Carinthians latest Arctic reports

[frozen_north]

Yes summer 2004 was good if you liked the rain.

[carinthian]

Evening,

A plunge of exceptionally cold Arctic air is currently affecting Baffin Island and most of the NW Archipelgo. Temps as low as -50C. That same air mass will engage the developing Nly jet just to the west of the British Isles with-in the next 120 hours. Expect the coldest spell of the winter with deepest cold air probable over Ireland and severe night frosts, even in the South.

C

[Snowyowl9]

Evening,

A plunge of exceptionally cold Arctic air is currently affecting Baffin Island and most of the NW Archipelgo. Temps as low as -50C. That same air mass will engage the developing Nly jet just to the west of the British Isles with-in the next 120 hours. Expect the coldest spell of the winter with deepest cold air probable over Ireland and severe night frosts, even in the South.

C

Hi Carinthian

Great to see the north wind has a real bite for next week.

Not that many archive charts with upper air that cold over us in the past 30 years for around the same date.

Here`s one from 1987.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870320.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219870320.gif

Different set-up.

Edited March 14, 2007 by Snowyowl9

[carinthian]

Evening,

A plunge of exceptionally cold Arctic air is currently affecting Baffin Island and most of the NW Archipelgo. Temps as low as -50C. That same air mass will engage the developing Nly jet just to the west of the British Isles with-in the next 120 hours. Expect the coldest spell of the winter with deepest cold air probable over Ireland and severe night frosts, even in the South.

C

Evening all,

That source of cold air highlighted above is now transferring into the East Greenland Basin. Sounding from this area are already are becoming important to the forecasts for the next 3 to 4 days as the cold Arctic air pushes into Western Europe and will be evaluated twice a day at Met Office HQ. Latest indications show that a Northerly wind flow is becoming established at all levels with advection of cold air through all levels. Reports from the Arctic Basin show increased moisture levels in the middle to lower atmosphere. That already indicates trough or possible PL formation. So over the next few days barometric tendencies will be watched in the South Spitsbergen Seas and around Jan Mayen in the Iceland Basin.

One things for sure we are going to experience our coldest spell of the "winter season " with some very low temperatures, particuarly night time freezing.

C

[carinthian]

Evening all,

That source of cold air highlighted above is now transferring into the East Greenland Basin. Sounding from this area are already are becoming important to the forecasts for the next 3 to 4 days as the cold Arctic air pushes into Western Europe and will be evaluated twice a day at Met Office HQ. Latest indications show that a Northerly wind flow is becoming established at all levels with advection of cold air through all levels. Reports from the Arctic Basin show increased moisture levels in the middle to lower atmosphere. That already indicates trough or possible PL formation. So over the next few days barometric tendencies will be watched in the South Spitsbergen Seas and around Jan Mayen in the Iceland Basin.

One things for sure we are going to experience our coldest spell of the "winter season " with some very low temperatures, particuarly night time freezing.

C

..

Brr.. current wind chill factors up in East Greenland..-60F..thats got your name on it !

C

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

..

Brr.. current wind chill factors up in East Greenland..-60F..thats got your name on it !

C

Hi C

I posted on the model thread about the intense cold in the arctic at present..so intense it has forced the abandonment of an AGW exhibition on the 'ridiculously warm' arctic. Temps with windchill of -100 experienced/reported......very severe. This is a very potent northerly for march in any 'era'

BFTP

Edited March 16, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[carinthian]

Hi C

I posted on the model thread about the intense cold in the arctic at present..so intense it has forced the abandonment of an AGW exhibition on the 'ridiculously warm' arctic. Temps with windchill of -100 experienced/reported......very severe. This is a very potent northerly for march in any 'era'

BFTP

Hi BFTP,

Yes, some very cold temperatures this season in the high Arctic. Potential to deliver some extreme cold all winter, but never arrived until next week. However, better late than never. A good reminder as you indicate that intense cold can still occur, even in Mid- Late March. If the wind backs Easterly and brings cloud in, temps can still struggle to get much above 0c , even at this time of the years. This northerly, looks likely to be unstable with snow at times and with some potent night time frosts, even down to the south coast.

