October CET

[SMU]

There is the quite staggering possibility that my own projection for the month may yet turn out to be too LOW! The odds on a yearly outcome higher than last year are now shortening considerably, and anything significantly lower can be ruled out almost absolutely.

This is Sept NH 850 anomaly- No negs to counteract the pos!!!!

S

[West is Best]

Philip now has his CET on 13.4C http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

The average minima now just about equals the normal combined average for the month at 10.3C

[Weather-history]

The warmest May-Oct period record falling is a dead cert but also the warmest Apr-Oct and warmest Mar-Oct periods are up for grabs.

The warmest Feb-Oct period is not, thats safe this time and that was set in 1779

[Stratos Ferric]

The warmest May-Oct period record falling is a dead cert but also the warmest Apr-Oct and warmest Mar-Oct periods are up for grabs.

The warmest Feb-Oct period is not, thats safe this time and that was set in 1779

Let's just face it: anything on the upside is constantly up for grabs. I'l check warmest year when I get home this evening, but it's got to be drifting well within bounds now.

[Optimus Prime]

At the moment we're equalling 2001s record of 13.4c. I don't think we'll beat that record but it looks quite likely we'll get 2nd place (beating 2005 and 1969)

[Bottesford]

At the moment we're equalling 2001s record of 13.4c. I don't think we'll beat that record but it looks quite likely we'll get 2nd place (beating 2005 and 1969)

Think 2001 is 13.3c so we're in the lead again. And with the look of those charts- it could stay on top. Imagine that- the July, September and October records all falling in one year!

[Stratos Ferric]

Thinking about it, and I suspect this has been true of several warm months in recent autumns, the warmth, whilst being predominantly night time deviation, is not often extreme. What is tending to hold mean monthly temperature up is the lack of any cold interludes. It's a statement of the obvious on one level, but something we sem to be overlooking. July was not entirely dissimilar I seem to recall, witout ever being exceptionally hot it simply never got at all cool for the time of year.

Where is all the cold going?

[SMU]

Thinking about it, and I suspect this has been true of several warm months in recent autumns, the warmth, whilst being predominantly night time deviation, is not often extreme. What is tending to hold mean monthly temperature up is the lack of any cold interludes. It's a statement of the obvious on one level, but something we sem to be overlooking. July was not entirely dissimilar I seem to recall, witout ever being exceptionally hot it simply never got at all cool for the time of year.

Where is all the cold going?

Usually goes to greece & Turkey in winter by the sounds of it....... <_< ( & occasioanlly Peterborough)

Continental Uk- Has a sort of ring to it .............

S

[Scorcher]

Thinking about it, and I suspect this has been true of several warm months in recent autumns, the warmth, whilst being predominantly night time deviation, is not often extreme. What is tending to hold mean monthly temperature up is the lack of any cold interludes. It's a statement of the obvious on one level, but something we sem to be overlooking. July was not entirely dissimilar I seem to recall, witout ever being exceptionally hot it simply never got at all cool for the time of year.

Where is all the cold going?

I personally would put the high temperatures we saw in July in the exceptionally hot category. Is 35C at Liverpool Airport not exceptionally hot? In Manchester we also reached 30C on 4 or 5 occasions in the month which is very unusual.

[West is Best]

13.5C now on Philip's CET http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

No real sign of any significant cooldown in the offing either, so something at 13C or above can't be dismissed too lightly.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

13.5C now on Philip's CET http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0610.htm

No real sign of any significant cooldown in the offing either, so something at 13C or above can't be dismissed too lightly.

Indeed Richard. 13oC should be round about the minimum for the October CET (maybe give or take a very small margin). Another above average month.

Can anybody remind me. What is the October CET Record?

[Weather-history]

.

Can anybody remind me. What is the October CET Record?

13.3 set in 2001

It all depends on the coming week.

[Snowly does it]

13.3 set in 2001

It all depends on the coming week.

Can't see it - the average has bumped along at 13.3-13.5 for an age and next week looks cooler. I think 13 is probably the upper limit personally, not that 13 isn't jaw-dropping in itself!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

13.3 set in 2001

It all depends on the coming week.

