Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[West is Best]

many of the new posters like the simplism of the reports and my aim is to keep them interested and not to be scared off.

Agreed, provided we tread carefully here Carinth my old friend in one sense. I'm all for excellence of presentation i.e simplicity of style, ease of readership etc. It's something I've constantly striven for as a University lecturer. What I would raise an eyebrow over would be lack of due rigour behind that simple style or, even worse, a thread that is simply fiction: a kind of palliative to all cold fans. Well, actually I have no problem with a fiction section providing it's made clear that it's that. This obviously isn't the case though with this thread, and has all the under-pinnings of your years of experience in metereology behind it. So somehow I hope we can maintain a healthy balance of your lovely simple way of explaining things, with a bit of good ol' back up behind it.

So, in simple terms, what do you make then of the demise of the Greenland cold pool. Good, bad or indifferent to it? Reckon it'll re-build soon? How important is Greenland do you reckon to the winter here?

Artic Temperatures

Great link.

As for the cold in western Canada, think this relates to Stratos Ferric's point. Not everywhere can be cold or mild. last year they had a record mild winter there.

Welcome to netweather.tv. Yes, most of us on here are snowmad to the point of obsession.

Hopefully most of us are primarily weather mad on net-weather ... wouldn't want anyone with any particular love or hate of any type of weather to feel in any way excluded. NW is open to all with any type of interest in weather.

Mind you, the cold weather fans do see to outnumber those of us who prefer something milder :lol:

[SMU]

Agreed, provided we tread carefully here Carinth my old friend in one sense. I'm all for excellence of presentation i.e simplicity of style, ease of readership etc. It's something I've constantly striven for as a University lecturer. What I would raise an eyebrow over would be lack of due rigour behind that simple style or, even worse, a thread that is simply fiction: a kind of palliative to all cold fans. Well, actually I have no problem with a fiction section providing it's made clear that it's that. This obviously isn't the case though with this thread, and has all the under-pinnings of your years of experience in metereology behind it. So somehow I hope we can maintain a healthy balance of your lovely simple way of explaining things, with a bit of good ol' back up behind it.

So, in simple terms, what do you make then of the demise of the Greenland cold pool. Good, bad or indifferent to it? Reckon it'll re-build soon? How important is Greenland do you reckon to the winter here?

Great link.

As for the cold in western Canada, think this relates to Stratos Ferric's point. Not everywhere can be cold or mild. last year they had a record mild winter there.

Hopefully most of us are primarily weather mad on net-weather ... wouldn't want anyone with any particular love or hate of any type of weather to feel in any way excluded. NW is open to all with any type of interest in weather.

Mind you, the cold weather fans do see to outnumber those of us who prefer something milder :lol:

A cold Greenland is IMO considered a Problem for us-

S

[West is Best]

A cold Greenland is IMO considered a Problem for us-

S

Interesting Steve. You ideally want a Greenland High but not cold pooling, am I right?

[SMU]

Interesting Steve. You ideally want a Greenland High but not cold pooling, am I right?

The heart of the cold in Winter is Always around the polar vortex- DEEP DEEP cold over greenland is indicitive of the vortex close by-

( lets not confuse it with the usual standard cold in these regions)

The best place for intense cold is adjacent east & Adjacent West of Greenland-

This is about as far EAST as you want the cold over Greenland-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119560129.gif

For Easterly scenarios to survive-

This probably the best-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621226.gif

If the vortex sits over greenland or just to the east we tend to struggle to tap the Coldest Easterlies or the Coldest Nortehrlies go to the West-

Obviously thats not the be all & end all but Eastern greenland vortex = Problem-

S

[West is Best]

Thanks for that Steve. Really interesting stuff.

[carinthian]

Thanks for that Steve. Really interesting stuff.

Morning,

Thanks WIB to your reply to my request posted yesterday (No 24)

Steves reply is always good value and that boy backs up his info with good graphics. However, he does say that this theory is not the be all and end all. We wish it was that easy.

