October CET

[johnholmes]

come on folks, its pretty obvious that if we all accept what PD tells us is correct then the world will be all lovely.

Use the ignore button.

jh

[summer blizzard]

After looking at the dat and assuming that there is no large change, the average daily CET from now until the end of the month looks to be between 12.5C and 13C.

Could somebody post the daily CET needed to reach the monthly values???

Edited October 21, 2006 by summer blizzard

[Dawlish]

come on folks, its pretty obvious that if we all accept what PD tells us is correct then the world will be all lovely.

Use the ignore button.

jh

Use what you like Paul. Language is a wonderful thing, but it doesnt make sense. Global Warming UK. UK Global Warming. Are were at the centre of the warming or something, or have I missed it.

The only sense would be if it were a club or some sort, or term used to create some sort of, I dont know, annoyance amoungst other members.

Or perhaps i'm wrong.

Just to clarify, the UK is a country, the globe is the world. Hence why its called global warming, and it is the world that it warming. But hey, perhaps i'm being picky.

Calm down and read it again. I think you missed the odd paragraph. Take John's advice if you don't like something, or somebody. Mind you, I tried to ignore myself and it didn't work! <_<

Paul

PS The world will be warmer John, not lovelier......and it will be!

Edited October 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[Scorcher]

We should see another small rise in the CET today. It's currently at 13.5C but last night was another very mild one and temperatures today have reached 17-18C quite widely across England.

[Stratos Ferric]

The whole point of using 71-00 SF was to keep the comparison on a constant.

I never did the spread sheet to show a crumb of comfort, but just as a comparison of what happens with warmer Octobers.

For me, just comparing the 3 months of data will always miss out points. Hence why I included every month during the winter period.

Of course, shift the base line, and the end result will vary. How ever, some of the individual months will still give negative and positive results.

The point being that, whatever base line you use, you will still get negative and positive results.

All i've stated is that a warm October does not mean anything, and that the winter can go either way. The results are there for others to make their mind up, and I have never deviated from the fact of which average CET i've been using (so I wouldnt call it misleading - I can use another baselien if you wish, I was just using the latest).

Statistics are always up for analysis and criticism, but was just trying to show something of interest.

Chris,

Don't get me wrong, I wasn't taking a pot at you (struth, people on here have tissue paper skin!). However, using 1971-00 as a constant baseline skews selection of Octobers to the more recent simply because the climate is undeniably warming.

My point was actually more ref earlier comments regarding anomalous warmth, which is best viewed in the context of climate at the time.

Winters can go either way, but just make sure that in the method of selecting your sub-sample you don't inadvertently induce another skew. I'm sure that if I did a dissection of the years I selected there would be, as I clearly inferred, a mix of warm and cold; it'sjust that there is nothing exceptional in there.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I use the term that best describes the situation.

because of the obvious nature of the Global Warming trend. It isn't linear in either a spatial, or a temporal way. Because of its spatial non-linearity, different areas respond to the GW trend in different ways.

Paul

Ha ha I like that, it explains it all to me

BFTP

Edited October 21, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith]

Signs of retrogression of the European high late in the month, although at a rather low latitude so that the UK remains in a westerly flow; expect this to lead to a swelling of high pressure around 20-30 W in early November, so currently thinking that the first significant cold spell may arrive in the time frame of 2-7 November. That's about all it may last too, as I expect this retrogression to speed up and cause the temporary shift to a NW or N flow to return to milder WSW afterwards.

This winter could have one similarity to last winter in this way -- synoptics for colder weather will not be absent, and there will be some hope of wintry conditions setting in, but once again, whether these synoptics (a large blocking high likely for January) can overcome the rather obvious modern tendencies that seem anchored in higher SSTs and possibly the greenhouse gas component, remains to be seen.

All I can say is that such factors have not (yet) removed the potential for other regions to see "old-fashioned" winters so perhaps Britain's (and Ireland's) luck (good or bad, depending on what you want, I suppose) might run out this winter. However, the North Sea is bound to be at a very high temperature after all these well above normal months, it's hard to see how it would cool down below 12 C before New Years especially if December proves to be mild. That's a very large body of water at a very inhibiting temperature for all but the strongest and most direct easterlies to get the job done. But if they do, of course, it would be massive.

[Thundersquall]

Assuming the October CET remains roughly what it is now, the May to October monthly average is:

(12.6+16.8+20.05+15.95+16.54+13.23) / 6 = 15.86c.

