Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone see this report out today?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6218333.stm

West

It has been discussed in the Environment exchange thread

BFTP

[kippure]

Very nice

[Optimus Prime]

Anyone see this report out today?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6218333.stm

I wonder how many other "Huge Ice breaks" have occured in the past without being discovered.

[carinthian]

Afternoon,

Latest sounding up wind and further into the Lower/ Mid Arctic continue to show advection of increasingly colder air being pushed southwards into the Norwegian Sea. Moisture Levels between 700mb and 800mb are now inductive for Polar Low development between Jan Mayen and Svalbard. Expect some interesting charts over the coming days.

C

[Zerouali lives]

Afternoon,

Latest sounding up wind and further into the Lower/ Mid Arctic continue to show advection of increasingly colder air being pushed southwards into the Norwegian Sea. Moisture Levels between 700mb and 800mb are now inductive for Polar Low development between Jan Mayen and Svalbard. Expect some interesting charts over the coming days.

C

So do you think there's a chance of polar low development this week which could filter down on this Northerly and affect Northern Scotland???

[carinthian]

So do you think there's a chance of polar low development this week which could filter down on this Northerly and affect Northern Scotland???

Hi ,

The ingredients at source are very good for development. Advection of deeper cold air at all levels have to be maintained for several days. Your best bet is for a feed of very cold air to push out from Scandinavia to increase instability further in the lower layers of the Norwegian Sea. So the more NEly in the upper air component , there greater the chance of formation in your part of the world. Forecasting the ingredients are much easier than the movements. I remember in February 1969 tracking a series of very potent PLs into the British Isles and finding how difficult it was to forecast the exact locations for its impact. I know that John Holmes was on duty at Manchester Airport at that time, when 18 inches of snow fell in less than 6 hours. We had forecast the PL to deposit most of the snow in Liverpool Bay and N. Wales. Intensity and distribution of snowfall can vary greatly with-in just a few miles in PL situations. So, to answer your question the chance of PL development looks good but I would never forecast one !

Best of luck.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

If you log onto the Dundee Satalite imagery site you can see developoment forming due south of Svalbard at the moment (and lots more behind).

[carinthian]

Hi ,

The ingredients at source are very good for development. Advection of deeper cold air at all levels have to be maintained for several days. Your best bet is for a feed of very cold air to push out from Scandinavia to increase instability further in the lower layers of the Norwegian Sea. So the more NEly in the upper air component , there greater the chance of formation in your part of the world. Forecasting the ingredients are much easier than the movements. I remember in February 1969 tracking a series of very potent PLs into the British Isles and finding how difficult it was to forecast the exact locations for its impact. I know that John Holmes was on duty at Manchester Airport at that time, when 18 inches of snow fell in less than 6 hours. We had forecast the PL to deposit most of the snow in Liverpool Bay and N. Wales. Intensity and distribution of snowfall can vary greatly with-in just a few miles in PL situations. So, to answer your question the chance of PL development looks good but I would never forecast one !

Best of luck.

C

Evening all,

Polar Low now developing west of Tromso out into the Norwegian Sea with a very cold pool of Arctic Air in tow from Svalbard. Worth watching this fellow.

C

[noggin]

From the current model discussion thread I gather that this is a good thing!

[carinthian]

From the current model discussion thread I gather that this is a good thing!

hI Noggin,

Polar Low development has to have a feed of very cold air. That is evident at present. To have much affect further south the upper winds have to remain East of North. Distribution of pressure patterns are now on a knife edge as far as our winter is concerned.

Forecasting paths of PLs remains very difficult.

C

[Polar Continental]

Evening all,

Polar Low now developing west of Tromso out into the Norwegian Sea with a very cold pool of Arctic Air in tow from Svalbard. Worth watching this fellow.

C

Hi Carinthian, thanks for that.

Now that would be good, but as you say very difficult to predict their path.

It’s many years since a Polar Low made any impact here in the Midlands or anywhere in mainland UK for that matter, but I do remember one, which struck long ago during early spring in the 70s, I think it was early April 1973. It was an amazing snow event for so late in the season.

