Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[carinthian]

I note from the cryosphere site the develpoment of a large hole (polyna) to the north of Franz Jozef in the arctic basin.

This is an unusual event in itself but I thought such a development would be impossible at this time of the year. It may just be a a quirk of the cryosphere system but I'd be interested to hear anyones views.

Hi Jack,

No quirk of the cryosphere system. It is there for real and clearly seen from satellite. I have never seen polyna development to the north of the islands, even in summer. This location is about as far as the North Atlantic warmth drift goes into the basin and is only 1000Km from the North Pole. So much of the water will be fresh as should readily freeze over. As Jackone posted the temperatures in the North Barent and Mid- Arctic region of the Kara Sea have been " warm" for the past 2 weeks and combined as I tend to think it could be an atmospheric thermic possibility local to the Island topography and wind conditions.

C

[carinthian]

lATEST REPORT

Negative temperatures have returned to the North Barent with widespread snowfall, however temperatures are still way above the late November norm. Sea ice levels have even fallen in the N. Barent and even in the Kara Sea(see the above post) Overall the Northern Hemisphere ice levels are on a parr to last year. Cold air advection this week should soon kick start the Hudson Bay ice formation with Foxe Basin first and then into Hudson Strait, however most of the Bay below 60N should remain ice free for a few more weeks.

C

LATEST REPORT 28/11/06

Evening all,

Following on from last weeks above report . The latest pictures shows there has actually been a small reduction is in the amount of sea ice formation. The biggest losses continue in the "warmth affected " European zones with even ice reduction into the Mid -Arctic (80N). Heavy snowfall continues to affect the NE Tundra of Siberia but with a rise in temperatures here. Above average temperatures contiue to affect a large zone from The Greenland Basin, to The Barent through to the North Russian Islands. The cold Yukon high has forced a much colder pool of Arctic Air into Alberta and BC, whilst a shorter wave trough has allowed a limited push into Hudson Bay. Ice formation continues to grow in the Foxes Basin but not in Hudson. Tidal forces still holding the main polar ice edge of parts of the Alaskan coastline.

Signs of encouragement for NW Europe to turn much colder by the middle of December.

a) The failure of the long wave upper trough to material in NE Canada in association to the Polar Vortex.

:blink: Weak positive AO during the prolonged European "Tm" spell.

From these two indicators I will be looking for a steady rise in pressure in Eastern Greenland and a shift of the PV back towards the North European Arctic Region.

C

[carinthian]

LATEST REPORT 28/11/06

Evening all,

Following on from last weeks above report . The latest pictures shows there has actually been a small reduction is in the amount of sea ice formation. The biggest losses continue in the "warmth affected " European zones with even ice reduction into the Mid -Arctic (80N). Heavy snowfall continues to affect the NE Tundra of Siberia but with a rise in temperatures here. Above average temperatures contiue to affect a large zone from The Greenland Basin, to The Barent through to the North Russian Islands. The cold Yukon high has forced a much colder pool of Arctic Air into Alberta and BC, whilst a shorter wave trough has allowed a limited push into Hudson Bay. Ice formation continues to grow in the Foxes Basin but not in Hudson. Tidal forces still holding the main polar ice edge of parts of the Alaskan coastline.

Signs of encouragement for NW Europe to turn much colder by the middle of December.

a) The failure of the long wave upper trough to material in NE Canada in association to the Polar Vortex.

:lol: Weak positive AO during the prolonged European "Tm" spell.

From these two indicators I will be looking for a steady rise in pressure in Eastern Greenland and a shift of the PV back towards the North European Arctic Region.

C

Morning,

Further to yesterdays report, there are now good signs of an Arctic build of pressure soon to take hold with a strong bridge from the North Siberian anticyclone. Hopefully, the prolonged" warmth" should soon be reversed in the North Barent and even the Euro/ Asian Mid Arctic region.

C

[carinthian]

Morning Carinthian

Yes - good signs that the recent set-back for these regions is coming to an end. Lets hope that the signals for the AO to dip negative are consolidated to bring about this much anticipated pattern change in December.

Tamara

Morning Tamara,

Good signals indeed. Another good sign Tamara is the lack of the deep trough in NE Canada usually associated with the Arctic PV. I f we can get the height rises to the East of Greenland a split in the PV is likely with the more domination to our NE and at best the polar trough anchored over our shores. Would be ideal !

C

[Gray-Wolf]

Is it possible to gauge how far under the ice in the Barent sea the current ablation reaches (i.e. is there 'basal thining' beyond the Polynya)?I only wonder as the continuation of our TM weather (and associated storms) will lead to swells impacting this region and possibly weakening the area of the Polynya further (and shattered ice, I would imagine, melts faster than solid pack).

If we are to rely on Northerly incursions later on in late Dec/Jan then we don't need them travelling over(and being modified by) open water.

I'm sure someone out there can reasure me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is it possible to gauge how far under the ice in the Barent sea the current ablation reaches (i.e. is there 'basal thining' beyond the Polynya)?I only wonder as the continuation of our TM weather (and associated storms) will lead to swells impacting this region and possibly weakening the area of the Polynya further (and shattered ice, I would imagine, melts faster than solid pack).

