as follows; Dec' -Feb' in each case

1951/52.... 5.5....2.7.....3.4c...........96.4.........86.9...........25.8mm

1952/53.....2.8....3.3.....4.3c...........88.0.........31.8...........50.5mm.

I haven't had time to trawl the records to see how snowy the winters were but looking at the bare statistics you'd think that Jan 1952 and December 1952 must have had a reasonable amount of snow.

T.M

[Stratos Ferric]

The central England temp' and rainfall for those years were as follows; Dec' -Feb' in each case

1951/52.... 5.5....2.7.....3.4c...........96.4.........86.9...........25.8mm

1952/53.....2.8....3.3.....4.3c...........88.0.........31.8...........50.5mm.

I haven't had time to trawl the records to see how snowy the winters were but looking at the bare statistics you'd think that Jan 1952 and December 1952 must have had a reasonable amount of snow.

T.M

Tx TM. Have to say though, that the extra Atlantic warmth, and the oven that once was the Arctic, suggest that however snowy the winters of 51-53 were, we won't match it this time.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that the winters of 1951-52 and 1952-53 were average snowwise. Jan 1952 was a polar maritime NW'ly month; very sunny with frequent snow in northern areas and further south at times. The first half of Feb was much the same, although it was anticyclonic later on.

Dec 1952 was a cold month with fog early and heavy snowfalls around mid-month, and milder towards Christmas, and colder again at the end. Jan 1953 was a dry anticyclonic month and rather cold with frequent fogs however there was a cold spell early on with some snow in parts. Feb 1953 had a cold first half with frequent northerlies and was quite snowy in a number of areas but the second half saw mild SW'lies.

The winters of 51-52 and 52-53 were overall quite cold by today's standards with close to average snowfall but certainly far from severe. 53-54 was also pretty cold in Jan and Feb with some good cold, snowy spells and 54-55 and 55-56 saw prolonged severely cold spells - a reasonable decade for cold wintry weather were the 1950s.

[Southman]

Here in Sicily Summer time seems never ends. Today 34C, tomorrow about 30C. I'm waiting for december comes.

Edited October 25, 2006 by Southman

[osmposm]

I haven't had time to trawl the records to see how snowy the winters were but looking at the bare statistics you'd think that Jan 1952 and December 1952 must have had a reasonable amount of snow.

Bonacina apparently records significant snow thus:

52: January - "V snowy" Scotland & Ulster. End Jan (& Feb?) - Scotland, N England & N Wales. End March - 12" South Mids, Cotswolds & Chilterns.

52-53: Late November - 1ft ("drifts 30ft" ?!) Wales & S Mids. 3rd week Dec - W Scotland, NW England & N Wales. 2nd week Feb - N England & N Wales

Plenty up north, it seems, but not a lot in the south in either winter. The subsequent two winters were much more widely snowy.

All this from http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html

Edited October 25, 2006 by osmposm

[Roger J Smith]

The winter of 1952-53 could be considered a killer winter, if you count the London smog episode in December and the severe windstorm and coastal flooding of 31 January.

By the way, it was a very mild winter in eastern North America, recalled for the least snow ever seen in some parts of the Great Lakes region.

[Terminal Moraine]

Having dug out my copies of the inimitable and much missed, 'Snow Survey of Great Britain', here's a list of days with sleet/snow falling and snow lying at 0900 for a selection of stations in the winters of 1951/52 and 1952/53

...................... 1951/52...........................1952/53

Braemar............61/52................................51/61

Eskdalemuir.......45/41................................44/32

Huddersfield.......37/22...............................25/11

Buxton...............38/38...............................32/25

Woburn..............20/7.................................26/25

Exeter................13/1.................................10/2

Lake Vyrnwy.......40/30...............................34/32

Boscombe Down..22/8.................................23/4

For the geographically challenged the following notes may be helpful.

Braemar is in the Grampain region of Scotland at an altitude of about 330m.

Eskdalemuir is in Dumfries and Galloway, altitude 242m.

The station at Huddersfield is at Oakes just outside the town, altitude 232 m

Buxton is in the Peak District of Derbyshire, altitude 307 m

Woburn is in Bedfordshire, altitude, 89m

Boscombe Down is in Wiltshire, altitude, 126m

Lake Vyrnwy is in north Powys, altitude, 303m

Exeter is in Devon ( Dawlish country ) altitude, 32m

T.M

Edited October 25, 2006 by Terminal Moraine

[Weather-history]

The second half of December 1951 was mild and the mildest period for winter 1951-52. The coldest period was the second half of January 1952 and this spilt over into February.

As for the winter of 1952-53. The period mid November to mid December was particularly cold, it had a CET of about 1.75

Oddly, the first halves of December, January and February were colder than the second halves of those months. The second half of February 1953 was particularly mild.

[West is Best]

According to Philip his CET is now on 13.1C as up to and including yesterday http://www.climate-uk.com/

With a very warm night last night (temps no lower than 15C in many places!), and a muggy weekend ahead the CET should still finish somewhere around the 13C mark I'd have thought.