[Yorkshire Snow]

Hi Carinth,

Just wondered how the Extent of Arctic sea ice is now shaping up. Looks as though cold has bottled up over the past few weeks in the Arctic?

What are your thoughts as compared to recent years?

Also, nice to see you posting again.

Regards

YS

[carinthian]

Evening all,

That source of cold air highlighted above is now transferring into the East Greenland Basin. Sounding from this area are already are becoming important to the forecasts for the next 3 to 4 days as the cold Arctic air pushes into Western Europe and will be evaluated twice a day at Met Office HQ. Latest indications show that a Northerly wind flow is becoming established at all levels with advection of cold air through all levels. Reports from the Arctic Basin show increased moisture levels in the middle to lower atmosphere. That already indicates trough or possible PL formation. So over the next few days barometric tendencies will be watched in the South Spitsbergen Seas and around Jan Mayen in the Iceland Basin.

One things for sure we are going to experience our coldest spell of the "winter season " with some very low temperatures, particuarly night time freezing.

C

Hi all,

Latest evidence provided by the East Greenland soundings continue to show the advection of increasingly cold air through all layers. The deepest pool is currenly pushing south/south east out of Greenland towards Jan Mayen into the South Greenland .At this stage, I would suggest that the deepest cut of cold air will be into Ireland and Scotland by late Sunday and transferring to much on the country by Monday. Moisture levels continue to indicate snowfall at times for many and -ve dew points with lengthy advection of Arctic air should see snow to sea level.

C

[carinthian]

Hi all,

Latest evidence provided by the East Greenland soundings continue to show the advection of increasingly cold air through all layers. The deepest pool is currenly pushing south/south east out of Greenland towards Jan Mayen into the South Greenland .At this stage, I would suggest that the deepest cut of cold air will be into Ireland and Scotland by late Sunday and transferring to much on the country by Monday. Moisture levels continue to indicate snowfall at times for many and -ve dew points with lengthy advection of Arctic air should see snow to sea level.

C

Evening,

Upwind, Jan Mayen looks like to enter its coldest few days of this winter. Max temps at sea level progged at -10C or less during tomorrow and Monday with significant wind chill developmenting. Atmospheric soundings do indicate some instability at 700mb and with upper air temps at 500mb likely to drop below -40C that seems ripe for trough or PL development to head towards our shores over the coming few days as the cold air advection continues to push south.

C

[John Cox]

Hi C,

Great to hear of such low temps for you.

Enjoy

[carinthian]

Hi all,

Latest evidence provided by the East Greenland soundings continue to show the advection of increasingly cold air through all layers. The deepest pool is currenly pushing south/south east out of Greenland towards Jan Mayen into the South Greenland .At this stage, I would suggest that the deepest cut of cold air will be into Ireland and Scotland by late Sunday and transferring to much on the country by Monday. Moisture levels continue to indicate snowfall at times for many and -ve dew points with lengthy advection of Arctic air should see snow to sea level.

C

Afternoon all,

Further to the above report, seems the coldest pool of air is pushing into Torshaven today. An ice day there with temps currently -2C , blowing snow, gusting to +60mph and dew points continuing to fall. Latest atmospheric soundings do indicte to 850mb temperatures could go as low as -15C. 500mb temp around -50C.

C

[carinthian]

Hi Carinth,

Just wondered how the Extent of Arctic sea ice is now shaping up. Looks as though cold has bottled up over the past few weeks in the Arctic?

What are your thoughts as compared to recent years?

Also, nice to see you posting again.

Regards

YS

hi yorkshire Snow,

Northern Hemisphere ice extent has probably peaked by now. Temperature data takes quite a bit of time to evaluate. My experience tells me that the High Arctic has been quite a bit colder than average with the Middle to Lower Arctic regions warmer than average, generally. The North American winter starting later this season, with NE Canada/ Baffin recording some severe cold. The Euro/ Siberian sector less cold than last winter. Ice coverage to have peaked at 14.25 million sq Km, thats more than the past 2 winters, but not by a great deal. Summer retention will again be closely monitored.

