Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[Stratos Ferric]

Evening,

Interesting developments now taking place. The pump of abnormal warmth into European Russian is coming up against a developing cold pool in the West Siberian/ Ob Basin. Heavy snowfalls in this area and the Ural Range at about 60E. Could this just be the trigger to challenge the advance of the zonal Atlantic jet wind field flooding across Europe ?

C

It's certainly the case that the global direction on temp anomalies has been downwards for a week or two now; whilst the real cold is in Antarctica, central Asia and Canada have also both been cooling. This can't do any harm for developments further west, but as the whole system moves W-E I fear we need to look upstream for real change, rather than downstream. Yes, in theory the system could develop E (and at this time of year Siberia will cool whether or not), but the main problem we have at present is the northerliness of the jet beyond the meridian. If the jet gets kicked south then I'd start to believe a surface pool could build up, but I wouldn't be banking on it, certainly not this early in the winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Evening,

Interesting developments now taking place. The pump of abnormal warmth into European Russian is coming up against a developing cold pool in the West Siberian/ Ob Basin. Heavy snowfalls in this area and the Ural Range at about 60E. Could this just be the trigger to challenge the advance of the zonal Atlantic jet wind field flooding across Europe ?

C

Hi Carinthian

This is as a result of the retrograde HP from Alaska and Far east Siberia. I agree with SF in that it will take about 1 month to arrive and really affect/influence our winter. The general pattern/circulation is W to E but retrograde does occur and we are seeing that and heavy snowfall in the region you mention will enhance its progress. Look East around New Year, although there are no guarantees I am very satisfied with the way things are going...so far so good. Like I said on the model discussion it will be this HP that will influence us and not a GHP.

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi Carinthian

This is as a result of the retrograde HP from Alaska and Far east Siberia. I agree with SF in that it will take about 1 month to arrive and really affect/influence our winter. The general pattern/circulation is W to E but retrograde does occur and we are seeing that and heavy snowfall in the region you mention will enhance its progress. Look East around New Year, although there are no guarantees I am very satisfied with the way things are going...so far so good. Like I said on the model discussion it will be this HP that will influence us and not a GHP.

BFTP

I shall certainly dof my cap, and not be alone I suspect, if this does come off. I think we'd need a few other things to fsall into line as well, particularly a much less energy laden Atlantic - losing the immense heat store in there in short order is probably asking too much; for that reason I'd expect the jet to keep holding sway well into the new year. However, things have changed markedly and suddenly before now, and they will do again.

[carinthian]

Evening,

Interesting developments now taking place. The pump of abnormal warmth into European Russian is coming up against a developing cold pool in the West Siberian/ Ob Basin. Heavy snowfalls in this area and the Ural Range at about 60E. Could this just be the trigger to challenge the advance of the zonal Atlantic jet wind field flooding across Europe ?

C

Hi,

Funny how things can flip around in a matter of days. Kara Sea Arctic stations and land reports in the West Siberian Basin were recording middle temps of +10c above normal and are today widely recording -10c below this normal. Latest images today are showing the young ice is in a fast state of re- freezing. Also note the North Greenland temps are on the slide again, down to -40C last night at the Nord Station, which is also recording its coldest first week in December on record( middle currently -34.7 C) thats about 6C below the December normal.

What I am reporting indicates there is still potential for very low temperatures in todays (so called GW era). It is strange that Greenland recorded its coldest decade over the past 50 years in the 1990s. Now theres food for thought!

C

[carinthian]

Yes, Greenland did record it's coldest decade in the 90s - but of course a cold Greenland means a mild Western Europe and the 90s generally saw strongly +ve NAO winters.

Im afraid that was so. Occasionally we can get a link up of the Arctic highs from Greenland to Siberia.

C

[John Cox]

Hi,

It is strange that Greenland recorded its coldest decade over the past 50 years in the 1990s. Now theres food for thought!

C

Hi Carinthian,

Great report as usual and with such detail.

I know 99% of people on nw will disagree with me but I think GW has nothing to do with our mild winters over the last 15 years. I dont know what the reason is but when you see such cold extremes and say the very cold winters over southern Europe then I really do think something else is going on. For this reason I will never give up on us having a really cold winter. I dont wish to go off topic but your reports do really raise more questions than answers.

