October CET

[summer blizzard]

Here are my CET predictions over the past year... (prediction, actual, difference)

January: 4.7C: 4.3C: -0.3C

February: 3.7C: 3.7C:0C

March: 5.3C: 4.9C: -0.4C

April: 10.6C: 8.6C: 2C

May: 11.8C: 12.3C: 0.5C

June: 12.6C: 15.9C: 3.3C

July: 20C: 19.7C: -0.3C

August: 15.2C: 16.1C: 0.9C

September: 15.2C: 16.8C: 1.6C

October: 10.4C: ?

November: 3.9C: ?

December: 5.1C: ?

My margin of error is 0.5C either way, therefore i have been successfull on five out of nine occasions, which is a majority.

[Mammatus]

Here are my CET predictions over the past year... (prediction, actual, difference)

January: 4.7C: 4.3C: -0.3C

February: 3.7C: 3.7C:0C

March: 5.3C: 4.9C: -0.4C

April: 10.6C: 8.6C: 2C

May: 11.8C: 12.3C: 0.5C

June: 12.6C: 15.9C: 3.3C

July: 20C: 19.7C: -0.3C

August: 15.2C: 16.1C: 0.9C

September: 15.2C: 16.8C: 1.6C

October: 10.4C: ?

November: 3.9C: ?

December: 5.1C: ?

My margin of error is 0.5C either way, therefore i have been successfull on five out of nine occasions, which is a majority.

Great work Summer blizzard, your nearly there

Mammatus

Edited October 3, 2006 by Mammatus

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interestingly, the NetWeather 16 Day Ave Temp Tracker has no day (in the next 16) below the average for October.

Obviously, the start of the month is (in theory) warmer than the end, but all in all, still looking to remain above average until the middle of the month.

[Stratos Ferric]

...I just though that i would say that people predicting 12.9C are unlikely to be correct, as two years having the same October CET is unprecidented...

SB,

Given that any given month's CET tends to fall within a fairly narrow band (say around 2C most of the time)then back to back (near) identical outturns should be expected to occur about once every 2-3 years I'd guess. Checking the data, I now see that May 2003-4, April 2000-01, July 86-87, Oct 85-86, March 84-85, Sept 83-84...the return period is around 40 months or so; slightly longer than I'd have expected, but having calculated the monthly SDs since I started typing the typical range is larger than I thought; about 1-1.2 C during summer and 1.4-2.0 during the winter half. That latter explains why there's no winter months in my short list of recent occurrences.

In any case, I have Hadley last year as 13.1C, and I'm fairly sure the data was pulled from the Hadley site.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Glacier Point]

I just though that i would say that people predicting 12.9C are unlikely to be correct, as two years having the same October CET is unprecidented.

easy SB, the league hasn't started yet - then you can try and psych us out..

GP

[Stratos Ferric]

Here are my CET predictions over the past year... (prediction, actual, difference)

January: 4.7C: 4.3C: -0.3C

February: 3.7C: 3.7C:0C

March: 5.3C: 4.9C: -0.4C

April: 10.6C: 8.6C: 2C

May: 11.8C: 12.3C: 0.5C

June: 12.6C: 15.9C: 3.3C

July: 20C: 19.7C: -0.3C

August: 15.2C: 16.1C: 0.9C

September: 15.2C: 16.8C: 1.6C

October: 10.4C: ?

November: 3.9C: ?

December: 5.1C: ?

My margin of error is 0.5C either way, therefore i have been successfull on five out of nine occasions, which is a majority.

SB, surely you should be in the forecasting team.

My tongue's sore.

Edited October 4, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not taken yet so 11.3C it is then. As we seem to be getting 'westerly' influence due to irreversible and out of control AGW we will be above average

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Just a reminder that all CET predictions or changes to predictions must be in by midnight tonight.

[Dawlish]

Just a reminder that all CET predictions or changes to predictions must be in by midnight tonight.

Oh great, I thought these were set in stone after October started!! I'll up mine to 13.2C, if I may, about level with last year, looking at the changes in the gfs since I first guessed!

Paul

[Bottesford]

Oh great, I thought these were set in stone after October started!! I'll up mine to 13.2C, if I may, about level with last year, looking at the changes in the gfs since I first guessed!

Paul

Too late! Midnight passed 11 hours ago B)

[Anti-Mild]

November: 3.9C: ?

Blimey SB, I just spotted your prediction for November! That would make it the coldest November since 1925, unless I've missed one B) , and colder than all but 3 of the last 15 Winter months :o !

Bold prediction and believe me, I hope it comes off!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I went for 11.9C

B)

[Stratos Ferric]

Blimey SB, I just spotted your prediction for November! That would make it the coldest November since 1925, unless I've missed one B) , and colder than all but 3 of the last 15 Winter months :o !

Bold prediction and believe me, I hope it comes off!!

I rather doubt that that will necessarily be SB's prediction come the end of October, but we shall see.

[Anti-Mild]

I rather doubt that that will necessarily be SB's prediction come the end of October, but we shall see.

Even as a preliminary figure it is still way out there. There can't be much more than a handful of colder Novembers throughout the entire CET series.

