Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[Stratos Ferric]

Wow. Look at all these mild anamolies: -

http://www.bridford.metsite.com/synNNWWarctis131206.gif

PP; you sure those are anomalies not actuals? I find it hard to believe that Siberia is 40 degrees colder than normal, that would be beyond record breaking I'd have thought.

Either way, even if absolute, there is notable warmth around Scandinavia and NW Russia.

[PersianPaladin]

PP; you sure those are anomalies not actuals? I find it hard to believe that Siberia is 40 degrees colder than normal, that would be beyond record breaking I'd have thought.

Either way, even if absolute, there is notable warmth around Scandinavia and NW Russia.

Lol. Sorry, I meant that it was anamalously warmer in a lot of places, with those kind of temps.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion?

I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year).

Kara sea - big positive anomaly.

Laptev sea - big positive anomaly.

Barents sea - significant positive anomaly.

Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly.

Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly.

Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly

East Siberian - no anomaly.

Beaufort Sea - no anomaly.

Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly.

Hudson Bay - no anomaly.

Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?)

Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go?

Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.

Edited December 16, 2006 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[frozen_north]

carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion?

I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year).

Kara sea - big positive anomaly.

Laptev sea - big positive anomaly.

Barents sea - significant positive anomaly.

Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly.

Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly.

Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly

East Siberian - no anomaly.

Beaufort Sea - no anomaly.

Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly.

Hudson Bay - no anomaly.

Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?)

Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go?

Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.

I dont understand where these massive positive anomolies are. I looked hard at every one and one are even way above average. Some are close to average but many are still way below average.

Hudson bay looks to be freezing over nicely now. Lets see if it can beat last year where it took till 26th December to freeze over. Theres only the east of it to go now.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I dont understand where these massive positive anomolies are. I looked hard at every one and one are even way above average. Some are close to average but many are still way below average.

Hudson bay looks to be freezing over nicely now. Lets see if it can beat last year where it took till 26th December to freeze over. Theres only the east of it to go now.

The NH total is just shy of average.The positive anomalies are compared to last year; you would suspect this means conditions at this moment are more conducive for ice formation than last year.

[J10]

There does seem to be an improving picture on a couple of weeks ago, hopefully the ice will go above average in the Northern Hemisphere, even in the Greenland area.

[carinthian]

There does seem to be an improving picture on a couple of weeks ago, hopefully the ice will go above average in the Northern Hemisphere, even in the Greenland area.

Morning all,

Fast ice formation continues in Hudson Bay and James Bay with only the East Shore and Hudson Strait open. Further south Lake Winnepeg now frozen. Sea ice being reported as far south as 60N between Baffin and Greenland. Impressive East Greenland Ice charts show a well formed polar ice edge between Greenland and Iceland out in the Denmark Strait. The southern limit of the pack has formed earlier than normal here. At long last a cold circulation is now developing in the North Barent and hopefully some formation of sea ice to expand. The high Arctic is presently experiencing some intense cold -40C widely being reported from North Greenland out into the Angara Basin-the shift in this cold pool continues to migrate towards the Euro/ Arctic sector This should increase the prospect of colder Polar Continental outbreaks into Europe. In contrast to the warmth of much of Euroope,study of the December temperatures out in the Arctic Basin so far show middle temps of 3 to 5 degrees below expected averages.

C

[Stratos Ferric]

carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion?

I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year).

Kara sea - big positive anomaly.

Laptev sea - big positive anomaly.

Barents sea - significant positive anomaly.

Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly.

Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly.

Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly

East Siberian - no anomaly.

Beaufort Sea - no anomaly.

Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly.

Hudson Bay - no anomaly.

Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?)

Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go?

Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.

AFF,

The ice mass has certainly recovered significantly over the last week or so, but the overall total is around 11.4 million km2 this year c.f. 11.1 last year. An overall difference of 3% hardly amounts to the use of words like "significant" and "big positive" used in isolation. The problem is a methematical one really which results from the fact that the various zones have different surface areas, so do not all carry equal weight. You're correct that some do have anomalies of 25% right now c.f last year, but when those areas are relatively trivial in respect of the overall whole the aomaly doesn't translate fully to the overall picture.