Wet snow set in around 10pm, just before I went to bed, I remember not think to much of it at the time, with winter being over, but the most amazing site was to greet me when I opened the curtains in the morning, there must have been a level foot of dry powder snow, the sky was deep and the sun was already up, I went outside to check the temperature and I was amazed to record –9c at 07:30am.

Later when I listened to the 7:55am forecast on Radio 4, the presenter mentioned a Polar low was responsible for the snow over northern and central areas of the country.

Almost unbelievable really for us here in Burton, as we never get much snow on northerly as a rule, but it just goes to show that a Polar low can produce heavy snowfall in areas normally well sheltered.

this could have been the chart

Paul

[cyclonic happiness]

Hi Carinthian, thanks for that.

Now that would be good, but as you say very difficult to predict their path.

It’s many years since a Polar Low made any impact here in the Midlands or anywhere in mainland UK for that matter, but I do remember one, which struck long ago during early spring in the 70s, I think it was early April 1973. It was an amazing snow event for so late in the season.

Wet snow set in around 10pm, just before I went to bed, I remember not think to much of it at the time, with winter being over, but the most amazing site was to greet me when I opened the curtains in the morning, there must have been a level foot of dry powder snow, the sky was deep and the sun was already up, I went outside to check the temperature and I was amazed to record –9c at 07:30am.

Later when I listened to the 7:55am forecast on Radio 4, the presenter mentioned a Polar low was responsible for the snow over northern and central areas of the country.

Almost unbelievable really for us here in Burton, as we never get much snow on northerly as a rule, but it just goes to show that a Polar low can produce heavy snowfall in areas normally well sheltered.

this could have been the chart

Paul

WOW!! doesn't that bear an uncanny "air" of the current charts???? mmmmmm?

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian, thanks for that.

Now that would be good, but as you say very difficult to predict their path.

It’s many years since a Polar Low made any impact here in the Midlands or anywhere in mainland UK for that matter, but I do remember one, which struck long ago during early spring in the 70s, I think it was early April 1973. It was an amazing snow event for so late in the season.

Wet snow set in around 10pm, just before I went to bed, I remember not think to much of it at the time, with winter being over, but the most amazing site was to greet me when I opened the curtains in the morning, there must have been a level foot of dry powder snow, the sky was deep and the sun was already up, I went outside to check the temperature and I was amazed to record –9c at 07:30am.

Later when I listened to the 7:55am forecast on Radio 4, the presenter mentioned a Polar low was responsible for the snow over northern and central areas of the country.

Almost unbelievable really for us here in Burton, as we never get much snow on northerly as a rule, but it just goes to show that a Polar low can produce heavy snowfall in areas normally well sheltered.

this could have been the chart

Paul

Evening Paul,

Yes, I think that was the date. I was on duty in Manchester and remember that Notts, Lincs and parts of Leicestershire got a pasting and low temps were the hallmark of passage of Polar Lows. The PL, referred to in Feb 1969 saw a max temp of only-7C with gusts of 40mph recored at Manchester Airport during the height of storm.

C

[osmposm]

quote name='Paul Carfoot' date='22 Jan 2007, 06:59 PM' post='894382']

It’s many years since a Polar Low made any impact here in the Midlands or anywhere in mainland UK for that matter, but I do remember one, which struck long ago during early spring in the 70s, I think it was early April 1973. It was an amazing snow event for so late in the season.

Edited January 22, 2007 by osmposm

[Polar Continental]

Evening Paul,

Yes, I think that was the date. I was on duty in Manchester and remember that Notts, Lincs and parts of Leicestershire got a pasting and low temps were the hallmark of passage of Polar Lows. The PL, referred to in Feb 1969 saw a max temp of only-7C with gusts of 40mph recored at Manchester Airport during the height of storm.

C

Paul - I, too, remember a heavy overnight snowfall in early April in the 70s; even here in SW London we had several inches...in fact I took a photo of it lying over flowering daffodils, which I will try and find.