[summer blizzard]

Tinybill: 6.4C

Joneseye: 7.5C

Optimus Prime: 9.3C

Tinybill: 9.4C

Snow-Man2006: 9.5C

Hiya: 9.8C

Mike W: 9.8C

Beng: 9.9C

Shuggee: 10C

Convection currents: 10.1C

Red Raven: 10.1C

Steve Murr: 10.2C

SteveB: 10.2C

Stormchaser1: 10.3C

Summer Blizzard: 10.4C

Mammatus: 10.4C

Senior Ridge: 10.5C

Medway Frezee: 10.5C

Wilson: 10.5C

WindWatcher: 10.6C

Intrepid: 10.7C

Snowmaiden: 10.7C

Stargazer: 10.7C

Paul Carfoot: 10.7C

Reef: 10.8C

Wellington Boot: 10.8C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 10.8C

Roger J Smith: 10.9C

PhilipEden: 10.9C

Skiwi: 10.9

Viking141: 11C

Lesta_snow: 11C

The Abominable Snowman: 11C

Tesaro: 11.1C

Anti-Mild: 11.2C

Mr Sleet: 11.2C

Blast From The Past: 11.3C

ChrisL: 11.4C

Kold weather: 11.5C

Mr Maunder: 11.6C

Snowyowl9: 11.7C

Stricklands: 11.7C

Dawlish: 11.7C

Parmenides3: 11.8C

Rollo: 11.9C

Terminal Moraine: 11.9C

Thundery wintry showers: 11.9C

Somerset Squall: 12C

Stephen Prudence: 12C

The PIT: 12C

Bham Chris: 12.1C

Robbie: 12.1C

Bottesford: 12.2C

Megamoonflake: 12.3C

Summer of 95: 12.3C

Windswept: 12.4C

Timmy H: 12.4C

Cymru: 12.4C

Suruike: 12.5C

Tugmistress: 12.6C

Snowprincess: 12.7C

Scorcher: 12.7C

Glacier Point: 12.9C

Stratos Ferric: 12.9C

Ukmoose: 12.9C

Gray-Wolf: 13.2C

West is Best: 13.4C

Sorry Dawlish, but unless a moderator overrules me, it is too late as i have mentioned this three times, to avoid further confusion next month, i mention it every day.

In regards to my preliminary November CET prediction, it would indeed be the coldest November since 1925, although you must remeber that i have a 0.5C margin of error, so a CET of 4.4C or less would make it a successfull forecast, i am currently unsure of whether to back it, i made the mistake of not backing my July CET forecast of 20C because of an unsuccessful June forecast, and was forced to quickly revise my forecast upward.

Edited October 5, 2006 by summer blizzard

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Temps taking a dip after mid-month:

SNOW-MAN2006

[Thundery wintry showers]

I went for 11.9C

This prediction was made on the 3rd, and you said it closed on the 4th...

[Dawlish]

Too late! Midnight passed 11 hours ago

Rats!

Sorry Dawlish, but unless a moderator overrules me, it is too late as i have mentioned this three times, to avoid further confusion next month, i mention it every day.

Double rats!!

[summer blizzard]

This prediction was made on the 3rd, and you said it closed on the 4th...

Sorry, i have changed that now, the context of your sentence confused me.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, even at this early stage it's looking like a warm month. Remarkably, MetCheck's own CET average managed to go UP overnight. With the start of the month, and the outlook for the next ten days or so, an outcome of at least 12C is starting to look very likely. We've already accumulated around one-third of a degree against the recent monthly mean.

[Guest Mike W]

Apologies if this the wrong thread but I remeber a post recently asking if their was an attemp by Manley or a possible attempt to to a provisional CET reconstruction of sorts for years pre 1659 to perhaps the Medieval Warm period. Can't remeber which thread it was in, but I beleive it alluded to the fact that Manley was researching years pre 1659 in order to extend the series to pre 1659 at least.

[Stratos Ferric]

Just checking September - October combinations. 2005 was the warmest on record, 2004 came in around 30th out of the 350 or so in the CET record (so well inside the top 10%). This year, given the record breaking September, October needs to come in at 11.7 to equal the record for the "diad". It's somewhere in the high 12s at present, with a warm week to come, so right now the recent pattern of record breaking autumnal warmth looks like continuing.

[summer blizzard]

Metcheck.com has the current CET at 12.7C, which is 2.3C above the monthly average and around 0.5C to 1C above the weekly average for the second week of October.

[Weather-history]

Just checking September - October combinations. 2005 was the warmest on record, 2004 came in around 30th out of the 350 or so in the CET record (so well inside the top 10%). This year, given the record breaking September, October needs to come in at 11.7 to equal the record for the "diad".

Mentioned this before, its actually 11.5 to equal it

Sept/Oct 2005 was 14.15C

Sept 2006 had a CET of 16.8 leaving Oct 2006 a CET of 11.5 to equal it. :lol:

As for record for Autumn warmth, I wouldn't count my chickens yet. Last autumn, we were well on our way to beating it by mid November and then that second half of November came and the record went out the window.

Autumn 1978 was well on the way to beating even right up to the 23rd of November and then those last few days of November 1978 came and it went right out the window.

Edited October 8, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Mentioned this before, its actually 11.5 to equal it

Sept/Oct 2005 was 14.15C

Sept 2006 had a CET of 16.8 leaving Oct 2006 a CET of 11.5 to equal it. :lol:

As for record for Autumn warmth, I wouldn't count my chickens yet. Last autumn, we were well on our way to beating it by mid November and then that second half of November came and the record went out the window.

Autumn 1978 was well on the way to beating even right up to the 23rd of November and then those last few days of November 1978 came and it went right out the window.

Completely agree re autumn, particularly given all the discussion elsewhere about the fruitlessness of LRFs.