Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[oldsnowywizard]

I find it quite amazing that Greenland still has predicted temps of below -40 in April. Does anyone have a month by month chart of the record low temperatures for some areas of Greenland? Looks like the cold areas are getting smaller and smaller now over the arctic, we should start to see ice levels reduce particularly around the Siberian sectors...

bad news at the moment, ice levels took a bit of a nose dive of the last few weeks with levels much lower than the same time last year. i would expect Greenland sea ice to increase with the cold predicted to build in this area this week. Baffin seems to be doing much better than this time last year though so good for the polar bears.. antartic ice levels seem to be increasing..does anyone know of any sites with similar charts for Antartica?

It looks like the charts have been tampered with.. there is no eveidence of the nose dive that was shown a week ago??

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

[Stratos Ferric]

SF

Interestingly the ice sheet was larger back in the 30s but temps were warmer in tha arctic back then than now.

BFTP

Which, if correct, rather suggests that the ice must have been MUCH thicker for the surface area not have retreated so markedly.

Out of interest, where's the temperature record from the 30s at the pole from. I'm surprised that there was extensive recording up there back then.

It looks like the charts have been tampered with.. there is no eveidence of the nose dive that was shown a week ago??

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

That chart only shows to end February. If memory serves me right the chart I was looking at showed through to mid March.

[parmenides3]

Old snowy wizard is right; the charts have been changed quite a bit in the past couple of days. This isn't a matter of tampering, but of reananalysis, I presume. Sometimes there are very big 'blips' when the satellite data goes loopy, but these are normally adjusted within a few days by the system they use to calculate the ice extent from the raw code. Note also that there is inherent unreliability in the sense that humans still need to 'interpret' parts of the data which are inconsistent with what has gone before. Over time, the corrections balance out, bit in the short term, it can look at bit weird.

This correction, though, looks like a wholesale adjustment of the data. As I don't know what has happened, I've emailed Bill Chapman, the site boss, to ask him. When he replies, I'll let you know. It probably won't be 'til after Easter, though.

:)P

[carinthian]

Latest Report and Analysis as 09/4/07

Variations in temperation and ice amounts do not directly change at this time of the year as with the days of the lengthening shadows in the Arctic. The sun stays low for a while longer yet. The main feature of this past season has been :

a) Lower than seasonal average temps in the higher Arctic Basin.

Late start to the Canadian ( freezing over ) now recovered with a prolonged late cold spell in the NE . Presently , Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay are recording over 1 million sq Km of Sea ice ( last year melt started earlier in this region ).

c) Lower than average sea ice formation again in waters closest to Northern Europe including the Baltic.

d) The extreme mildest of the European winter and lack of lowland snow cover.

e) Record breaking low temperatures recorded in parts of Greenland with ice bergs at times into the NW Iceland Fjords ( not seen here for years)Perhaps this can be explained by the sea dynamics of the Greenland Basin with fierce winds off the Greenland Glaciers producing induced currents in the sea with multi- year ice pushed the furthest south for 10 years along the East Greenland coast line.

What does this tells us ?

High Arctic more ice retention than normal with resultant lower temperatures.

Mid Arctic average ice formation with noticable variabilty in temperatures.

Lower Arctic , less ice formation continues the trend in the region.

Possible reverse trend of the erosion of multi- year ice this summer may increase the temperature differential more than normal at latitudes between 45N and 65 N . More summer storms and Euro heat ? Not sure really, but I will back a more traditional British Summer this year.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Latest Report and Analysis as 09/4/07

Not sure really, but I will back a more traditional British Summer this year.

C

Good update C....and your last sentence I fuuly concur

BFTP

[sundog]

im another one who backs a more normal summer aswell. i think it will be average at best imo and alot of people may end up being somewhat fooled with this weather we are having at the moment and are probably expecting a scorcher of a summer.

[oldsnowywizard]

does anyone know of any sites with similar charts for Antartica?

my vision must be going as i found some finally on the bottom of the cryosphere website..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...t.365.south.jpg

ice levels here are almost 500 thousand sq km above the mean!

i dont know if i can post this here..sure the mods can move or create maybe an antartic thread? it looks if anything as if there is a slight general trend up for southern hemisphere ice levels? the last two years have seen 16 millions sq miles..looking at the other charts available...what are the consequences? does GW not want to affect Antartica?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....area.south.jpg

i find it all quite interesting and would appreciate some views from others...

[jethro]

Duncan: good spot. The CT and MMAB charts show ice formation right across the Denmark Strait; the IWICOS/IOMASA and NATICE charts do not; this is a classic example of how different models interpret the data from the same satellite info. I would suggest that there is probably ice across the area, but probably not at sufficient concentrations (as a percentage of sea covered) to constitute an actual 'bridge'. I'll be happy to be proved wrong, though.

In the meantime, I spotted this paper: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL029016.shtml

In the conclusions, the abstract suggests that the Arctic currents may be shifting from a cyclonic back to an anticyclonic pattern. What are the implications of this, if it turns out to be correct?

:)P

After reading this, I had a dig around the net to see what I could find. Found the site below, haven't read it all yet but it seems to cover pretty much everything when it comes to cyclonic/anticyclonic and it's impacts on ice coverage.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/rich2952/rich2952.pdf

[John Cox]

Thanks for your update Carinthan.

I love your solid facts. It is worth more than 100 surmises.

Yes, we had such a mid winter and Europe too but from these details it really just affirms that Cold/Warm can be local (Global wise) and we can still get a cold winter if the dice falls correctly.

Edited April 10, 2007 by John Cox

[Gray-Wolf]

but I will back a more traditional British Summer this year.

C

On the back of the 'Traditional British' Winter we've just had and what looks to be another 'Traditional British' Spring that we are having right now????

The multi-year ice will continue it's ablation over summer. The 'Polynya's' area (to the back of the Bearing straights) will open up earlier and be more extensive as the melt progresses. The tundra will again be exposed to unseasonal high temps with further 'deep melt' building temp reserves to extend summer autumn 'dark surface' (no snow settling)

A more active 'cane season will throw Atlantic swells up into the high arctic fracturing more of the 'multi-year ice' leading to the edges being 'nibbled away'.

Has anyone any figures for the mechanical frequency of swells to destabilize the central ice areas?

Anywhoooo , I don't see anything like the rosy picture the rest are forcasting......I tend to think they are still using the 'old' figures and systems that used to drive our climate and are reluctant to 'modify' their thinking with what they have been Globally witnessing the past 6 years........

[carinthian]

On the back of the 'Traditional British' Winter we've just had and what looks to be another 'Traditional British' Spring that we are having right now????

The multi-year ice will continue it's ablation over summer. The 'Polynya's' area (to the back of the Bearing straights) will open up earlier and be more extensive as the melt progresses. The tundra will again be exposed to unseasonal high temps with further 'deep melt' building temp reserves to extend summer autumn 'dark surface' (no snow settling)

A more active 'cane season will throw Atlantic swells up into the high arctic fracturing more of the 'multi-year ice' leading to the edges being 'nibbled away'.

Has anyone any figures for the mechanical frequency of swells to destabilize the central ice areas?

Anywhoooo , I don't see anything like the rosy picture the rest are forcasting......I tend to think they are still using the 'old' figures and systems that used to drive our climate and are reluctant to 'modify' their thinking with what they have been Globally witnessing the past 6 years........

Hi Gray Wolf,

I, he, we , you ,they or want and desire. Meteorologically,one thing that I have learned over the years and past seasons has never to be obstinate, headstrong and refactory in thought. Concern yes, WILL, never !

Thanks for your concern in this subject.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Gray Wolf,

I, he, we , you ,they or want and desire. Meteorologically,one thing that I have learned over the years and past seasons has never to be obstinate, headstrong and refactory in thought. Concern yes, WILL, never !

Thanks for your concern in this subject.

C

Point taken C, I must not get carried away!

Maybe I have spent for too long watching 'mights' become 'haves' and 'not in the next thousand years' become 'over the next seventy years'. My life, so far, has shown me that we humans 'never say never' even when the end outcome seems enevitable to the rest.

[carinthian]

Point taken C, I must not get carried away!

Maybe I have spent for too long watching 'mights' become 'haves' and 'not in the next thousand years' become 'over the next seventy years'. My life, so far, has shown me that we humans 'never say never' even when the end outcome seems enevitable to the rest.

Hey, Gray - Wolf, I am with you on this. The human race ignores whats going on at their peril alright. Umpteen warnings against the ever mounting world pollution continues unchecked. Peremtory statements from the worlds super industrial countries, who,quite frankly don't give a toss about the pristine beautiful enviroment of the Arctic landscape. They make me mad and don't forget to give wind turbines a big hug, they seem to be unloved by selfish environmentalist, but thats another subject. Keep posting. Like your views!

C

[kippure]

Nice and cool. Watch how this starts to change over the next few weeks. Watch for ice flows coming on to land.

Link below.

Here

Edited April 13, 2007 by kippure

[carinthian]

Latest Report and Analysis as 09/4/07

Variations in temperation and ice amounts do not directly change at this time of the year as with the days of the lengthening shadows in the Arctic. The sun stays low for a while longer yet. The main feature of this past season has been :

a) Lower than seasonal average temps in the higher Arctic Basin.

:lol: Late start to the Canadian ( freezing over ) now recovered with a prolonged late cold spell in the NE . Presently , Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay are recording over 1 million sq Km of Sea ice ( last year melt started earlier in this region ).

c) Lower than average sea ice formation again in waters closest to Northern Europe including the Baltic.

d) The extreme mildest of the European winter and lack of lowland snow cover.

e) Record breaking low temperatures recorded in parts of Greenland with ice bergs at times into the NW Iceland Fjords ( not seen here for years)Perhaps this can be explained by the sea dynamics of the Greenland Basin with fierce winds off the Greenland Glaciers producing induced currents in the sea with multi- year ice pushed the furthest south for 10 years along the East Greenland coast line.

What does this tells us ?

High Arctic more ice retention than normal with resultant lower temperatures.

Mid Arctic average ice formation with noticable variabilty in temperatures.

Lower Arctic , less ice formation continues the trend in the region.

Possible reverse trend of the erosion of multi- year ice this summer may increase the temperature differential more than normal at latitudes between 45N and 65 N . More summer storms and Euro heat ? Not sure really, but I will back a more traditional British Summer this year.

C

Evening,

Further on from the above report, the very latest Icelandic coastal reports indicate that a broad front of this years ice formation is very close to the Northern coastal fringes, probable being pushed on by fast ice off the Eastern coast of Greenland. Could see some ice floes into the NW fiords soon. Currently, very low temperatures of -30C and below in parts of the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Northern Greenland.However,climate modelling forecasts are predicting + temperature Anomaly for the next 3 months in that region. In the meanwhile a balmy Europe continues on its merry course for a record warm year !

C

[kippure]

Evening,

Further on from the above report, the very latest Icelandic coastal reports indicate that a broad front of this years ice formation is very close to the Northern coastal fringes, probable being pushed on by fast ice off the Eastern coast of Greenland. Could see some ice floes into the NW fiords soon. Currently, very low temperatures of -30C and below in parts of the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Northern Greenland.However,climate modelling forecasts are predicting + temperature Anomaly for the next 3 months in that region. In the meanwhile a balmy Europe continues on its merry course for a record warm year !

C

Hi MrC

Is it usual for it to be so cold at this time of year. I thought tempetures would be around -10 -15 ?

Thats good for the longevitity of wintery ice..right?

[The PIT]

Ach doom and gloom we're all doomed.

First of all it was Nuclear power that was going to kill us, then it was the next ice age, then it was aids, then it was a meteorite, then it was and still is Global warming while in the meantime another dead cert was Bird Flu and it that fails theres good old ALQ. Oh I forgot good old Saddam was going to launch missile attacks against us.

Still a good idea to clean up anyway but don't get too alarmed by the media hype. The truth will be somewhat less than all the media frenzy.

[parmenides3]

Carinth: well done for keeping up this excellent thread. I've made a stab at looking at this year's sea ice prognosis here: http://fergusbrown.wordpress.com/2007/04/1...re-or-less-ice/

I was wondering what your opinions were?

:)P

[carinthian]

Carinth: well done for keeping up this excellent thread. I've made a stab at looking at this year's sea ice prognosis here: http://fergusbrown.wordpress.com/2007/04/1...re-or-less-ice/

I was wondering what your opinions were?

:)P

Hi P3

Is fergusbrown, your gooodself? If so an impressive prognosis. All I can add is from my previous report that the lower Arctic ice formation continues to show a year on shortfall in average ice amounts. Most notiable, as you have pointed out, is in the Barent Sea. Most of the Arctic rim records the same every year, so no change there. All I can repeat is that the present comparison against the average of the last 20 to 30 years or so is open to decrepancies to satellite measurements that added sea ice eddie formation of slush to its overall total ice coverage ( this in itself could amount to 5% of total coverage ).

Regards,

C

Hi MrC

Is it usual for it to be so cold at this time of year. I thought tempetures would be around -10 -15 ?

Thats good for the longevitity of wintery ice..right?

hI kippure,

Average temps at this time of year are around -20C in that particular location. So -30C to -35 C can be classified as very cold .

C

[parmenides3]

Thanks for your kind words, carinth: ideed it is; the shameful truth is out. I'll also point out that since I banged My URL in this thread, my hit count has gone up really fast; thanks to everyone who took a look, and a testament to the popularity of this thread.

The point about slush is an interesting one. This probably accounts for some of the discrepancies between what is seen on CT, the MMAB and the IWICOS/IOMASA sites; the data is being interpreted differently in term of what 'counts' as coverage. I know, though, that the canadian and Alaskan ice pages use first-hand feedback as well as satellite info, so there are checks and balances in place to allow for adjustment of the numbers.

I still haven't heard from Bill Chapman as to why the CT numbers changed so suddently overnight; I suspect the college is on Easter break, but I'll report back when he replies.

:)P

[oldsnowywizard]

thought i would post an update on the current Northenr hemisphere sea ice... based on cryosphere so ts and cs attached to the analysis of course!

overall condition - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

slightly lower levels than this time last year.

Arctic Basin - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.1.html

above the mean levels...just .. continued below 0 temps shown for at least the end of April, seems to be July time when levels start to drop..

Greenland sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

levels below the mean, but ice levels continuing to rise

Barent Sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.6.html

levels same as last year, at the moment sea ice levels increasing but still way below the mean.

Kara sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.7.html

levels below the mean and down on last year.

Laptev Sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.8.html

levels down on last year and down on the mean, looks like levels decreasing a month early..

East Siberian - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.9.html

Levels at the mean level

Chukchi sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.10.html

levels at the mean

Bearing Sea - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.2.html

levels below the mean and dropping.

Beaufort - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.11.html

levels at the mean

Canadian Archipelago - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.12.html

not so sure about this one as there is a massive increase during March. however levels above the mean.

Hudson Bay - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

levels up on last year but still below the mean.

Baffin - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.4.html

levels higher than last year but still below the mean...

Antarctic - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...t.365.south.jpg

almost 1 million sq km more ice than the same time last year, above the mean and continuing to rise....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Ach doom and gloom we're all doomed.

First of all it was Nuclear power that was going to kill us, then it was the next ice age, then it was aids, then it was a meteorite, then it was and still is Global warming while in the meantime another dead cert was Bird Flu and it that fails theres good old ALQ. Oh I forgot good old Saddam was going to launch missile attacks against us.

Still a good idea to clean up anyway but don't get too alarmed by the media hype. The truth will be somewhat less than all the media frenzy.

U forgot the Ebola flesh-eating virus..... <_<

[The PIT]

U forgot the Ebola flesh-eating virus..... <_<

Thats probably killed more Humans than bird flu.

Thanks oldsnowywizard for the reports.

[Gray-Wolf]

" The researchers at CU-Boulder's Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research also say there is a 57 percent chance the 2007 sea-ice minimum will be lower than the 2006 minimum of 2.27 million square miles, now the second lowest on record. There is a 70 percent chance the 2007 sea-ice minimum will rank within the lowest five years on record, according to Research Associate Sheldon Drobot of CCAR's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group in CU-Boulder's aerospace engineering sciences department.

Sea-ice extent is the area of an ocean covered by at least 15 percent ice. Declining sea ice in the Arctic is believed by researchers to be caused by higher winter temperatures due to greenhouse warming, said Drobot. Arctic sea ice has been declining since the late 1970s.

Researchers pay particular attention to September and March because they generally mark the annual minimum and maximum sea-ice extents respectively, said Drobot. On April 4, researchers from CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center reported the maximum extent of this year's March Arctic sea ice, 5.7 million square miles, was the second-lowest maximum on satellite record."

Well, lets see how we go on from here. I thought ice extents this winter were back to 'averages' but not so according to this!

[carinthian]

" The researchers at CU-Boulder's Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research also say there is a 57 percent chance the 2007 sea-ice minimum will be lower than the 2006 minimum of 2.27 million square miles, now the second lowest on record. There is a 70 percent chance the 2007 sea-ice minimum will rank within the lowest five years on record, according to Research Associate Sheldon Drobot of CCAR's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group in CU-Boulder's aerospace engineering sciences department.

Sea-ice extent is the area of an ocean covered by at least 15 percent ice. Declining sea ice in the Arctic is believed by researchers to be caused by higher winter temperatures due to greenhouse warming, said Drobot. Arctic sea ice has been declining since the late 1970s.

Researchers pay particular attention to September and March because they generally mark the annual minimum and maximum sea-ice extents respectively, said Drobot. On April 4, researchers from CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center reported the maximum extent of this year's March Arctic sea ice, 5.7 million square miles, was the second-lowest maximum on satellite record."

Well, lets see how we go on from here. I thought ice extents this winter were back to 'averages' but not so according to this!

Hi Gray Wolf,

Thanks for sending that report. Yep, plenty of American researches into climate change and more so gathering interest in the melting Arctic ice. Perhaps the worlds biggest contributor of warm gases may soon start to take the threat more seriously so. However, I am afraid big bucks are of more interest to the political power brokers.

The CU- Boulder's National Snow and Data Center paints a different pictures to results from to Cryosphere images from the Arctic Basin which have shown a + ice area anomaly from the 1970-2000 mean.

My inclination is towards a greater than average ice formation in the Basin this winter.

C