October CET

[Nick H]

The question is, how come October 1921 isn't the warmest on record after a week like that? That's an incredible sequence for so late in the year. It must have taken something quite cool in the second half to make the month as a whole cooler than 2001 and 2005 were.

Mid-month was quite cool in October 1921, yet it's the 4th warmest on recorded and the sunniest ever October.

[Weather-history]

The question is, how come October 1921 isn't the warmest on record after a week like that?

It was its just been superceded by Octobers 1969, 1995, 2001 and 2005 since then. Until October 1969, it was the warmest October on record

[West is Best]

Philip's CET is currently on 13.3C. http://www.climate-uk.com/

I was trying to see what October needs to hit for the UK to have experienced the warmest ever 6 month period? I'm assuming that record is very likely to fall, but I need to trawl through 350 years of data! Where's Mr Data?!

Edited October 14, 2006 by West is Best

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

My mean temp here in the North East so far this month is 13.13c currently +2.78c above average

Nigel

[su rui ke]

Philip's CET is currently on 13.3C. http://www.climate-uk.com/

I was trying to see what October needs to hit for the UK to have experienced the warmest ever 6 month period? I'm assuming that record is very likely to fall, but I need to trawl through 350 years of data! Where's Mr Data?!

Hi West,

I think it's May-October 1995 with an average of 15.04C. By my calculations we need an October CET of 9.01 to beat that.

[Weather-history]

I was trying to see what October needs to hit for the UK to have experienced the warmest ever 6 month period? I'm assuming that record is very likely to fall, but I need to trawl through 350 years of data! Where's Mr Data?!

May to October 1995 had a CET average of 15.05, an October CET of 9.5 would equal it

[West is Best]

May to October 1995 had a CET average of 15.05, an October CET of 9.5 would equal it

Thanks Kevin and Su Rui Ke. So with the CET currently on or around 13.3C that's really pretty likely. It would take the cold snap at the end of next week to be really dramatic for this not to be the warmest 6 months ever recorded in the CET zone. Having said that, too early to count chickens. The weather has a habit of not following a script!

Edited October 14, 2006 by West is Best

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

May to October 1995 had a CET average of 15.05, an October CET of 9.5 would equal it

Thats just taken me ages to work out

Was 1959 the second warmest Kevin? 15.00?

Richard - At this point, I certainly cant see it not being the warmest M-O period. I dont think it will remain as high as it is (taking into account the latest trend + we are in a declining month), but still.

If it did stay the same, we would have a CET for M-O of 15.68. Now that would be amazing.

Still...if it turns out to be an average month (which would be one contrasting month), we would still be around 15.2 for the period. Quite a jump really, which was also similar I think between other old records of 1949 (14.78) to 1959 (15.00).

[stormchaser1]

Morning again everyone

I apologise if this is in the wrong thread]

According to my stats [here in the North East] my stats are showing me that so far this October is the warmest the North East has seen [ my stats go back to 1997] The previous warmest October was back in 2002 , where the North East saw a mean temp of 12.75c. Looking at the charts this morning personally i feel that we in the North East could see a final figure between 11.5c and 12.75c, currently my mean is 13.13c so im going to opt for a final mean of around 12.6c which would be just below 2002s final figure

Hope ive made some sense

nigel

[kold weather]

It's all still resting on exactly the set-up that we see in the second half of the month. The first half so far has been very warm indeed compared to average, though not a patch on October 1921, which ended up being the 4th warmest ever with a CEt of 12.8C, a drop of about 3.5C during the second half.

Now of course much depends on just how cold the second half of this month but while extreme, 2-3C drop in the CET is quite possible in the second half IF the colder option comes off, but either way this month will not be record breaking like a few of the last.

[Weather-history]

Thats just taken me ages to work out

Was 1959 the second warmest Kevin? 15.00?

Nope, it is 1947 with 15.02C

1959 is 3rd with 15

Edited October 14, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Nope, it is 1947 with 15.02C

1959 is 3rd with 15

Bugger. Missed that one. Was working off high CET for the years total.

[Weather-history]

The coldest May-October period by the way is 1694 with 11.33

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

AS I wrote all the stats down, I might as well post them.

Looking at the warmest periods (that I managed to find ad-hoc) of May to October, the proceeding winter months CET is as follows:

(May-Oct values (ave), Proceeding Dec to Feb values (Ave))

1779 - 14.65 - 1.43

1781 - 14.63 - 4.17

1846 - 14.63 - 1.70

1868 - 14.47 - 6.77

1911 - 14.50 - 5.07

1921 - 14.50 - 4.87

1947 - 15.02 - 5.07

1949 - 14.78 - 5.10

1959 - 15.00 - 4.63

1976 - 14.90 - 3.33

1989 - 14.80 - 6.23

1995 - 15.05 - 3.03

1999 - 14.48 - 5.40

2003 - 14.60 - 5.13

2005 - 14.72 - 4.13

Good to see that, even in the 'even larger teapot' of 1995, a cool winter can still be had.