The average May to October figure should be: (11.3+14.1+16.5+16.2+13.7+10.4) / 6 = 13.7c.

In other words the so-called extended Summer is around 2.16c warmer than average which is a record I believe.

Edited October 21, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Weather-history]

Chris,

However, using 1971-00 as a constant baseline skews selection of Octobers to the more recent simply because the climate is undeniably warming.

However, the 1971-2000 October average is actually lower than the 1961-90 October average by 0.2C, so your point sought of falls flat on its face.

[Stratos Ferric]

However, the 1971-2000 October average is actually lower than the 1961-90 October average by 0.2C, so your point sought of falls flat on its face.

Is that as in "sort of"- very creative spelling there. My point doesn't fall flat on it's face at all, in fact the point you raise makes my point more eloquently. That is precisely the reason why I tested each October against its own set of thirty years prior. Each is then judged not absolutely (which introduces a skew in line with climatic drift w.r.t the reference period chosen) but in the context of what, staistically, the norm was for the time.

Sitting where we are now earlier Octobers are bound to be excluded becuause the climate overall was about 1C cooler. As the data I produced shows, however, there have been Octobers which at the time they occurred were more exceptional than this one looks like being.

In the same way the cold of Feb-March this last winter was not extremely cold compared with intervals even as recently as the 80s, but in the context of what we now have as a norm it was very cold. Hence the "even larger teapot" I'm afraid.

[West is Best]

Still 13.5C on Philip's site up to and including Oct 22nd, and I can't see too much evidence of it being pegged back at the moment. http://www.climate-uk.com/

Edited October 23, 2006 by West is Best

[Roger J Smith]

I agree, WIB, hard to see how the CET falls below 13.0 before the end of the month now, each day from 23rd to 31st looks to be in the range 10-14 so assuming 12 as a mean, it won't fall more than a few tenths by then. Three months out of four up near the top, quite a landmark whether natural or otherwise. Will November make it four out of five -- can't imagine too many people being surprised at this point.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree, WIB, hard to see how the CET falls below 13.0 before the end of the month now, each day from 23rd to 31st looks to be in the range 10-14 so assuming 12 as a mean, it won't fall more than a few tenths by then. Three months out of four up near the top, quite a landmark whether natural or otherwise. Will November make it four out of five -- can't imagine too many people being surprised at this point.

I think an overall continuation of above average but about or just sub 8C. What about you Roger?

BFTP

[The Enforcer]

All I can say is that such factors have not (yet) removed the potential for other regions to see "old-fashioned" winters so perhaps Britain's (and Ireland's) luck (good or bad, depending on what you want, I suppose) might run out this winter. However, the North Sea is bound to be at a very high temperature after all these well above normal months, it's hard to see how it would cool down below 12 C before New Years especially if December proves to be mild. That's a very large body of water at a very inhibiting temperature for all but the strongest and most direct easterlies to get the job done. But if they do, of course, it would be massive.

I tend to share JH's view that Summers/Autumns don't really matter too much, but the impact on sea temperature around the UK is a valid point. Are there any examples (recent or otherwise) of the sea around the UK being anomalously very warm in late autumn/early winter and a cold winter/cold winter month (relative to that period) still occuring?

[Weather-history]

Are there any examples (recent or otherwise) of the sea around the UK being anomalously very warm in late autumn/early winter and a cold winter/cold winter month (relative to that period) still occuring?

Maybe December 1995?

The summer was a scorcher, October was very mild, November was largely mild then came that cold December and there was an easterly during that first week and a pretty cold one at that. It was a pretty easterly December

Edited October 23, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Glacier Point]

I tend to share JH's view that Summers/Autumns don't really matter too much, but the impact on sea temperature around the UK is a valid point. Are there any examples (recent or otherwise) of the sea around the UK being anomalously very warm in late autumn/early winter and a cold winter/cold winter month (relative to that period) still occuring?

the 1940 - 1960 period did see anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic and that didn't seem to stop those winters from being quite nifty. We are however in a totally different league in respect of the magnitude of this warmth.

Edited October 23, 2006 by Glacier Point

[su rui ke]

Still 13.5C on Philip's site up to and including Oct 22nd, and I can't see too much evidence of it being pegged back at the moment.