I tend to agree that at some point you'd expect cold air to move equatorward, but there's 360 degrees around the globe and Europe doesn't have automatic right to any share of a southward plunge.

[Stratos Ferric]

carinthian, how are things at the frozen pole now in your opinion?

I've had a brief glance at the latest charts; total NH ice area now close to average. There must be some serious, I mean, serious, cold there because many areas have positive ice gains! (Compared to last year).

Kara sea - big positive anomaly.

Laptev sea - big positive anomaly.

Barents sea - significant positive anomaly.

Greenland sea - significant positive anomaly.

Baffin/Newfoundland - significant positive anomaly.

Arctic basin - significant positive anomaly

East Siberian - no anomaly.

Beaufort Sea - no anomaly.

Canadian archipeligo - no anomaly.

Hudson Bay - no anomaly.

Chukchi sea - massive negative anomaly (currently icing over accounting for most recent gains?)

Overall: amazing cold! How high will it go?

Perhaps Europe has taken a hit for the arctic. Lots of cold air up there now... some point it will have to give you would think.

AFF,

The ice mass has certainly recovered significantly over the last week or so, but the overall total is around 11.4 million km2 this year c.f. 11.1 last year. An overall difference of 3% hardly amounts to the use of words like "significant" and "big positive" used in isolation. The problem is a methematical one really which results from the fact that the various zones have different surface areas, so do not all carry equal weight. You're correct that some do have anomalies of 25% right now c.f last year, but when those areas are relatively trivial in respect of the overall whole the aomaly doesn't translate fully to the overall picture.

I tend to agree that at some point you'd expect cold air to move equatorward, but there's 360 degrees around the globe and Europe doesn't have automatic right to any share of a southward plunge.

[Optimus Prime]

Would be interesting to know how cold Greenland is at the moment. Currently there's -40 850HPA height temperatures up there!

[carinthian]

Would be interesting to know how cold Greenland is at the moment. Currently there's -40 850HPA height temperatures up there!

Evening all,

After a week of low pressure, North of Greenland is showing a steady rise in surface air pressure over this weekend. Some intense cold air up there at the moment and very dry air with Supercooled dew point readings as low as MS 52C. Also signs of some advection of this cold air towards North Barent and Svalbard East.

Arctic Oscillation is in a strong positive mode but changes aloft can happen very quickly, so don't despair just yet about our miserable European mild start to the first third of winter. Where theres cold ,there is hope !

C

[carinthian]

Evening all,

After a week of low pressure, North of Greenland is showing a steady rise in surface air pressure over this weekend. Some intense cold air up there at the moment and very dry air with Supercooled dew point readings as low as MS 52C. Also signs of some advection of this cold air towards North Barent and Svalbard East.

Arctic Oscillation is in a strong positive mode but changes aloft can happen very quickly, so don't despair just yet about our miserable European mild start to the first third of winter. Where theres cold ,there is hope !

C

Morning,

Much better soundings coming out of West Siberia. Developing cold pool taking place . If we can get the longer wave trough to dominate from the North Barent to the Black Sea, AO should continue to decline into MS mode by early January and then winter should at long last start in Europe. I am still inclined to look to the East for cold. Much more optomistic now that the Euro High is going to be pushed away by weekend.

C

[carinthian]

Morning,

Much better soundings coming out of West Siberia. Developing cold pool taking place . If we can get the longer wave trough to dominate from the North Barent to the Black Sea, AO should continue to decline into MS mode by early January and then winter should at long last start in Europe. I am still inclined to look to the East for cold. Much more optomistic now that the Euro High is going to be pushed away by weekend.

C

Hi,

At long last we are seeing an advance of the Polar Ice edge into the North Barent Sea. The strongest drift southwards at the moment is fed from the Lomonosov Ridge (Eastern Basin ) towards Svalbard.

C

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian

Lets hope all the better indications today are sustained - we are certainly left with time to salvage something from a very poor winter so far

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Yes, signs of a polar circulation taking place up there. The PV in now on the move towards the Euro sector of the High/ Mid Arctic. Height rises in Greenland are soon to take place. Colder incurrsions into Europe now likely next week. Big change in winter pattern now happening.

