October CET

[summer blizzard]

TWO have the CET as 12.4C.

Metcheck have the CET at 12.8C

NetWeather have the CET at 12.9C.

As Phillip Eden had the current CET as 12.7C on the 5th and it has risen since then, NetWeather is most likely the closest.

[West is Best]

Philip Eden currently has the CET on 13.15C after the first week of October. It probably doesn't mean too much at the moment, except that it's been a very mild start to October! With this week also looking well above there's every chance we're going to get to mid-october at around 13C - some 2.6C above the 1971-2000 average of 10.4C.

Interestingly (or not!) October is the only month where the 1961-1990 average is higher than the more recent 1971-2000 one (10.6C against 10.4C). The rolling 100 year average for October is 10.2C.

Although it's early days I can't really see why another thumpingly warm month isn't going to be on the cards. Whilst one must be slightly careful about projecting the local onto the global, one wonders how many more record-breaking warming stats will be required for the last of the maverick sceptic fringe to resist AGW ... this is all the more the case when the global picture continues to produce a relentless cavalcade of warm records.

Edited October 9, 2006 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

Philip Eden currently has the CET on 13.15C after the first week of October. It probably doesn't mean too much at the moment, except that it's been a very mild start to October! With this week also looking well above there's every chance we're going to get to mid-october at around 13C - some 2.6C above the 1971-2000 average of 10.4C.

Interestingly (or not!) October is the only month where the 1961-1990 average is higher than the more recent 1971-2000 one (10.6C against 10.4C). The rolling 100 year average for October is 10.2C.

Although it's early days I can't really see why another thumpingly warm month isn't going to be on the cards. Whilst one must be slightly careful about projecting the local onto the global, one wonders how many more record-breaking warming stats will be required for the last of the maverick sceptic fringe to resist AGW ... this is all the more the case when the global picture continues to produce a relentless cavalcade of warm records.

I think it's a bit early to be placing too much money on a very high monthly CET. Temperatures can drop off sharply during October, and it is the month of the year with the biggest mean drop from start to finish, but from where we are, and given the probability of a very warm week ahead, particularly with some warm nights after tonight, then anything other than an above par month would require a remarkably cold end to the month. If by the 18th we were, say, still 2.5C above monthly mean, the last 13 days would need to come in at around 3.5C below the norm to even things out.

That's around 2SDs below mean for late October, and would require a run of sustained absolute cold that is unprecedented in recent years. In March we touched that level of relative cold for around five odd days. Much depends on whether the potential NE'ly flow, causing some early ramping (SATSIGs are watching very closely), actually comes off.

[Optimus Prime]

causing some early ramping (SATSIGs are watching very closely), actually comes off.

Any ramping would probably produce enough heat required to just about offset a cold enough second half to correct the very warm first

[kold weather]

SF did we not have that level of cold your talking about during late November 2005, as the CET for the last 7 days was a cold 1.6C I believe, in fact that was one of the coldest periods that winter as well.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall March being 3.0C down on the 1971-2000 average after the first 23 days, and about 5.5C down after the first 5 days. Interestingly most of the anomaly in 1-5 March was due to low minima, whereas for the rest of the month it was mainly the maxima that were low.

I remember, however, that the temperatures in the Arctic, following a record-breaking winter, had returned to near-normal levels by early March, so the northerly we got was quite usual for a potent early-March incursion.

It does show, though, that temperatures in the Arctic are capable of falling to near-normal levels in winter.

[The PIT]

Back on Subject it looks like this October could follow last month in being extremly warm. FI has colder weather shown but it's moving back with each run so it's not coming any nearer.

[Stratos Ferric]

SF did we not have that level of cold your talking about during late November 2005, as the CET for the last 7 days was a cold 1.6C I believe, in fact that was one of the coldest periods that winter as well.

We'd need the precise data to check it, but it would certainly be in the ballpark. I don't have the Hadley plots from last year to check, and the UKMO don't see to archive them.

Back on Subject it looks like this October could follow last month in being extremly warm. FI has colder weather shown but it's moving back with each run so it's not coming any nearer.

I wouldn't dismiss absolutely just yet the chance of something colder late month; it's not the favourite outcome, but nor is it "beyond odds" just yet.

[summer blizzard]

I remeber the dat from Phillip Edens site, the second half of November 2006 produced a CET of 1.6C, the coldest since 1993.

[WBSH]

I remeber the dat from Phillip Edens site, the second half of November 2006 produced a CET of 1.6C, the coldest since 1993.

I should hope you mean "second half of November 2005" SB or we might have a mystic meg on here

WBSH

[Dawlish]

I remeber the dat from Phillip Edens site, the second half of November 2006 produced a CET of 1.6C, the coldest since 1993.

I seem to remember the same, summer. Here's the link to Philip's review of last November.

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0511.htm

He points to temps 3.5-4C below normal in the last 2 weeks. The difference between the CET in the first half and the CET in the second half, of Nov 2005, was around 6C!

Paul

Edited October 9, 2006 by Dawlish

[The PIT]

I wouldn't be surprised if this year did follow last Autumns and the change from mild to a sudden cold spell in November. Supposed to be cold tonight falling of rapidy here.

[chilly milly]

This year, given the record breaking September, October needs to come in at 11.7 to equal the record for the "diad".

Can anyone explain what the 'diad' is for me please, as I don't understand this quote.

Also what is the average CET for October? Sorry if its already been posted but I did check back and couldn't see it.

And finally I'll go for 11.7C too. I know I've missed the cut-off date but for my own benefit and weighing up all thats been said, thought I'd give it a go.

[Bham Chris]

I wouldn't be surprised if this year did follow last Autumns and the change from mild to a sudden cold spell in November. Supposed to be cold tonight falling of rapidy here.

I would certainly love that,and there's hints in the model it may happen,eventually.In the mean time,I feel that we could be in for yet another record breaking month unless the pattern changes sooner than I expect.

[Weather-history]

I remeber the dat from Phillip Edens site, the second half of November 2006 produced a CET of 1.6C, the coldest since 1993.

Yes, the second half of November 2005 was 1.6C for Philip's data

A similiar collapse in the CET has happened during an October and that was in 1926, where by months end, snow was falling and accumulating even in the south

[Stratos Ferric]

Can anyone explain what the 'diad' is for me please, as I don't understand this quote.

Also what is the average CET for October? Sorry if its already been posted but I did check back and couldn't see it.

And finally I'll go for 11.7C too. I know I've missed the cut-off date but for my own benefit and weighing up all thats been said, thought I'd give it a go.

The diad is just the pairing of the months together; it's a (too) loose use of the word, hence the quotes.

[summer blizzard]

NetWeather have the average temperature as 13.2C, which is 2.8C above the monthly average and around 1C above what the temperature should be at this time of year.

[chilly milly]

Thanks for the reply SF, I understand now. And SB too, you've just answered my other question. :lol:

[summer blizzard]

NetWeather have the average temperature as 13.4C, which upon further maths is around is just less than 1C above what it should be.

[Stratos Ferric]

NetWeather have the average temperature as 13.4C, which upon further maths is around is just less than 1C above what it should be.

..or maybe around 1.7. Looking at Philips plots he has the norms for the 11th at 15 and 7, and for the 1st at around 16 and 9. Needs to be cool from here on in to get close to par for the month. Spread betting would probably place the market right now at an outturn of 11.8-12.2 for the month.

[Optimus Prime]

Well it looks as if the avarage for the first half of October will be easily 4c-5c above average, possibly the warmest first half on record?

But if what's projected by some of the charts, becomes reality with a large Scandinavian high developing north west of us and eventually dragging down some cool arctic air the second half would more then likely be much below in anomaly.

The first half should be 4.5c above average, the last half would need to be around 1.9c above average to pass the record.

It does looks much less likely than it did that the October record will fall. It looks almost certain october wsill be comfotably above average though.

[Weather-history]

Well it looks as if the avarage for the first half of October will be easily 4c-5c above average, possibly the warmest first half on record?

Unlikely, when you consider the first half of October 1921 had these as the highest maxima for these dates

4th: 27.2C

5th: 28.9C

6th: 28.9C

7th: 26.7C

8th: 25.6C

9th: 27.8C

10th: 25.6C

This October hasn't even recorded these type of temperatures.

I'm not sure where you get 4-5C above average from because by the 7th, it was 1.2C above average.

Edited October 12, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Unlikely, when you consider the first half of October 1921 had these as the highest maxima for these dates

4th: 27.2C

5th: 28.9C

6th: 28.9C

7th: 26.7C

8th: 25.6C

9th: 27.8C

10th: 25.6C

This October hasn't even recorded these type of temperatures.

I'm not sure where you get 4-5C above average from because by the 7th, it was 1.2C above average.

Agree with that Mr D.

Re OP's variance, I suspect part of that large number is achieved by comparing with the average for the month as a whose, as opposed to for the month to date; even so I think +4 overstates the situation by about a degree.

[Scorcher]

Unlikely, when you consider the first half of October 1921 had these as the highest maxima for these dates

4th: 27.2C

5th: 28.9C

6th: 28.9C

7th: 26.7C

8th: 25.6C

9th: 27.8C

10th: 25.6C

This October hasn't even recorded these type of temperatures.

I'm not sure where you get 4-5C above average from because by the 7th, it was 1.2C above average. :lol:

The question is, how come October 1921 isn't the warmest on record after a week like that? That's an incredible sequence for so late in the year. It must have taken something quite cool in the second half to make the month as a whole cooler than 2001 and 2005 were.

[johnholmes]

mean temp here to 12th=13.4C, against a long term average of 10.5C for the whole month.