Presently, fast ice floes along the East Greenland coastline and the Siberian Arctic Rim as it cannot make any in roads against the old ice and so the extra force starts the break up of the young thinner ice.

C

[carinthian]

hi yorkshire Snow,

Northern Hemisphere ice extent has probably peaked by now. Temperature data takes quite a bit of time to evaluate. My experience tells me that the High Arctic has been quite a bit colder than average with the Middle to Lower Arctic regions warmer than average, generally. The North American winter starting later this season, with NE Canada/ Baffin recording some severe cold. The Euro/ Siberian sector less cold than last winter. Ice coverage to have peaked at 14.25 million sq Km, thats more than the past 2 winters, but not by a great deal. Summer retention will again be closely monitored.

Presently, fast ice floes along the East Greenland coastline and the Siberian Arctic Rim as it cannot make any in roads against the old ice and so the extra force starts the break up of the young thinner ice.

C

Evening,

The record low temperature at sea level for April in Greenland was recorded at -42C in 1984. Looking at the latest GFS prog temperatures for Northern Greenland for April the 1st 2007 this could be broken. Food for thought !

C

[Gray-Wolf]

If we are losing 'old ice' each summer then the ice extent over winter becomes less and less important as, to melt 'old ice' it must melt the single season ice too. Maybe by Aug we'll know how good or bad an arctic season it was!

[oldsnowywizard]

bad news at the moment, ice levels took a bit of a nose dive of the last few weeks with levels much lower than the same time last year. i would expect Greenland sea ice to increase with the cold predicted to build in this area this week. Baffin seems to be doing much better than this time last year though so good for the polar bears.. antartic ice levels seem to be increasing..does anyone know of any sites with similar charts for Antartica?

[parmenides3]

Looks like the seasonal max has been reached early this year, perhaps a couple of weeks earlier than average. The Winter max area was a bit higher than for the past two years, but will still probably come in at about the third lowest on the record since 1979. There is still an East-West split in tempratures and coverage, but easily the most drastic changes in the past couple of weeks have been in the Barents Sea, where the anomaly is currently around -0.5 million Km2.

The total anomaly seems to have hit a new record low. In 1995, (September) there was a spike which brought ice cover to ~1.5Million Km2 below average. This week, the anomaly is around -1.7 M. There is a very large variability, so this probably won't last, but, as such a large negative anomaly has only occurred once previously, it could be argued to be exceptional.

I'd have to leave it to Carinth. to reach conclusions about what, if anything, the implications are likely to be for the coming seasons.

:)P

Edited April 2, 2007 by parmenides3

[summer blizzard]

Looks like the seasonal max has been reached early this year, perhaps a couple of weeks earlier than average. The Winter max area was a bit higher than for the past two years, but will still probably come in at about the third lowest on the record since 1979. There is still an East-West split in tempratures and coverage, but easily the most drastic changes in the past couple of weeks have been in the Barents Sea, where the anomaly is currently around -0.5 million Km2.

The total anomaly seems to have hit a new record low. In 1995, (September) there was a spike which brought ice cover to ~1.5Million Km2 below average. This week, the anomaly is around -1.7 M. There is a very large variability, so this probably won't last, but, as such a large negative anomaly has only occurred once previously, it could be argued to be exceptional.

I'd have to leave it to Carinth. to reach conclusions about what, if anything, the implications are likely to be for the coming seasons.

:)P

This kind of decifit has probably been reached before, however satelites may not of picked it up, i would estimate a return date of once every ten to fifteen years for this to happen.

[parmenides3]

This kind of decifit has probably been reached before, however satelites may not of picked it up, i would estimate a return date of once every ten to fifteen years for this to happen.

I can't rule out the possibility that you are right, but I have found no evidence for it in the records of sea ice cover or sea ice extent; the latter goes back about a hundred years. There's no sign of a 10-15 year signal which is readily apparent on the CT 'Tale of the tape', the larger scale anomaly chart.