Edited December 4, 2006 by John Cox

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian,

Great report as usual and with such detail.

I know 99% of people on nw will disagree with me but I think GW has nothing to do with our mild winters over the last 15 years. I dont know what the reason is but when you see such cold extremes and say the very cold winters over southern Europe then I really do think something else is going on. For this reason I will never give up on us having a really cold winter. I dont wish to go off topic but your reports do really raise more questions than answers.

Hi John,

Off topic here a bit, but many more AWS give us a wider view to what is going on ,particularly in the most remote parts of our precious plant. Certainly urbanisation stations are showing the greatest increase , which in its self could lead us down the wrong path. Last winter produced some remarkable cold spells in Euro/Asia with temps of -60C in Western Siberia and nearer to home in my part of Austria the coldest and snowiest winter for 2 decades. Even in the recording breaking warmth of this Autumn over much of Europe, including Scandinavia a new November record low was recorded on the Greenland Summit of -60.2 C.

C

[John Cox]

Hi John,

Off topic here a bit, but many more AWS give us a wider view to what is going on ,particularly in the most remote parts of our precious plant. Certainly urbanisation stations are showing the greatest increase , which in its self could lead us down the wrong path. Last winter produced some remarkable cold spells in Euro/Asia with temps of -60C in Western Siberia and nearer to home in my part of Austria the coldest and snowiest winter for 2 decades. Even in the recording breaking warmth of this Autumn over much of Europe, including Scandinavia a new November record low was recorded on the Greenland Summit of -60.2 C.

C

Thanks C,

I just love the stats you have at will.

Yes, for another topic. it just makes you wonder.

Keep up the good work.

[frozencanals]

Hi All

Nice to see more normal temps returning in Scandinavia, after the recent warming, although it is still hovering too close to 0 degrees rather than down around the -10s where it should be. The pay off is that the snow stocks are recovering well across all of the Lappish territories a good 10 - 15 cm falling in the last couple of days and lots more forecast and most of the lakes have re-frozen, time to get the snow scooters out again... hopefully this time the snow will stay put, and eventually send some our way..

Cheers

FC

[John Cox]

Hi Frozencanals,

Even my favourite webcam site has had renewed snow fall in these regions.

It had all but melted a few days ago.

http://195.196.36.242/view/view.shtml

[Red Raven]

Wish i could say the same for the Dolomites - its still looking dire, and LRFs dont offer much hope.

[carinthian]

Hi,

Funny how things can flip around in a matter of days. Kara Sea Arctic stations and land reports in the West Siberian Basin were recording middle temps of +10c above normal and are today widely recording -10c below this normal. Latest images today are showing the young ice is in a fast state of re- freezing. Also note the North Greenland temps are on the slide again, down to -40C last night at the Nord Station, which is also recording its coldest first week in December on record( middle currently -34.7 C) thats about 6C below the December normal.

What I am reporting indicates there is still potential for very low temperatures in todays (so called GW era). It is strange that Greenland recorded its coldest decade over the past 50 years in the 1990s. Now theres food for thought!

C

Morning,

Some better news from the Arctic today. The Kara Sea area is recording some impressive cold over recent days (generally now between -5 to -10C below middle temps) as a result with a fast re-formation of young ice now covering much of this area. The Cyrosphere ice graph charts take a few days to pick up this fast freezing over. All Hudson Bay showing some fast formation, particularly on the Western Bay.

Hope that lifts the spirits a little !

C

[oldsnowywizard]

it does Carinth... looks to be some extreme cold pooling potential in Siberia around the 12th of Dec... could we see some records going here?

[frozencanals]

Hi All

I knew I should have kept my digital mouth shut, I've just seen that the Finnish weather forecasters have changed the out outlook again for the next 4 days with rising temps to +4 degrees in the Artic Circle and they are forecasting rain again. I know you should not take one run as gospel but they have been pretty good at foracasting this period of weather so far.. lets pray they switch it back again after the next run.

I wonder what models they use..

Cheers

FC

[carinthian]

Hi,

After a "warm " end to November, Greenland temps have taken a tumble during the first week of the winter season. Middle temps widely between -2C and -6C below normal. The very latest sea ice charts now indicate that the concentration of ice is 5/10th on the outer edge of the polar edge and is 45 NM from the Iceland coastline with fast ice along the Greenland coast being pushed southwestwards along the Denmark Strait. Young ice has reached 66N, just south of the Arctic Circle in the same area. Sighting of large icebergs have been reported in the main ice pack further north towards Scoresby Sound. Further north into the Greenland Basin there is a drift eastwards of the main ice pack towards Svalbard.