If we are to rely on Northerly incursions later on in late Dec/Jan then we don't need them travelling over(and being modified by) open water.

I'm sure someone out there can reasure me.

Don't know GW but I predict that our cold blasts will be from the east and not the north, so hopefully it won't matter too much.

BFTP

[carinthian]

Hi Jack,

No quirk of the cryosphere system. It is there for real and clearly seen from satellite. I have never seen polyna development to the north of the islands, even in summer. This location is about as far as the North Atlantic warmth drift goes into the basin and is only 1000Km from the North Pole. So much of the water will be fresh as should readily freeze over. As Jackone posted the temperatures in the North Barent and Mid- Arctic region of the Kara Sea have been " warm" for the past 2 weeks and combined as I tend to think it could be an atmospheric thermic possibility local to the Island topography and wind conditions.

C

The polyna formation to the north of Franz Josef Land group of islands has now disappeared. Lighter winds, rise in air pressure and a suface feed of much colder air is allowing the re-generation of young ice and the "filling in again of multi -year ice. The hole has gone and may never return.

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi !

If things go to plan it will be short northerlies of increasing potency and then the big easterly :lol:

Tamara

Tamara

Transitory ridges but generally moblie/zonal. Don't see any real northerly shots as there is unlikely to be an Atlantic block.....look to the NE!

BFTP

[D KARLSON]

Looking at the cryosphere, hudson bay still has not frozen over does anyone know what time it froze last year, those polar bears must be suffering

[beng]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH05/USA...2005358_usa.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCH05/USA...2005360_usa.gif

26th Dec 2005 was when Hudson Bay finally completely froze over last year - that was pretty late I'd think relative to the norm - but i might be wrong.

Edited December 1, 2006 by beng

[Gray-Wolf]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....timeseries.jpg It looks like this year will be the first recorded without going into the positive anomaly side of the graph. Is this significant?

[Stratos Ferric]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....timeseries.jpg It looks like this year will be the first recorded without going into the positive anomaly side of the graph. Is this significant?

Not in any sense other than that it reveals a slow but steady decline in the area of ice.

[parmenides3]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....timeseries.jpg It looks like this year will be the first recorded without going into the positive anomaly side of the graph. Is this significant?

It is possible, but variability is so great in the Arctic, that it is more likely that, at some stage, we will hit positive anomalies. The key is to look at the seasonal maximum and compare it to previous years, looking for a trend, rather than consider isolated warm or cold 'snaps'. If this Winter doesn't manage to exceed the long-term average at any date, it will show, as S-F says, a continuation of the long-term decline in sea-ice levels year on year.

:)P

[Polar Continental]

Looking at the cryosphere, hudson bay still has not frozen over does anyone know what time it froze last year, those polar bears must be suffering :blush:

Hi all,

Looking at the latest Arctic images, and comparing with mid November, it seems there has been a slight decline of ice around the Bering sea, except possibly the extreme western edge, looking towards Baffin Bay an improvement there, especially down the western side, Hudson Bay has only just started to ice over at the extreme northern edge.

Paul

Mid Nov............................ now

Edited December 2, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[carinthian]

The extent of the record European warmth throughout November is taking a terrible toll on the sea ice formation in the continents Arctic Rim sectors. The Barent and Kara Sea are actually recording less ice now than at the end of October. A real worry now. Changes will have to take foot by Mid-December.

C

[Polar Continental]

The extent of the record European warmth throughout November is taking a terrible toll on the sea ice formation in the continents Arctic Rim sectors. The Barent and Kara Sea are actually recording less ice now than at the end of October. A real worry now. Changes will have to take foot by Mid-December.

C

Hi carinthian, yes we do need a pattern change quickly now, but unfortunately still no signs of it yet. Let us hope it begins to show on the models soon. Fingers crossed.

Paul

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi all,

Looking at the latest Arctic images, and comparing with mid November, it seems there has been a slight decline of ice around the Bering sea, except possibly the extreme western edge, looking towards Baffin Bay an improvement there, especially down the western side, Hudson Bay has only just started to ice over at the extreme northern edge.

Paul

Mid Nov............................ now

Apart from the magician's trick (the same principle is used by The Hard Rock café, by the way, to make you think you're getting a bigger portion than you actually are) of making the image on the RHS larger, that view has opened my eyes to something I hadn't thought of before, or noticed, and it might be quite fundamental to our winters.

The polar ice mass is assymetrical. The continental block of America / Asia keeps warm waters away from the pole around 170w. Around our longitude the ocean is open. Obviously this has always been the case, but in our warming world, with warmer ocean currents, I suspect the ice shelf is eroding faster close to the UK than is the case on the other side of the pole.

Why does this matter? Well, all the discussion on this site regarding the polar vortex, and the assumption that we could get cold pulses impacting the UK, might be slightly flawed. In effect, the ring formed around the pole by the PFJ is going to be subtended, perhaps by 5-10 degrees, north of the UK, to reflect the location of the frozen surface below.

This might be one of the big keys in answering why, despite some otherwise (apparently) favourable indicators, the outcome is still "too" warm.