C

[Optimus Prime]

Hi carinthian but how does the cold compare to this time in December 1978 across the NE? Is it cold enough to give us atleast a toned down version of the February 1991 easterly?

While it looks warm at least there is cold there.

[carinthian]

Hi carinthian but how does the cold compare to this time in December 1978 across the NE? Is it cold enough to give us atleast a toned down version of the February 1991 easterly?

While it looks warm at least there is cold there.

Hi OP,

I remember this period very well from my days down in Gatwick. The Greenland High was quite well established during much of December and the main cold pool centred on Scandinavia and the White Sea with a France Low starting to incurr some pretty cold . days in the SE. So a lot different to the present day. Of course what followed was a severe cold spell into February, about as cold and snowy as it gets in England. This winter followed a period of mild winters in the mid-seventies that also produced very little snow and frost with endless days of Bartlet set up. Still think an Easterly is our best shot for cold by Mid-Winter.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Hi Tamara,

Yes, signs of a polar circulation taking place up there. The PV in now on the move towards the Euro sector of the High/ Mid Arctic. Height rises in Greenland are soon to take place. Colder incurrsions into Europe now likely next week. Big change in winter pattern now happening.

C

Excellent news Carinth. Hopefully we will see some real winter weather soon!

Edited December 28, 2006 by Viking141

[carinthian]

Excellent news Carinth. Hopefully we will see some real winter weather!

hi Viking 141,

Changes a foot, can only be for the better. A late start to winter has been known to deliver before. Lets hope its not too long !

Time for a lager.

Cheers

C

[John Cox]

Hi Carinth,

Great news and when it come from you we all take note.

Happy New year to you and all cold lovers on NW

Edited December 28, 2006 by John Cox

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth,

Great news and when it come from you we all take note.

Happy New year to you and all cold lovers on NW

Hello John,

Better signs now and a happy New Year to you.

C

[blitzen]

Hello Carinthian, and a Happy New Year to you! Things are looking and sounding a bit better now. It may well be worth the wait yet!

Regards,

Blitzen.

[carinthian]

Hello Carinthian, and a Happy New Year to you! Things are looking and sounding a bit better now. It may well be worth the wait yet!

Regards,

Blitzen.

Evening Blitzen,

I think the models are now picking up the plots for a developing polar circulation to become more dominent in Northern Latitudes.

Maybe you will soon see some of the white stuff up there. Anyway, I am sure you will have a good New Year in Fife.

Cheers

C

[carinthian]

Hi Tamara,

Yes, signs of a polar circulation taking place up there. The PV in now on the move towards the Euro sector of the High/ Mid Arctic. Height rises in Greenland are soon to take place. Colder incurrsions into Europe now likely next week. Big change in winter pattern now happening.

C

Evening, Some impressive cold air in the Arctic Ocean at the moment with an intense cold pool at about 85 degrees, NE of Greenland. Some of the AWS recordings of -40C. This cold heavy air gravitating out of the pole is likely to mix with the warmer westerly circulation along the plane of contact. It is here where eddies set up. Expect some powerful winter storms to develop across the latitudes of the British Isles and into Denmark and N Germany. Computer plots will be working overtime and changing by the hour. It is here that good old forecasting rules come into play.

C

[Polar Continental]

Evening, Some impressive cold air in the Arctic Ocean at the moment with an intense cold pool at about 85 degrees, NE of Greenland. Some of the AWS recordings of -40C. This cold heavy air gravitating out of the pole is likely to mix with the warmer westerly circulation along the plane of contact. It is here where eddies set up. Expect some powerful winter storms to develop across the latitudes of the British Isles and into Denmark and N Germany. Computer plots will be working overtime and changing by the hour. It is here that good old forecasting rules come into play.

C

Hi Carintian, Happy New Year,

Some good news beginning to filter in from quite a few sources at last, from your self, Steve M, even the models are trying a bit harder. Lets hope we get some good old fashioned weather when these old forecasting rules are used.

Paul

[West is Best]

Anyone see this report out today?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6218333.stm