However, although the chart you show is certainly a cold setup, I don't think that one produced any snow - for us, anyway. I think I'm right in saying the one I remember was 8-9 April 1975, not '73.

It's on this useful snow data site http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/bonacina.html, and is identifiable from the Hampstead data on Philip Eden's http://www.weather-uk.com/hampstead/data.htm. I also have a reference from an article I read long ago saying up to 15cm lay widely in the south and east on 9/4/75.

Have a look at the charts - it seems to have been an offshoot of a bigger low that formed near Svalbard, and that sent it sailing down the North Sea:

Hi Carinthian,

Good god a 40pmh wind accompanied with air temperatures of –7c, now that would feel dam cold.

Hi Osmposm, regarding the early 70’s, April snowfall, thanks, very interesting, wasn’t sure of the exact date, but your charts are certainly much more potent and do indeed look much more like that event I described above, interesting link, enjoying looking through that data, although your other link isn't working.

Paul

[osmposm]

enjoying looking through that data, although your other link isn't working.

Sorry, Paul, I think I may have typed it wrong originally (though it's now edited) - anyway, it's http://www.weather-uk.com/hampstead/data.htm. Some useful data - already goes back to 1955, and more will, I think, be uploaded in due course.

Ossie

Edited January 23, 2007 by osmposm

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hi Carinthian.

Any chance of an update of ice coverage ??

How does it measure up compared to the last 5-6 yrs. Has a trend emerged or is it cyclical ??

pm if poss' as I may miss the post/reply.

Cheers Mate

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian.

Any chance of an update of ice coverage ??

How does it measure up compared to the last 5-6 yrs. Has a trend emerged or is it cyclical ??

pm if poss' as I may miss the post/reply.

Cheers Mate

Morning TONA,

Have been away for a few weeks. Will post an update later today when I have had chance to study latest ice data.

Best Regards,

C

Morning TONA,

Have been away for a few weeks. Will post an update later today when I have had chance to study latest ice data.

Best Regards,

C

As a matter of interest, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, currently recording its coldest spell of the winter. Pity this flow is going to miss us. Looks like parts of Scandinavia will get cold over the weekend.

C

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian.

Any chance of an update of ice coverage ??

How does it measure up compared to the last 5-6 yrs. Has a trend emerged or is it cyclical ??

pm if poss' as I may miss the post/reply.

Cheers Mate

Afternoon all,

LATEST ARCTIC REPORT AS OF 25/01/07

The sun will become visible again by Mid February breaking the long Polar night in Svalbard. This usually corresponds with the coldest time of year for our Friends in the North. Currently -25C there at the moment, thats some way below normal. Total current Northern Hemisphere ice coverage is near 14 million sq Km , that being a good bench mark for so called long term average. The present rate of growth should see this coverage expand some more and I am confident that this season will show the largest amount of Arctic Ice for 6 years or more. Siberian temperatures have been above normal so far this winter, whereas Arctic Basin has been below normal. Good signs that AO will transfer slowly into -ve mode with a build of very cold air at the Pole to continue. This usually transpires cold weather towards Europe with a much colder end to Winter or start to Spring more than likely nearer to our shores now that deep- mid -Winter has passed on by without hardly a frost or snowflake.

C

[Rollo]

Afternoon all,

LATEST ARCTIC REPORT AS OF 25/01/07

The sun will become visible again by Mid February breaking the long Polar night in Svalbard. This usually corresponds with the coldest time of year for our Friends in the North. Currently -25C there at the moment, thats some way below normal. Total current Northern Hemisphere ice coverage is near 14 million sq Km , that being a good bench mark for so called long term average. The present rate of growth should see this coverage expand some more and I am confident that this season will show the largest amount of Arctic Ice for 6 years or more. Siberian temperatures have been above normal so far this winter, whereas Arctic Basin has been below normal. Good signs that AO will transfer slowly into -ve mode with a build of very cold air at the Pole to continue. This usually transpires cold weather towards Europe with a much colder end to Winter or start to Spring more than likely nearer to our shores now that deep- mid -Winter has passed on by without hardly a frost or snowflake.