According to NSIDC, the March max this year was about 0.4 million square miles below the long-term average. In the meantime, here's a new toy to play with from the NSIDC; an interactive 'atlas of the cryosphere'. There is some excellent detail when you zoom in on the vairous parts of different maps:

http://nsidc.org/data/atlas/

:)P

[Duncan McAlister]

Interestingly, despite this record anomaly, it would appear an ice bridge has formed between Greenland and Iceland. Wasn't it mentioned earlier this year that this hasn't happened since the 1960s?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.1.jpg

[parmenides3]

Duncan: good spot. The CT and MMAB charts show ice formation right across the Denmark Strait; the IWICOS/IOMASA and NATICE charts do not; this is a classic example of how different models interpret the data from the same satellite info. I would suggest that there is probably ice across the area, but probably not at sufficient concentrations (as a percentage of sea covered) to constitute an actual 'bridge'. I'll be happy to be proved wrong, though.

In the meantime, I spotted this paper: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL029016.shtml

In the conclusions, the abstract suggests that the Arctic currents may be shifting from a cyclonic back to an anticyclonic pattern. What are the implications of this, if it turns out to be correct?

:)P

[summer blizzard]

Carinthian, based on current ice trends, what pattern do you expect this summer, i found your thoughts last summer to be quite correct.

[BrickFielder]

With atlantic weather system blasting across the UK and up into Noway and thus taking warm air up into the Barents we should not be surprised that there is a lack of ice up there. Remarkably compared to last year all other areas look reasonably well covered. This is actually typical of a strong westerly QBO just before christmas leading to a positive AO during the winter.

Interesting article on the pressure at the artic sea bed and I think they are saying that the distribution of less salty water( melted ice) is consistent with winds across the artic changing from cyclonic conditions to anti cyclonic. This could be thought of as a swing to a negative AO but thats not really true. This suggests a move to more deep cold being over the artic (High) with perhaps wetter conditions for the UK( low pressure circling the high).

[Stratos Ferric]

Looks like the seasonal max has been reached early this year, perhaps a couple of weeks earlier than average. The Winter max area was a bit higher than for the past two years, but will still probably come in at about the third lowest on the record since 1979. There is still an East-West split in tempratures and coverage, but easily the most drastic changes in the past couple of weeks have been in the Barents Sea, where the anomaly is currently around -0.5 million Km2.

The total anomaly seems to have hit a new record low. In 1995, (September) there was a spike which brought ice cover to ~1.5Million Km2 below average. This week, the anomaly is around -1.7 M. There is a very large variability, so this probably won't last, but, as such a large negative anomaly has only occurred once previously, it could be argued to be exceptional.

I'd have to leave it to Carinth. to reach conclusions about what, if anything, the implications are likely to be for the coming seasons.

:)P

One would certainly have to conclude that with such a rapid drop off the ice that was there was only very thin. A few of us have made the point previously that the ice surface area may be telling only part of the story. Given the remarkable anomalies in the polar regions this winter it's not really surprising that we are seeing an early thaw now that temperatures are drifting towards the point at which day time maxima frequently climb above freezing at the peripheries.

This kind of decifit has probably been reached before, however satelites may not of picked it up, i would estimate a return date of once every ten to fifteen years for this to happen.

SB, that doesn't really stack up if you look at the historical record that's available. The ice sheet has been in decline steadily for twenty or so years; although it does depend o the baseline used it's unlikely that such a large anomaly occurred when the ice sheet was more massive, and by inference temperatures must have been colder on the whole.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SB, that doesn't really stack up if you look at the historical record that's available. The ice sheet has been in decline steadily for twenty or so years; although it does depend o the baseline used it's unlikely that such a large anomaly occurred when the ice sheet was more massive, and by inference temperatures must have been colder on the whole.

SF

Interestingly the ice sheet was larger back in the 30s but temps were warmer in tha arctic back then than now.

BFTP