Thoughts?

[D KARLSON]

The extent of the record European warmth throughout November is taking a terrible toll on the sea ice formation in the continents Arctic Rim sectors. The Barent and Kara Sea are actually recording less ice now than at the end of October. A real worry now. Changes will have to take foot by Mid-December.

C

Must agree i noticed the sudden decline in ice in these areas too but as you said before things can change quickly up there given the right synoptics, i have a feeling the current synoptics will blow themselves out and hopefully give way to something much colder, well heres hoping :blush: !!!!!!!

[carinthian]

Must agree i noticed the sudden decline in ice in these areas too but as you said before things can change quickly up there given the right synoptics, i have a feeling the current synoptics will blow themselves out and hopefully give way to something much colder, well heres hoping :blush: !!!!!!!

D,

Hope your feelings are correct. The decline in November in these waters is of young ice formation and can easily reform again with the right synoptics as you point out. The limit of the multi-year pack ice has not been affected yet, but the southern limit of this pack and its associated drift ice during the rest of the winter months may well again be showing a retrogradation.

However, in the winter of 1975/76 there was less sea ice in the waters 20W and 20E than at present and this was only 7 years after the pack ice limit went as far south for near 50 years ( Horn of Iveland to Jan Mayen )

C

[frozen_north]

Well with the cold set to return to round about Svalbard the ice should start to grow again. The ice in Hudson bay is starting to grow rapidly due to the cold pooling over Canada right now. It looks like the ice pack is going to wxpand rapidly over the next month.

[D KARLSON]

Just had a quick look through synoptic charts for the 30s and something stands out ,because alhough this decade was regarded as mild we still had spells of very cold weather with easterlies on occasions ,and although the winters were mild here the siberian high was quite dominant over europe at times, something that seems completely lacking in recent times.

It seems as though were in the middle of a longer term pattern change the siberian high almost non existent, with azores and bartlett highs the main players, we simply cant expect winter to make its mark without the right synoptics , but you never know when the pattern will flip thats the key !!!!!!

[carinthian]

Just had a quick look through synoptic charts for the 30s and something stands out ,because alhough this decade was regarded as mild we still had spells of very cold weather with easterlies on occasions ,and although the winters were mild here the siberian high was quite dominant over europe at times, something that seems completely lacking in recent times.

It seems as though were in the middle of a longer term pattern change the siberian high almost non existent, with azores and bartlett highs the main players, we simply cant expect winter to make its mark without the right synoptics , but you never know when the pattern will flip thats the key !!!!!!

Hi Dave,

Yes, patterns can produce an unexpected flip. I remember working on winter charts through a period of very mild winters in the early and mid- seventies, then a dramatic change took places to much colder Arctic continental spells in the winters of the late 70s which at times were quite stunning.

C

[kold weather]

Certainly seems like those very cold set-ups have been both less common in the last 15 years and with less bite, though in recent years there at least has been a return to colder set-ups occuring a little more freqauntly, een if they don't have quite the same bite as they did in the past:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2005/...00120050225.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2005/...00120051125.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2005/...00120051227.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060228.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...00120060303.png

Of course i'm not saying that its on the scale of what we saw in the 60-80's but I'd say the last 4-6 winter months have seen that a colder set-up is as likely as it was in the 95-97 period, tohugh as I've said they've not had the same bite, though argueably the November 2005 and the late Feb-Early March cold spells were both just as potent as you'd expect even from say the colder periods in the last 100 years.

Anyway I've sort of taken it a little off topic!

Edited December 2, 2006 by kold weather

[West is Best]

Apart from the magician's trick (the same principle is used by The Hard Rock café, by the way, to make you think you're getting a bigger portion than you actually are) of making the image on the RHS larger, that view has opened my eyes to something I hadn't thought of before, or noticed, and it might be quite fundamental to our winters.

The polar ice mass is assymetrical. The continental block of America / Asia keeps warm waters away from the pole around 170w. Around our longitude the ocean is open. Obviously this has always been the case, but in our warming world, with warmer ocean currents, I suspect the ice shelf is eroding faster close to the UK than is the case on the other side of the pole.

Why does this matter? Well, all the discussion on this site regarding the polar vortex, and the assumption that we could get cold pulses impacting the UK, might be slightly flawed. In effect, the ring formed around the pole by the PFJ is going to be subtended, perhaps by 5-10 degrees, north of the UK, to reflect the location of the frozen surface below.

This might be one of the big keys in answering why, despite some otherwise (apparently) favourable indicators, the outcome is still "too" warm.

Thoughts?

SF - this is an extremely interesting point (one far beyond my competence to even pretend to be able to answer). If no-one picks up the batten here, it may be worth re-posting it on this link to see if anyone can responsd to what looks to me like a very interesting suggestion: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry846662

[carinthian]

Evening,

Interesting developments now taking place. The pump of abnormal warmth into European Russian is coming up against a developing cold pool in the West Siberian/ Ob Basin. Heavy snowfalls in this area and the Ural Range at about 60E. Could this just be the trigger to challenge the advance of the zonal Atlantic jet wind field flooding across Europe ?

C