Thanks MrD. I thought i'd stop be a lazy bum, and have a look too <_<

Actually, there arent many months with a CET above 13.0 (inclusive)?

I've got for 12.0-12.9oC - 8 Months in the METO series

For 13.0-13.9oC - 2 months in the METO series

So it will be close into which series it goes. Still, I think a top 5 warmest October is very likely, quite likely to be a top3, and possible to be a record October.

What I have found interesting, is that all of the 10 years above, the proceeding winer had at least one month in winter below average (I believe).

[Weather-history]

Thanks MrD. I thought i'd stop be a lazy bum, and have a look too <_<

Actually, there arent many months with a CET above 13.0 (inclusive)?

I've got for 12.0-12.9oC - 8 Months in the METO series

For 13.0-13.9oC - 2 months in the METO series

So it will be close into which series it goes. Still, I think a top 5 warmest October is very likely, quite likely to be a top3, and possible to be a record October.

What I have found interesting, is that all of the 10 years above, the proceeding winer had at least one month in winter below average (I believe).

There's never been two consecutive Octobers with a CET of 13 or greater and there has only one pairing of two consecutive Octobers with a CET of 12+ (1968, 1969)

That autumn CET record of 11.8 set in 1730 and 1731 is certainly there for the taking, we were well on our way last year by mid November.

[Dawlish]

Indeed Richard. 13oC should be round about the minimum for the October CET (maybe give or take a very small margin). Another above average month.

Can anybody remind me. What is the October CET Record?

13.3C from 2001, Chris.

To put the warmth in further context, there have only ever been 3 Octobers of 13C, or above since 1659. With the gfs as it is, even without the heat that last night's charts suggested, the Manley Oct record is still quite possible. For it to drop below 13C would be unlikely. There have never been 2 Octobers in succession with a CET of 13C+ and if this year manages 13C, we will have had 3 in the last 6 years.

None of this, on it's own, is evidence that our climate is warming, but taken together with an avalanche of warm records and an almost complete absence of cold records, (note, almost - every warm trend will have cold spikes) in the last 20ish years, especially the annual, mean records, the evidence is incontestable.

Paul

EDIT - you both got there before me! Chris, have you got this link to the Hadley series?

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

Edited October 21, 2006 by Dawlish

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadl.../HadCET_act.txt

Yep. Thanks Paul. Been using that for my above post, but as usual, missed out one year of 13.0+ <_<

Just doing some analysis now. Its of course, not going to be set in stone, but of interest hopefully.

[Glacier Point]

There's never been two consecutive Octobers with a CET of 13 or greater and there has only one pairing of two consecutive Octobers with a CET of 12+ (1968, 1969)

That autumn CET record of 11.8 set in 1730 and 1731 is certainly there for the taking, we were well on our way last year by mid November.

Those two comparables are illuminating. 1968 was the only year recorded with an August to October -ve NAO whilst the SSTAs for both years was very similar to todays. This October will come in as the only other recorded incidence of the three consecutive months NAO for the same time.

I singled out 1969 as a useful comparable for the Atlantic because it most matched the Summer variables - and it continues to throw up the comparisons.

GP

[Dawlish]

Yep. Thanks Paul. Been using that for my above post, but as usual, missed out one year of 13.0+ <_<

In some ways, Octs 1968/69, with a mean CET of 12.75C and, essentially, being before GWUK, were more anomalous than this year's and last year's back-to-back Octobers.

Paul

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

and, essentially, being before GWUK

A valid point to a degree, but lets just use the correct term of GW, not GWUK (no such official term i'm afraid) <_<

A discussion for another thread?!

So here is the comparitive chart.

Using Octobers with a CET of 12.0oC+, and the following proceeding winters. Average CET used was 71-00 average.

GW or not, this is a compartive of actual figures reached.

CET_Oct.xls

Make of it as you wish. The only point I will make is that although a warm October does not give an overall cold or warm winter, it is clear that a warm October, such as this year, does not mean there isnt a possability of a cold winter, and more predominantly, at least one below average CET month during the season.