C

[WhiteFox]

All Hudson Bay showing some fast formation, particularly on the Western Bay.

Hope that lifts the spirits a little !

C

I think the recent extreme cold in Canada would help the ice to form fairly quickly; there were rivers starting to freeze in Canada last week!

[Mr Maunder]

Time for another Damocles image - showing the current ice extent with an SST overlay.

This shows quite clearly the areas with a potential for some ice development. Not surprisingly, given recent conditions, Canada, particularly Hudson bay, is now looking good in this respect.

In addition, the Chukchi and Baring Seas are showing signs that they are finally getting to the point where they may get up to more normal levels.

Nearer home there looks to be the potential for some ice growth in both Barents and Greenland seas.

Of course it all depends on conditions being favourable, but there must be some cause for optimism given the sea temperatures.

MM

[Guest Viking141]

Excellent stuff as always Carinth. Things looking a lot better now. Excellent graphic Mr Maunder.

[trevw]

I take it given the sst chart that was posted the other day that either cryosphere today has blown a fuse or someone is out there doing nuclear testing on the sea ice or something?

Trev

[Mr Maunder]

I take it given the sst chart that was posted the other day that either cryosphere today has blown a fuse or someone is out there doing nuclear testing on the sea ice or something?

Trev

Trev,

It's always a few days behind the times - just watch the graph rise - as the Canadian ice is now growing quite nicely!

MM

[carinthian]

LATEST REPORT 28/11/06

Evening all,

Following on from last weeks above report . The latest pictures shows there has actually been a small reduction is in the amount of sea ice formation. The biggest losses continue in the "warmth affected " European zones with even ice reduction into the Mid -Arctic (80N). Heavy snowfall continues to affect the NE Tundra of Siberia but with a rise in temperatures here. Above average temperatures contiue to affect a large zone from The Greenland Basin, to The Barent through to the North Russian Islands. The cold Yukon high has forced a much colder pool of Arctic Air into Alberta and BC, whilst a shorter wave trough has allowed a limited push into Hudson Bay. Ice formation continues to grow in the Foxes Basin but not in Hudson. Tidal forces still holding the main polar ice edge of parts of the Alaskan coastline.

Signs of encouragement for NW Europe to turn much colder by the middle of December.

a) The failure of the long wave upper trough to material in NE Canada in association to the Polar Vortex.

:unsure: Weak positive AO during the prolonged European "Tm" spell.

From these two indicators I will be looking for a steady rise in pressure in Eastern Greenland and a shift of the PV back towards the North European Arctic Region.

C

LATEST REPORT 12/12/06

Evening all,

Two weeks on from the above report and a slight increase in Arctic sea ice now taking place compared to this time last year. Fast growth of young ice in the East Canadian/ West Greenland sectors, particularly up in Baffin Bay. The feed of very cold air continues to push out from Northern Greenland into the Davis Straits on the N. American side and the Greenland Basin on the European side. Widely, averages temperatures in lowland Greenland remain below the seasonal normal. The European warm flow of Tm/Tc continues to hold back any ice formation in the Barent Sea with Arctic Europe showing some amazing positive anomaly temps, especially in the White Sea and up into the North Barent.

C

I

[phil nw.]

Just thought i would post this ,

It highlights what Corinthian has said about the abnormally warm temps. in N.E. Europe and its Arctic seas.

[carinthian]

Just thought i would post this ,

It highlights what Corinthian has said about the abnormally warm temps. in N.E. Europe and its Arctic seas.

Great grathics on that chart Phil, one hell of a demarkation at the Urals. Have never seen such a snowless Europe including Euro/Asia coming Mid-December.

C

[frozen_north]

Its good to see Hudson Bay starting to come on. You should see the sea ice indicator on the graph head up vertically over the next couple of days as their is a slight lag time between the charts and the graph. Expect us to catch up with last year soon.

[PersianPaladin]

Wow. Look at all these mild anamolies: -

http://www.bridford.metsite.com/synNNWWarctis131206.gif