I'm hoping to see the bizarre sight on Philip's graphs of the minimum exceeding the maximum yesterday ... it's possible because many places have had a warmer night than day.

Edited October 26, 2006 by West is Best

[Scorcher]

According to Philip his CET is now on 13.1C as up to and including yesterday http://www.climate-uk.com/

With a very warm night last night (temps no lower than 15C in many places!), and a muggy weekend ahead the CET should still finish somewhere around the 13C mark I'd have thought.

I'm hoping to see the bizarre sight on Philip's graphs of the minimum exceeding the maximum yesterday ... it's possible because many places have had a warmer night than day.

Doesn't the night time temperature still count as the maximum if it's the warmest of that particular date?

[West is Best]

Doesn't the night time temperature still count as the maximum if it's the warmest of that particular date?

Erm, pass (one for Kevin!). But on the graphs the bottom line would overlap the top line: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

I think I've seen it happen once before, but can't fully recall.

[The PIT]

Doesn't the night time temperature still count as the maximum if it's the warmest of that particular date?

Yes.

[Scorcher]

Yes.

I thought so, I suppose it's happened many times in the past.

[West is Best]

Yes.

I think this needs some clarification ... for the purposes of the CET I think I'm right in saying that two readings are taken in every 24 hour period. For the purposes of the maximum temp on the Met Office reading it's the highest temp in any 24 hour period. These are not the same thing. The point is that on the CET chart Philip posts the 'minimum' graph may actually cross the 'maximum' graph I do believe ... not sure I've seen that happen before but I may have.

[The Enforcer]

Having dug out my copies of the inimitable and much missed, 'Snow Survey of Great Britain', here's a list of days with sleet/snow falling and snow lying at 0900 for a selection of stations in the winters of 1951/52 and 1952/53

This suggests it's no longer maintained. Not enough snow to record nowadays? What period do the records cover? Would you be able to tell me whether there are any records for Benson and if so, point me in the direction of where I could view them? Ta.

[Weather-history]

Its definitely going to be the warmest September/October combination on record, it just a matter of how high it is.

Sept/Oct 2005: 14.15

[ukmoose]

Erm, pass (one for Kevin!). But on the graphs the bottom line would overlap the top line: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

I think I've seen it happen once before, but can't fully recall.

Actually WIB, it's reasonably common for night time temperatures to exceed day time temperatures, especially in winter when a cold spell ends overnight. I can recall below freezing temperatures during the day being ended abruptly over night with temperatures rising by as much as 10 or 11 degrees.

In any 24 hour period, the maximum and minimum temperature could be at any time during that period regardless of day or night.

Moose

[West is Best]

Yes you're quite right Moose. Silly me.

Remarkably warm today. We've almost touched 20C I think in places, which a day earlier or a day later (if you see what I mean) would be touching date records. Records aside, extremely mild.

[Snowly does it]

Yes you're quite right Moose. Silly me.

Remarkably warm today. We've almost touched 20C I think in places, which a day earlier or a day later (if you see what I mean) would be touching date records. Records aside, extremely mild.

Agreed WiB, a really warm morning here, it is tailing off now and has plummeted into the 12s fairly rapidly but extremely warm.

As for October, I'd say little chance of the record, some hope for 13 plus but I am doubtful now.

Edited October 26, 2006 by snowmaiden

[Terminal Moraine]

This suggests it's no longer maintained. Not enough snow to record nowadays? What period do the records cover? Would you be able to tell me whether there are any records for Benson and if so, point me in the direction of where I could view them? Ta.

I'm not sure why it was abandoned, probably due to the cost of production and the limited market.

The snow survey in some form used to be part of British Rainfall but was published as an independant journal from 1946, the last issue was in 1983. Unfortunately I only started subscribing in 1976 and have only the last 7 copies.

If anyone has the earlier issues I will pay a handsome price.

Benson isn't listed I'm afraid, Enforcer. The nearest stations are Brize Norton and Shirburne.

As for current records you could always subscribe to Climatological Observers Link ( COL ), Benson isn't in it but there are 3 stations in Oxfordshire, plus the most comprehensive matrix of stations across the British Isles you could wish for.

T.M

[The Enforcer]

I'm not sure why it was abandoned, probably due to the cost of production and the limited market.

The snow survey in some form used to be part of British Rainfall but was published as an independant journal from 1946, the last issue was in 1983. Unfortunately I only started subscribing in 1976 and have only the last 7 copies.

If anyone has the earlier issues I will pay a handsome price.

Benson isn't listed I'm afraid, Enforcer. The nearest stations are Brize Norton and Shirburne.

As for current records you could always subscribe to Climatological Observers Link ( COL ), Benson isn't in it but there are 3 stations in Oxfordshire, plus the most comprehensive matrix of stations across the British Isles you could wish for.

T.M

All that data missed out on. Thanks.