If you can bring up the Reanalysis info to 7/2/69 ( sorry not very good at bringing up these old charts ) we will see a classic cold vortex in the Greenland Sea and high pressure values of 1055mb over the Greenland Ice cap.

I was forecasting during this period when the cold vortex moved in to the Norwegian Sea and produced a severe Northerly spell with polar lows and intense cold in its wake.

A week later the Greenland high started to collapse and the cold circulation moved into Europe ( look at charts for 14/2/69) What followed was a prolonged spell of snowy easterlies.

That was a month to look for both a classic combination of substained Polar and Pc airmass over the British Isles, that had orginated from the East Greenland Cold pool.

I will be pleased if someone can bring up these old charts for the dates I have highlighted and then you will see what I mean, hopefully!

C

[John Cox]

Morning Carinth,

Here you go just before I head out to work:

[carinthian]

Morning Carinth,

Here you go just before I head out to work:

Thanks JC

Just what I was looking for. Wish I knew how to do them ?

C

[John Cox]

Your welcome C.

The link:http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/dathistcharts.asp

Bring up the chart you want. Left click on the mouse over the chart, then right click on the mouse and "copy". Then click on the spot in your post where you want the "picture"/.Then "right" click on the mouse and "paste". There are other ways of doing this but this is the easiest.

Edited November 16, 2006 by John Cox

[West is Best]

Thanks for that Carinthian, John Cox and Steve. Interesting stuff and clearly explained!

Steve must be a happy man this morning too having been described by you Carinthian as a 'boy' :lol:

[carinthian]

Your welcome C.

The link:http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/dathistcharts.asp

Bring up the chart you want. Left click on the mouse over the chart, then right click on the mouse and "copy". Then click on the spot in your post where you want the "picture"/.Then "right" click on the mouse and "paste". There are bother ways of doing this but this is the easiest.

Thanks John,

I will have a try later. You might receive some strange looking posts!

C

Thanks for that Carinthian, John Cox and Steve. Interesting stuff and clearly explained!

Steve must be a happy man this morning too having been described by you Carinthian as a 'boy' :lol:

Hey West,

He is compared to me !

PS. Anymore thoughts about setting up a new link to talk about these issues you have raised ?

C

[carinthian]

Your welcome C.

The link:http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/dathistcharts.asp

Bring up the chart you want. Left click on the mouse over the chart, then right click on the mouse and "copy". Then click on the spot in your post where you want the "picture"/.Then "right" click on the mouse and "paste". There are other ways of doing this but this is the easiest.

jc

[West is Best]

PS. Anymore thoughts about setting up a new link to talk about these issues you have raised ?

C

Hi Carinthian - yes, it's a good idea I guess though we seem to have several threads running concurrently. I'd hate to see mild-lovers and cold-lovers never 'meeting' to discuss things in a friendly way! That's my only fear, otherwise I'll try and get round to it today.

R

[beng]

Okay so correct me if I'm wrong, but basically what we're saying is that it's okay for Greenland to be below normal (maybe even beneficial) at this time of year (indeed it should enhance the sea ice situation directly to our North) - but when we get to winter proper, we should look for that cold to transfer off the icesheet, West or East - otherwise we face a polar vortex over Greenland with a resulting zonal atlantic.

PS

Glad you came back Carinthian :lol:

Edited November 16, 2006 by beng

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian - yes, it's a good idea I guess though we seem to have several threads running concurrently. I'd hate to see mild-lovers and cold-lovers never 'meeting' to discuss things in a friendly way! That's my only fear, otherwise I'll try and get round to it today.

R

Hello West,

I think there is room for a Arctic Debate that can encompass the full spectrum of debate, including GW thoughts in a friendly and not to hostile manner that will bring thoughts from both sides of the fence. My thread is primally to observe and discuss the very latestest reports as I see it.

I think you have right qualities to deliver a lively new thread..howabout.. THE GREAT ARCTIC DEBATE.. ?

Over to you 1

C

[West is Best]

Hello West,

I think there is room for a Arctic Debate that can encompass the full spectrum of debate, including GW thoughts in a friendly and not to hostile manner that will bring thoughts from both sides of the fence.