It's actually down to 13.3C now (up to an including the 23rd). Temperatures look all over the place this week and the GFS forecast temperatures for any particular day are changing by a lot from run to run. However, the overall amount of 'mild' and 'cold' for the next few days is staying roughly constant and it looks like the CET will be down to around 12.9/13.0 by the 28th. If the last 3 days of the month are as mild as currently forecast that will then push the CET back to within a whisker of equalling the record by the 31st. Another exciting end to the month as far as the CET goes!

[Dawlish]

Hi su rui ke,

Exciting mild! Many would find that a terminally unpalatable oxymoron! True though. Like you seem to do, I too excited when a record is threatened, warm, or cold. I just don't get any cold ones to get excited about!

Paul

[su rui ke]

Hi su rui ke,

Exciting mild! Many would find that a terminally unpalatable oxymoron! True though. Like you seem to do, I too excited when a record is threatened, warm, or cold. I just don't get any cold ones to get excited about!

Paul

Well, I didn't say that exactly! I actually enjoy most types of cold weather, whether it's over here or back in the UK. However, for the second month in a row - and for the third month out of the last four four(!) - the 'warmest on record' monthly CET looks seriously under threat. I just don't think that should be ignored!

By the way, does anyone know if the date records for the 29th and 31st given on the TORRO site are up to date. At 19.2C and 19.4C, respectively, they're looking shaky too if things go according to plan at the end of the week!

Edited October 24, 2006 by su rui ke

[Thundery wintry showers]

I tend to share JH's view that Summers/Autumns don't really matter too much, but the impact on sea temperature around the UK is a valid point. Are there any examples (recent or otherwise) of the sea around the UK being anomalously very warm in late autumn/early winter and a cold winter/cold winter month (relative to that period) still occuring?

As Mr D said, 1995 is a good possibility. I remember thundery showers of hail, sleet and snow on 17 November 1995, suggesting a big contrast between cold air and warm sea.

2001 may also be a good example- record-breaking October and mild November, but with a cold snap on the 8th/9th that again brought thundery hail/sleet/snow showers. Then December, though not as cold as 1995, was rather cold.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yeah Dec 1995 was a pretty cold month here with an average I believe of about 3.35C here with numerous easterlies a brief dusting of snow 7/8th and some finely balanced conditions after mid-month for rain/snow and as we know bitter conditions in Scotland around Xmas and after but even then SST's must have been colder than what they are now days and those synoptics back in early December would have brought rain as opposed to snow nowdays!

[Stratos Ferric]

the 1940 - 1960 period did see anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic and that didn't seem to stop those winters from being quite nifty. We are however in a totally different league in respect of the magnitude of this warmth.

GP,

I'm sure that across twenty years there's a lot of averaging going on, and in any case I'd be failry sure that a lot of that table is based on derived analysis as the sensing network was far more sparse than is the case today. All of that said the anomaly in your chart looks to be around 0.25C on average. Today 1-2C (and more) is more like it. As you say, we're in a a different order of magnitude just now.

Hi su rui ke,

Exciting mild! Many would find that a terminally unpalatable oxymoron! True though. Like you seem to do, I too excited when a record is threatened, warm, or cold. I just don't get any cold ones to get excited about!

Paul

Come on Paul, name names! I can't think of anybody on here who would find that juxtaposition unpalatable. Oops, there goes the end of my tongue (again)...

[Glacier Point]

GP,

I'm sure that across twenty years there's a lot of averaging going on, and in any case I'd be failry sure that a lot of that table is based on derived analysis as the sensing network was far more sparse than is the case today. All of that said the anomaly in your chart looks to be around 0.25C on average. Today 1-2C (and more) is more like it. As you say, we're in a a different order of magnitude just now.

Come on Paul, name names! I can't think of anybody on here who would find that juxtaposition unpalatable. Oops, there goes the end of my tongue (again)...

1951 and 1952 are however getting quite similar in magnitude and probably our best comparables in SSTs. 1951 in particular has many similarities and would serve quite nicely as an analogue:

A cold night today, followed by a wet and chilly tomorrow - come on CET, drop down to 12.9

Edited October 24, 2006 by Glacier Point

[Stratos Ferric]

1951 and 1952 are however getting quite similar in magnitude and probably our best comparables in SSTs. 1951 in particular has many similarities and would serve quite nicely as an analogue:

Except that the Arctic is about 20C cooler then than now! Staggering. Out of interest, what happened that winter.

[Glacier Point]

Except that the Arctic is about 20C cooler then than now! Staggering. Out of interest, what happened that winter.

Ironically, the year with the warmer Arctic was the colder for western Europe: