October CET

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Richard.

Thanks for that info. I've been looking at the charts this morning, at the second half of the runs (represented by mainly 'average' type members).

Day time temps do not seem to high (low to mid teens mainly), but the night time temps....as you've said above, pretty much around the average for a whole 24 hour period.

[Optimus Prime]

Looks to me this month will only come a shade under 2005 and 2001.

So that's another October over 13c...

[West is Best]

So that's another October over 13c...

It might be, but I personally can't call that with literally half the month to go. Just as I'd caution a call for cold outside T96, I can't really be sure about the final CET with 2 weeks left. But you may well be right. The charts really do show a mild week now.

Have caught up with discussions here and in the model thread about the source of heat. Whilst I agree with Steve Murr about record heat often having a continental source, I think it may also be a combination of that and Stratos Ferric's point about night-time cloud cover. When we do get Atlantic south-westerlies the night-time minima seem remarkably high to me: much more so than used to the case. I suspect what we're getting is a combination of high spike temps from off the continent, and sometimes from Iberia / North Africa together with repeatedly high minima off the Atlantic when we do get into a slightly more zonal flow. The combination of the two things may be a factor in these recent records. thiswould of course need some sort of verification, so it's just an impression.

Edited October 16, 2006 by West is Best

[Optimus Prime]

've calculated the coming week will turn around a CET 15.0c for England due to moderately high minima and very high maxima (A few days showing 20c) while there were a few cooler night towards the end of the run.

So the CET might actually rise a little bit. I wouldn't bet it against ending up around 13.6c by the 20th...

So surely the October record has the potential of falling?

That would make 3 record breaking months....amazing.

Edited October 16, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[Weather-history]

Very strong possibility of the warmest May-October period on record, would only need an October of 9.5 to equal it.

The warmest Aug-Oct period is 1995. That would need an October of 12.9 to equal it.

The warmest September/October combination is 14.15 set in 2005, that would only need an October CET of 11.5 to equal it.

[Joneseye]

It might be, but I personally can't call that with literally half the month to go. Just as I'd caution a call for cold outside T96, I can't really be sure about the final CET with 2 weeks left. But you may well be right. The charts really do show a mild week now.

Have caught up with discussions here and in the model thread about the source of heat. Whilst I agree with Steve Murr about record heat often having a continental source, I think it may also be a combination of that and Stratos Ferric's point about night-time cloud cover. When we do get Atlantic south-westerlies the night-time minima seem remarkably high to me: much more so than used to the case. I suspect what we're getting is a combination of high spike temps from off the continent, and sometimes from Iberia / North Africa together with repeatedly high minima off the Atlantic when we do get into a slightly more zonal flow. The combination of the two things may be a factor in these recent records. thiswould of course need some sort of verification, so it's just an impression.

Some interesting observations there Richard.

Very strong possibility of the warmest May-October period on record, would only need an October of 9.5 to equal it.

The warmest Aug-Oct period is 1995. That would need an October of 12.9 to equal it.

The warmest September/October combination is 14.15 set in 2005, that would only need an October CET of 11.5 to equal it.

Looks like a good chance of all 3 happening!

[Optimus Prime]

Hi Mr Data. So what's the record for May to December period (since the re-start of the crazy warming) I bet if October turns a CET around 13c after September coming in at 16.8c and July coming in at 19.7c (June almost 16.0c) bother November and December would need to average only a half or a degree above norm?

[Gray-Wolf]

Have caught up with discussions here and in the model thread about the source of heat. Whilst I agree with Steve Murr about record heat often having a continental source, I think it may also be a combination of that and Stratos Ferric's point about night-time cloud cover. When we do get Atlantic south-westerlies the night-time minima seem remarkably high to me: much more so than used to the case. I suspect what we're getting is a combination of high spike temps from off the continent, and sometimes from Iberia / North Africa together with repeatedly high minima off the Atlantic when we do get into a slightly more zonal flow. The combination of the two things may be a factor in these recent records. thiswould of course need some sort of verification, so it's just an impression.

I've moved on from watching the flow off Africa (and into the Atlantic off the Cape Verde islands) for the formation of waves over the poast 2 months to the steady flow North (and us) via a paddle in the Atlantic. We have missed some of the rain events (france hasn't) but the temps have certainly travelled from there! I haven't seen such a constant movement from West Africa to continental europe before (even the Sahara seems to be catching some of this 'flow'). At present I cannot see a 'switch' back to normal (flowing across the Atlantic) so we must have at least 5 days more of this balmy weather (it takes about that for it to get up here) which only leaves the last week of Oct. to cool the average down. If by Friday the flow remains the same then all of Oct. will have this influence.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I for one just cannot understand the possibility of two Octobers on the trot with a 13*C CET. The only time anything close to this happened was in the Octobers of 1968 and 1969 with CETs of 12.5 and 13.0 respectively. To get the warmest September / October combination broken two years running is just unthinkable. Although last year only broke it by a tenth of a degree a believe.

This month is just almost repeating the surface pressure patterns of last October - warm southerlies in second week - Scandy High mid month, Greeny High but mild low pressure in the UK third week, and so on. Oct 2006 is just seemingly a rerun almost to the weather patterns on almost exactly the same day as Oct 2005.

[Weather-history]

Hi Mr Data. So what's the record for May to December period (since the re-start of the crazy warming)

1959 with 12.89C for May-December

[Optimus Prime]

Well if October ends up at 13.0c we'd be at 15.6.

We'd then need November and December to come out exactly average to the 71-2000 mean for that period to average 13.2c and in response breaking the May-December record.

Could bed hit and run whether December manages an above average month, they don't happen all that often. As for November, I think it's likely that will come outf above average.

And if November and December come out average, the CET for the whole year would average 10.63. And so equally 1999 and 1990 as the joint 1st warmest year ever!

Edited October 16, 2006 by Optimus Prime

[Dawlish]

With the gfs as they are on the 06z, the Oct CET will stay in record territory and we may end up with a monthly record. Exciting times. CET records beig challenged month after month. It really is interesting.

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

CET records beig challenged month after month. It really is interesting.

Paul

Certainly is, but it's hardly anything new.

I remember March though, when it was 2.6c nearing the end. There was actually a chance it could beat 1962's record of 2.8c (record for the 20th century)

Howether that remarkably warm end came along and shoved it into the 'slightly below average' category at 4.9c.

[reef]

Certainly is, but it's hardly anything new.

I remember March though, when it was 2.6c nearing the end. There was actually a chance it could beat 1962's record of 2.8c (record for the 20th century)

Howether that remarkably warm end came along and shoved it into the 'slightly below average' category at 4.9c.

Such is the problem with the 'modern climate'. We still get both warm and cold spells, but as time goes on the cold spells get milder and the warm spells get warmer. As a result, it becomes ever more difficult to record a well-below average month (and indeed, even an average one). Already in my location the last one was October 2003, at 1.1°C below average. Since then, only March 2006 has come even remotely close, and that was 'only' 0.9°C below average due to the last week.

Its certainly interesting that lots of record warm CETs are being recorded, but as a general weather lover, this uniformly very mild/warm/hot weather since May is becoming a little tiresome now.

[summer blizzard]

I think people are overstating the warmth on the GFS, yes temperatures will stay above average however only around 1C above average which will knock the CET back to around 12C.

The CET will peak in the next few days at around 13.5C, the last 10 days of October look to produce a CET of under 11.5C, so i doubt the October CET will be over 12.5C and would place a bet on such things should Dawlish offer any odds.

[parmenides3]

The Met's latest on CET from May-September. Guess what?

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/corporate/pre...pr20061016.html

What odds now for the warmest May-December?

:)P

[West is Best]

I think people are overstating the warmth on the GFS

I just don't find the GFS temperature guides at all accurate SB. The further out you look the worse they are. In any case, you generally need to add 3C to their charts as they're always well under the reality.

The Met's latest on CET from May-September. Guess what?

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/corporate/pre...pr20061016.html

Thanks for the link.

Ought to be the Net-Weather homepage headline really ... surely?! I mean it's extraordinary.

[summer blizzard]

I am basing this on a variety of data sources to make this assumtion.

While this month has been similar to that of 2005, two factors are preventing me from calling for a record warm month, these are:

1) Less surface heat than 2005

2) More cyclonic outlook (lower maxima)

[West is Best]

.