[Guest Mike W]

I always think of a even larger teapot as 1998 to present.

[The PIT]

Anyway back on subject. The next few days should push the CET up a little bit the question after that is whether the cool spell shows up or the winds continue from the mild direction.

[West is Best]

According to Philip the CET is on 13.3C http://www.climate-uk.com/

After an extremely mild night last night (double figures in the CET zone), and a mild first half of next week we're likely to reach 2/3rds through the month at least as high as 13C I'd have thought (possibly higher). That would leave 1/3rd of the month for a correction, which at the moment is looking less severe by each model run. Still a bit early to call, but the warmest 6 month period in the CET zone is looking a bit of a racing certainty.

Edited October 15, 2006 by West is Best

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Morning Richard.

A very real post there fella. I think, even if a more beefy cooler spell came off, the chance of it being a record warm 6 months is still a very good chance (or should I say a very very very good chance).

You've mentioned about the warm night last night, and I am once again astonished with our night time temps this month (and previous months...well...in fact the last year or so).

Around here (as a rough guide) we've been having maxes of about 15oC, however, mins have still been around 10oC. Sometimes is perhaps ~1oC lower, sometimes ~1oC higher.

I think TWS has mentioned it a number of times, but our October CET hasnt been effected so much by the day time maxes, but the night time mins.

[Stratos Ferric]

Morning Richard.

I think TWS has mentioned it a number of times, but our October CET hasnt been effected so much by the day time maxes, but the night time mins.

That's true pretty much right through the winter half, hence my frequent observations that frosts are far less frequent than once they were. It's a shame we don't track night time cloudiness because I'd wager big bucks that we're far cloudier than we used to be.

Overall, it's hard not to see the monthly CET coming in well above par now. If the coldest air does miss to our W, then the S of the UK would remain in a tropical feed for much of the forthcoming period, irrespective of what happens further north. There is a chance of a correction still for Scotland, and an outside chance that we might end up with an unusually steep N-S gradient.

[Nick F]

Temps look like reaching 21C (70F) tomorrow in the South, date record of 23.2C at Valley (Anglesey) in 1977 should stay intact though, tomorrow looks to see the peak of day maxes this week as rain and cloud looks to move North Tuesday onwards. But with a warm S'erly flow, night mins look to be high this coming week even right up to Friday if the colder air stays North of the Scottish border.

[Gray-Wolf]

I had a very big 'wobble' when the cold spell was mooted! now all I need is that Cape Verde blob to continue on it's northerly tack and the last week of Oct will keep the temps up and have my 'joke' temp not look so funny (we are in Oct aren't we?)

[The PIT]

Looking like my CET guess of 12.5C is going to be too low again. This weeks going to be very mild again as well.

[Stratos Ferric]

I had a very big 'wobble' when the cold spell was mooted! now all I need is that Cape Verde blob to continue on it's northerly tack and the last week of Oct will keep the temps up and have my 'joke' temp not look so funny (we are in Oct aren't we?)

The calendar says so, but the weeds in my centre bed disagree. I'm sure there are weeds growing now which are from this summer's seeds. I thought only the tropics had a double growing season.

[Ledbury Lad]

We are now half way through the three month Autumn season of 2006 and so far it has been the warmest here in Herefordshire since I started keeping records in the early 1950s. September was easily the warmest on record with me, and so far October has been the same. Mid October and I'm still going out in a tee shirt and believe me I'm no spring chicken B)

Some of the trees (still very few) are beginning to change colour, but it still has no feel of the season about it all, and I still see myself having to mow the lawns for more than just a few weeks more. I did hear a wireless (see, that's how old I am! ) report on the weather when it was stated that many people in the SW of the UK now mow their lawns all the year round.

Overnight 10/11 October the lowest temperature here was +15.4C, and so far I've recorded double figure minima on six nights. Last night the minimum was +12.8C. The screen temp did fall to +4.4C in the early hours of the 4th though, the lowest reading so far this season. The "high" so far this month has been +20.6C on the aforementioned 10th October.

Looks set to change from mid week onwards. I bought myself a new wet-weather outfit this wekend......I expect to try it out later this week. B)

Whatever the weather - enjoy.

Edited October 15, 2006 by Ledbury Lad

[West is Best]

That's true pretty much right through the winter half, hence my frequent observations that frosts are far less frequent than once they were. It's a shame we don't track night time cloudiness because I'd wager big bucks that we're far cloudier than we used to be.

Chris L / Stratos Ferric and others - I think you're right. The overall CET currently of 13.3C half way through the month on Philip Eden's index (http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm) shows the average minima to be 10.1C. That's almost the overall min-max average of 10.4C (or 10.2C for the last 100 years). That's extraordinary: the minimum temps are almost at the level that the normal day-night (min-max) average should be! :o

Mins should tail off for the last 1/3rd of the month, but even so it's quite amazing how warm nights have been.