C

Hi carinthian, this has been such a boring winter (for me anyway)thus far-I have played far more golf than the norm for the North East at this time of year that I would take any proper cold spell be it 2 days or 22. I believe most posters here find winter their favourite season and I reckon SAD must have a fairly strong hold at the moment. Even John Cox is absent at present. Your posts cheers us up and with my mind harping back to cold spells of old your news about the possibility of something more wintry comes as a breath of fresh (icy)air,regards Rollo.

[carinthian]

Hi carinthian, this has been such a boring winter (for me anyway)thus far-I have played far more golf than the norm for the North East at this time of year that I would take any proper cold spell be it 2 days or 22. I believe most posters here find winter their favourite season and I reckon SAD must have a fairly strong hold at the moment. Even John Cox is absent at present. Your posts cheers us up and with my mind harping back to cold spells of old your news about the possibility of something more wintry comes as a breath of fresh (icy)air,regards Rollo.

Hi Rollo,

Even John (the Hibernian ) will not spend all this winter in torpid state. This inactive mild winter ( from a snowfall and frigid state of view ) will have a sting in its tail, possibily with a ferocious character.

C

[beng]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

Hi Carinthian,

What do you make of the satellite image of ice extent - seems to show an ice bridge forming between Greenland/Iceland - which would be quite a bizarre thing to happen in such a mild winter?

Many thanks

Ben

[wellington boot]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

Hi Carinthian,

What do you make of the satellite image of ice extent - seems to show an ice bridge forming between Greenland/Iceland - which would be quite a bizarre thing to happen in such a mild winter?

Many thanks

Ben

Remember beng, this winter has not been such a mild one all over the northern hemisphere. I'm not sure how it's been over in iceland, but with the polar vortex over greenland for so long, sweeping icy greenland air over iceland, id have thought it must have been pretty cold over there this winter. Furthermore, observe on the ice coverage map that the different colours represent percentage of the sea frozen, and between greenland and iceland the colour is green, signifying that about 30% of the sea is frozen there. So an ice bridge could take a while

[carinthian]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

Hi Carinthian,

What do you make of the satellite image of ice extent - seems to show an ice bridge forming between Greenland/Iceland - which would be quite a bizarre thing to happen in such a mild winter?

Many thanks

Ben

Hi Ben,

Still awaiting latest Icelandic Coastal Guard report. The fragmented polar ice edge does appear to be about 25 km off the NW Horn. That is very close for late January. I know in the Spring of 1968 and the period in late February of 1969 an ice bridge was formed. The close range shots from air reconnaissance with be able to report the concentration in the Straits. Will keep updated when I obtain the latest picture.

C

[carinthian]

Afternoon all,

LATEST ARCTIC REPORT AS OF 25/01/07

The sun will become visible again by Mid February breaking the long Polar night in Svalbard. This usually corresponds with the coldest time of year for our Friends in the North. Currently -25C there at the moment, thats some way below normal. Total current Northern Hemisphere ice coverage is near 14 million sq Km , that being a good bench mark for so called long term average. The present rate of growth should see this coverage expand some more and I am confident that this season will show the largest amount of Arctic Ice for 6 years or more. Siberian temperatures have been above normal so far this winter, whereas Arctic Basin has been below normal. Good signs that AO will transfer slowly into -ve mode with a build of very cold air at the Pole to continue. This usually transpires cold weather towards Europe with a much colder end to Winter or start to Spring more than likely nearer to our shores now that deep- mid -Winter has passed on by without hardly a frost or snowflake.

C

Hello,

Todays Polar View charts show the first seasonal growth of sea ice in the Gulf of Bothnia. A prolonged cold spell at this time of year can lead to the rapid formation of fast ice during February. If the predicted cold spell becomes established ,a hard winter is thought to have occurred if over 50 % of the Baltic Sea is covered in ice by early March.

C