Ought to be the Net-Weather homepage headline really ... surely?! I mean it's extraordinary.

I note with interest that the Met Office have put this in that link:

"The observed Central England temperatures are consistent with recent findings by Prof. David Karoly of the University of Oklahoma and Dr Peter Stott of the Met Office Hadley Centre. Their research showed the recent rapid warming of the CET is almost certainly due to human influence - the first time this has been rigorously identified on such a small geographic scale." http://www.met-office.gov.uk/corporate/pre...pr20061016.html

And this graph is fairly remarkable ...

Edited October 16, 2006 by West is Best

[The PIT]

Yeh the GFS temp like there rainfall predictions aren't the best in the world. This October looks being very close to last years Octobers average. At the moment here we're 0.15C down but in the CET area of course that could be different.

[Optimus Prime]

This really is incredible warmth, but probably nothing compared to what may be around the corner.

Summer just seems tof be going on and on, could well be November that participates summer-like warmth! How incredible would it be if November has a CET above the 1994 record of 10.1c! If tfhat happens we would be on course for a yearly average above 11.0c (10.9 to be accurate)

[Optimus Prime]

Well going by the current run, from 17th until the end the average temperature will be 14.6c.

The average CET winds up at a huge 13.8c (3.2c above average) Although minima looks like it won't be a record, maxima will be if current trends continue.

[Dawlish]

Well going by the current run, from 17th until the end the average temperature will be 14.6c.

The average CET winds up at a huge 13.8c (3.2c above average) Although minima looks like it won't be a record, maxima will be if current trends continue.

Thanks OP, my thinking too. As the gfs stands today, October 2006 could well come out as another record CET month. It's been an exceptional year so far. With an above average end to the year, 2006 could well produce the first 11C+ annual CET ever - and that is after a cooler than average start. Quite an amazing thing for anyone who follows weather stats, should it happen. The warmest year in nearly 350 years doesn't happen every year! (well, it probably wouldn't......really......if you think about it!)

Paul

Edited October 17, 2006 by Dawlish

[ukmoose]

Chris L / Stratos Ferric and others - I think you're right. The overall CET currently of 13.3C half way through the month on Philip Eden's index (http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm) shows the average minima to be 10.1C. That's almost the overall min-max average of 10.4C (or 10.2C for the last 100 years). That's extraordinary: the minimum temps are almost at the level that the normal day-night (min-max) average should be!

Mins should tail off for the last 1/3rd of the month, but even so it's quite amazing how warm nights have been.

It's not amazing anymore though West, is it? Temperatures are rising, maxima records falling like autumn leaves and no sign of autumn. Autumn, to all intents and purposes, is a 'dead' season. It's just a conitnuation of summer now, just a bit darker. Look at the past few years - it's what we should expect and can base our predictions on.

What would be amazing is if it turned cold by Bonfire night (no chance though).

Moose

[Snowly does it]

It's not amazing anymore though West, is it? Temperatures are rising, maxima records falling like autumn leaves and no sign of autumn. Autumn, to all intents and purposes, is a 'dead' season. It's just a conitnuation of summer now, just a bit darker. Look at the past few years - it's what we should expect and can base our predictions on.

What would be amazing is if it turned cold by Bonfire night (no chance though).

Moose

Not really, we'd be pretty disappointed in a summer month with a 13 CET.

No maxima records have fallen this October afaik.

The current high CET (which sits somehwere below where it would need to be to hit the record unless the second half is warmer than the first) has been boosted by very high minima again, a result of the cloudy skies we have been under.

Autumn is still Autumn, its still unsettled, it can be windy, its just a little warmer than it used to be (this year especially).

We are not in global meltdown yet, temperatures are higher and yet this year will still need to go some to be the hottest ever for the UK. Global warming is upon us, but it hasn't yet managed to destroy a season...

FWIW I think the CET will now end up in the mid 12s, putting us exactly on par with this time last year.

As for Bonfire Night, ther is no way we can tell what it will be like as yet, a slight shifting of that Euro Block (which WILL happen at some point) alongside an incursion from the north would make it colder, thats not a NIL chance, nothing is a NIL chance within the realms of possible weathers at this range.

Edited October 17, 2006 by snowmaiden