[Stratos Ferric]

Chris,

Not absolutely clear to me how you've cast the comparisons there. Always using1971-00 as the baseline is slightly misleading,particularly if the behaviour of months across the series relative to each has not been constant (and it has not).

Here's another cut, which also picks up some of D's points.

October_data.xls

What this does is compare Otober against the thirty Octobers prior, and the winter mean against the mean for 30 winter prior. On this basis a number of things become apparent:

Neither 1969, 2005 nor 2001 were the most anomalous October, when viewed in context. At the time 1921 established a new high mark and was remarkable given the previous years.

Warm Octobers all but never presage cold winters.; 1995 is the best we manage, but coming so close to the "even larger teapot" (if not actually being part of the set - I would actually use post 1996 as the cut-off myself) it is a very small crumb of comfort as we look forward this year.

P.S. Look at the other end of that list. Cold Octobers presage cold winters. There really ought to be no surprise in this. All this data demonstrates is that each month TENDS to align with the overalclimatic norm at the time, and that norm is generally year round i.e. we don't have sustained summer warming with coincident winter cooling. All other things being pretty equal, we are likeliest to get cold winters when we have year round cold, and vice-versa. This latter does NOT bode well for the winter ahead.

P.P.S. Winter averages obviously cover a multitude of variation, and as Chris's data illustrate, cold spells or cold months can still occur, though they must be less likely, and / or of shorter duration and intensity.

Edited October 21, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The whole point of using 71-00 SF was to keep the comparison on a constant.

I never did the spread sheet to show a crumb of comfort, but just as a comparison of what happens with warmer Octobers.

For me, just comparing the 3 months of data will always miss out points. Hence why I included every month during the winter period.

Of course, shift the base line, and the end result will vary. How ever, some of the individual months will still give negative and positive results.

The point being that, whatever base line you use, you will still get negative and positive results.

All i've stated is that a warm October does not mean anything, and that the winter can go either way. The results are there for others to make their mind up, and I have never deviated from the fact of which average CET i've been using (so I wouldnt call it misleading - I can use another baselien if you wish, I was just using the latest).

Statistics are always up for analysis and criticism, but was just trying to show something of interest.

[Dawlish]

A valid point to a degree, but lets just use the correct term of GW, not GWUK (no such official term i'm afraid)

I use the term that best describes the situation.

It just seems a decent term to use. I started using it about 2 years ago, because of the obvious nature of the Global Warming trend. It isn't linear in either a spatial, or a temporal way. Because of its spatial non-linearity, different areas respond to the GW trend in different ways. The UK is no exception to that, yet it cannot be isolated from the overall warming trend. The UK is warming, but in a different way to almost anywhere else on the planet. Hence GWUK/UKGW.

I think I'll carry on using it. Language is a wonderful thing. <_<

Paul

[johnholmes]

P.S. Look at the other end of that list. Cold Octobers presage cold winters. There really ought to be no surprise in this. All this data demonstrates is that each month TENDS to align with the overalclimatic norm at the time, and that norm is generally year round i.e. we don't have sustained summer warming with coincident winter cooling. All other things being pretty equal, we are likeliest to get cold winters when we have year round cold, and vice-versa. This latter does NOT bode well for the winter ahead.

hi re the above.

So what about winter 1947 followed by summer 1947.

I think I have posted before that there are as many occasions when cold follows cold as warm follows warm, or cold then warm and warm then cold. There is no discernible pattern, otherwise pattern matching would work. It does not. At least not well enough to give a high enough accuracy for any of the big players to use it.

John

Edited October 21, 2006 by johnholmes

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think I'll carry on using it. Language is a wonderful thing. <_<

Use what you like Paul. Language is a wonderful thing, but it doesnt make sense. Global Warming UK. UK Global Warming. Are were at the centre of the warming or something, or have I missed it.

The only sense would be if it were a club or some sort, or term used to create some sort of, I dont know, annoyance amoungst other members.

Or perhaps i'm wrong.

Just to clarify, the UK is a country, the globe is the world. Hence why its called global warming, and it is the world that it warming. But hey, perhaps i'm being picky.