Here we go Carinthian (and all): I've taken up the suggestion

The new over-arching thread can be found here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry830136

[carinthian]

Your welcome C.

The link:http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/dathistcharts.asp

Bring up the chart you want. Left click on the mouse over the chart, then right click on the mouse and "copy". Then click on the spot in your post where you want the "picture"/.Then "right" click on the mouse and "paste". There are other ways of doing this but this is the easiest.

John,

Your personal messenger box is coming up disabled or inbox full.

C

[John Cox]

John,

Your personal messenger box is coming up disabled or inbox full.

C

Thanks Corinthian,

Thats sorted now.

[carinthian]

Evening all,

That cold pool off East Greenland is moving into Iceland tomorrow. The Icelandic Met Office has issued a warning of "considerable" frost persisting tomorrow with inland temps not rising above -15C to -20C with the severe cold lasting into the weekend.

The coastal reports show the main polar ice edge out in the Denmark Strait 9/10 th or more of drift ice to be less than 80 miles from the Horn of Iceland. Forecast drift of sea ice is likely to bring it a little closer over the next 5 days.

C

[Polar Continental]

Evening all,

That cold pool off East Greenland is moving into Iceland tomorrow. The Icelandic Met Office has issued a warning of "considerable" frost persisting tomorrow with inland temps not rising above -15C to -20C with the severe cold lasting into the weekend.

The coastal reports show the main polar ice edge out in the Denmark Strait 9/10 th or more of drift ice to be less than 80 miles from the Horn of Iceland. Forecast drift of sea ice is likely to bring it a little closer over the next 5 days.

C

Hi carinth,

Good news indeed there, things do seem to be coming along quite nicely.

Below are a couple of Arctic ice Images, the first one from last month and the other today, the second picture clearly shows a good increase of ice concentrations. :o

Paul

[frozen_north]

Hudson Bay in Canada is starting to cool down with SST returning to normal on the West side of the sea however the East side still remains extremely warm for the time of year with SST's of over 4C above normal. There will be continued limited ice growth in the Bay over the next 7 days. The problem is also that the Ice from the North hasnt even reached the North side of the Bay which is very unusual for the time of year.

Most of the Cold air in the coming Week will be focused over Alaska and pretty much the whole of Russia East of the Ural mountains. Sibera is cooling down nicely.

[carinthian]

Hi carinth,

Good news indeed there, things do seem to be coming along quite nicely.

Below are a couple of Arctic ice Images, the first one from last month and the other today, the second picture clearly shows a good increase of ice concentrations. :o

Paul

Evening Paul,

Great graphics there. Would be nice to see that white lock into the north coast of Iceland and Jan Myen Island. Did in 1968 and 1969.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Excellent progress. Good ice formation around Novaya Zemlya and almost touching Svalbard.

:blink:

Edited November 17, 2006 by Viking141

[carinthian]

Excellent progress. Good ice formation around Novaya Zemlya and almost touching Svalbard.

:blink:

Morning Viking,

The strong windfield to our east with a southerly component has pushed well into the Arctic Barent sea sector and is presently holding back ice formation in that area you have mentioned. The warmer air and strong winds are having the effect of breaking up new ice and even pushing back the main polar ice edge from Svalbard. On the otherhand good news in the Greenland Sea with very cold airmass maintaining the ice drift into the Denmark Strait and reports of some good concentration of young and first year i fast ice further north. Considerable frost expected in Iceland today .! Hope it gets to you sometime .

C

[Mr Sleet]

Morning Viking,

The strong windfield to our east with a southerly component has pushed well into the Arctic Barent sea sector and is presently holding back ice formation in that area you have mentioned. The warmer air and strong winds are having the effect of breaking up new ice and even pushing back the main polar ice edge from Svalbard. On the otherhand good news in the Greenland Sea with very cold airmass maintaining the ice drift into the Denmark Strait and reports of some good concentration of young and first year i fast ice further north. Considerable frost expected in Iceland today .! Hope it gets to you sometime .

C

Good to see this subject back on track. Just to add my belated "welcome back" Carinthian.